Help the Fight Against COVID-19

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Someone posted this earlier in the thread and I've been reminded of it often since.

The numbers over the next month are going to melt a lot of brains.
 
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I am not sure where the number of fatalities is coming from but watching Worldmeters it is grim.
if we look at closed cases not ongoing ,that have had an outcome ,the death vs recovered is much higher ,approaching the 20% mark in some places
That's been my chief concern. I'm no statistical expert, but I think closed cases represent one of the best measures available. They're data as opposed to projections, and they're not skewed by currently-active cases whose outcome is unknown.

I've been watching the closed-case fatality rate steadily rise. Three weeks ago, it was one in thirteen. Today, it's one in five.
 
Washington, DC: As states around the country issue "stay-at-home" orders amid the coronavirus pandemic, firearm and ammunition retailers have been designated an "essential service," according to updated guidance from the federal government.
Christopher Krebs, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, identified "firearm and ammunition product manufacturers, retailers, importers, distributors, and shooting ranges" as critical infrastructure.

:rolleyes:
 
Priorities seem in check with expectations

Civilian militia's all over the US must be on code red by now.
I wonder how many N95 masks these guys have stockpiled?
My guess? Their ratio of bullets to masks ~25,000 to 1.

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Sinophobia

Yup, and it bother's me.
I started working with China manufacturing partners back in the 80s.
Have been to China so many times I can't remember.
Spent time in Hong Kong, Fuzhou, Nanjing, Ningbo, Shanghai, and all over the Guangdong province.
I have many long time friends over there and we keep in touch even though I'm retired.

Sinophobia = :mad: :mad: :mad:
 
This is not a race, and there is too many Sinophobia at some western media and in the mouth of some western leaders.
Sure, it isn't a race. And the first part of your post is reasonably persuasive; I'll want to see the kinds of assertions you're making backed up elsewhere. I'll be on the lookout, and I'm willing to be persuaded.

But, sorry to say, the claim of rampant Sinophobia doesn't help your argument to persuade. I think you'd have been better served to leave it out.

I'm not living under a rock; and yet I'm aware of no powerful and widespread Sinophobia in the U.S., generally. That is to say: I don't see any widespread inclination of persons in the U.S. (or the wider world for that matter) to have negative reactions towards persons from the ROC (Taiwan), or Hong Kong, or towards citizens of the PRC, or towards naturalized citizens of the U.S. of Chinese descent. (And celebrities of Chinese nationality have a better reputation in the U.S. than celebrities of American nationality do.)

Being a bit of a Sinophile myself (for family reasons), I think I'd have been inclined to notice it if Sinophobia were a widespread problem. But of the various kinds of racial tensions at play in the modern world, Sinophobia doesn't rank very high on a sensibly-arranged list of priorities.

(Note that I say, "priority list." I am describing something in relative terms. It's an imperfect world, and there are innumerable problems in it, both large and small. Of course wherever there is a person who, for some incomprehensible reason, has an automatic negative reaction to persons of Chinese derivation, that person's prejudice is a problem for themselves and, proportionate to the reach of their influence, to the world-at-large. Of course I don't deny that. But for Sinophobia in general to be a big problem, on par with climate change and nuclear proliferation and COVID-19, or even a moderate problem like consumer indebtedness, it would need to be far more widespread and influential than it currently is.)

In reply, you might complain, "You have only mentioned Taiwan and Hong Kong. What about mainland China?"

But you see, that's precisely my point.

I don't think there is widespread, influential Sinophobia in the West (where "Sino" is a prefix to denote things associated with China generally, such as citizens of the PRC, as well as the ROC, and Hong Kong, and U.S. citizens of Chinese ancestry). But I do think there is concern about, and no small irritation at, the recent actions actions of the government on the mainland.

The mainland government, of course, cannot be said to be representative of the people. That's a claim only democratic republics can make, and even democratic republics make such claims very imperfectly. (For example, our friend @Donnie B. here is an American, but I think I'm safe in saying that he regards some behaviors of the current U.S. administration to be distasteful, things he wouldn't willingly identify with. He sees -- he can correct me if I'm wrong about this -- some distinction between himself and the current U.S. president. Now that's true even in a democratic republic. How much more so in mainland China?)

So it's perfectly logical to draw a line of distinction between all things Sino (which one can respect, admire, even love on account of family and friends, etc.) while being skeptical of the current regime on the mainland, and especially some of its recent decisions.

(I don't see how one could possibly disagree with that thesis: To disagree would be like saying that, just because one thought Henry VIII was a bit of a bastard, one necessarily also had negative feelings towards all things British, from the Venerable Bede to the Beatles!)

And of course, that current regime -- one particular structuring of government, run by one narrow set of personalities, during one tiny window of time in a 3,000 year history -- has done some concerning things recently. Does anyone deny that? A "phobia," as I understand the term, refers to irrational negative reaction. It is not proper to use it to describe a rational concern devoid of emotional content.

So my thesis is as follows: Sino-phobia (with "Sino" referencing China writ-large, and "phobia" meaning irrational negative affect) exists but is not common or influential enough to merit much concern (not when so many other things in life are more common and more alarming). But doubt about the benevolence of the Xi regime, given recent history, is more common, and I think it is reasonable that it be so.
 
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The implication is: the numbers from the rest of the world corroborate the numbers from China, which refutes your assertion that the numbers from China are a lie.
Please look again at my original post: I didn't assert. That suggests a confidence above-and-beyond what I have. I expressed skepticism (pretty strongly) and then asked for arguments to the contrary.

A person who asks for arguments to the contrary is willing to be persuaded. I'm willing.

Re: "numbers from the rest of the world...refutes your [suspicion]": I'm sorry, you'll have to spell that out for me. How do the more-reliable numbers from Italy, Germany, South Korea, Taiwan, or Hong Kong, serve to refute my suspicion that the numbers from mainland PRC are not reliable?

To clarify: I think all the numbers, worldwide, are unreliable in certain ways; but I'm proposing (without being married to it!) that the numbers from mainland China warrant suspicion to a degree, and for reasons, that aren't equally true of Italy, Germany, South Korea, Taiwan, or Hong Kong. So, any argument would need to focus on the distinctions either in the plausibility of the data from the one source (as compared to the others), or the mode of data-gathering in the one (as compared to the others), or the general openness to free-flow-of-information in the one (as compared to the others). It would not be on-point merely to say that Hong Kong's experience is similar to Italy's, for example, since Hong Kong is not at issue.
 
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Yup, and it bother's me.
I started working with China manufacturing partners back in the 80s.
Have been to China so many times I can't remember.
Spent time in Hong Kong, Fuzhou, Nanjing, Ningbo, Shanghai, and all over the Guangdong province.
I have many long time friends over there and we keep in touch even though I'm retired.

Sinophobia = :mad: :mad: :mad:
You should understand it better.

I had a chance to try out for the US Olympic Ping Pong team... I was being trained by Mr. Cheung. And on a diet of real Chinese...not American Chinese... I'm talking cucumber & beef with white rice.

One thing he imposed on me was it takes a long time to earn trust, and a very short time to loose it. This is the way.

And Mr. Cheung quickly became my ex-ping pong teacher...... because of Linda Sally
And theres a lot to be said about that
 
I'm sorry, you'll have to spell that out for me.

You said:
it's pretty silly to think Hong Kong, alone, is accounting for 20% of all cases in the whole country, despite having only 1% of the population.

Yeah, I'm not buying that.

I'm saying you'll find comparable numbers in New York and the US, so I wouldn't be so quick to accuse China of lying about the numbers.
 
You said:

I'm saying you'll find comparable numbers in New York and the US, so I wouldn't be so quick to accuse China of lying about the numbers.
I feel I've already answered that objection: It gets the timeline in reverse, bass-ackwards. The fact that the numerical relationship between Hong Kong and the mainland is what we would expect if the pandemic started in Hong Kong and then spread to the mainland, is precisely one of the things that's hinkey about it.

Now, that "hinkeyness" could, in principle, be explained. But I don't currently have an explanation, and we have some smart, well-informed people on this forum but they haven't yet offered me an explanation.

Doesn't mean there isn't an explanation out there. But until I have it in-hand, I can't find any reason not to find the relationship...hinkey.
 
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Just looked some stuff up. The population of Hubei, China is 60 million.
When it got bad they shut the entire thing down and everyone started wearing masks.

According to John Hopkins Hubei has 3,193 deaths to date.
.005% of the population.

USA is 330 million. We took our damn time responding to things.
4,361 deaths.
.001%. For now..... :(

Germany: 83 million. They also clamped down hard. 858 deaths.
.001%.

In case this was missed.
 
You should understand it better.
...
And Mr. Cheung quickly became my ex-ping pong teacher...... because of Linda Sally
Well, see, that's a real thing that happened in your life, but that's exactly the kind of emotional association I'm trying to avoid.

It probably wouldn't be as safe for me to ask the question I'm asking if it weren't for all the positive associations I have with things Chinese (or "Sino"), and the lack -- apart from the very thing at issue -- of negative associations. And of course I'm approaching this in an analytical, even bookish, kind of way, as is my wont.

If anyone's getting riled, then (a.) it isn't me, (b.) it shouldn't be either me or any of my interlocutors, since that would undermine the kind of analytical approach I'm after. But heavy personal history could do just that.

So, let's not go there, if you don't mind.
 
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@Donnie B.:

In case this was missed.
Hey, yeah, I saw that. Keep in mind that I'm not questioning the validity of the early death-counts in Hubei at all.

I'm skeptical of the number of cases being reported after the lockdown, throughout the mainland, as hovering perpetually between 80,000 and 81,500 for over a month. Since February.

Please note that that's cases, and it's throughout the mainland.

I've already pointed out how the proportion between Hong Kong and the mainland is what we'd expect if it started in Hong Kong and later hit the mainland, not the other way around.

But since we know it started in Wuhan, and got as far as Hong Kong, isn't it reasonable to assume Wuhan and Hong Kong are not the only two cities it reached in the whole of the PRC?

And, supposing there have been and will continue to be outbreaks elsewhere (however swift and, uh, muscular the response), is it reasonable to expect the numbers in the whole mainland to look just like the numbers you'd expect if the only mainland outbreak was in one province which had been utterly shut-down?

And, even supposing that every outbreak spot in the entire mainland were shut-down as thoroughly as Hubei, how well would that dovetail with the PRC government's repeated insistence that the outbreak is concluded and the relevant manufacturing facilities are all getting back to work, with their output trending upward?

Indeed, if the manufacturing facilities in Hubei are ramping production back up, how does that square with Hubei remaining shut down? ...indeed, shut down sufficiently tightly to produce a corresponding long-term plateauing of cases?

Am I the only one seeing the multiple avenues of inconsistency in all that?

Now, I can think of one comparatively innocent explanation: Testing, or test-counting, is limited in some way. Perhaps not even with the intent of producing that hinkey unchanging number. No one would blame the PRC government for that; heaven knows testing has been plenty limited in a lot of other places, also!

But in that case, we'd have to assume that the mainland is more like Hong Kong (or maybe like Hong Kong was two weeks ago, for spots that didn't get their first infection as early as Hong Kong did). Fair enough; if an actual increase in infections is being masked by a lack of testing or test-counting in other affected regions, how much would the real case number differ from the reported one?
 
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No.
Now what?
Good question.

Until an argument arises to persuade us otherwise, I propose that the numbers from mainland PRC be given "The Mark McGwire Approach."

We know what was hinkey about McGwire's record: He was on steroids. But does anyone know what his record would have looked like without the 'roids? No. We can suppose, we can guess, we can hypothesize. But we certainly can't assert with confidence that his record would have been especially admirable.

Consequently his stats remain in the history-books, but with an asterisk beside them: "* This ain't as great as it looks."

We don't even know precisely what's hinkey about the PRC mainland narrative and figures. We see inconsistencies; we say to ourselves "something doesn't add up here," but the best we can do is hypothesize about what the real numbers ought to be.

Given that, I think we should mentally put a big asterisk ( * ) next to the PRC numbers whenever they're reported, and especially when they're held up as an object of admiration. That asterisk should point us to a mental footnote: " * Always presuming these numbers are close to reality, which we have good reason to suppose they aren't."

Look, we have more-reliable, less-inconsistent numbers from other countries, don't we? I mean, numbers that give us reason to admire and imitate their approaches to the pandemic. South Korea? Germany? (I did see someone elsewhere state that causes-of-death were handled a bit eccentrically in Germany and couldn't be directly compared to the same stats elsewhere, but I'm having trouble finding that link again; sorry. But as long as that doesn't really change the final figure, Germany looks pretty good.)

What prompted my original post was a video I saw describing the right way to graph death rates from COVID-19 (saying that one should use a logarithmic scale on the Y-axis, for example). It said that the purpose of doing so was to distinguish places that were "doing it right" from those (like the U.S., at least in some states) that weren't. All well and good, and I loved the video; it had lots of nerdy in-the-weeds analytical stuff. Its only failing, I thought, was that it showed both South Korea and China with downward trends on the increase-in-cases (logarithmic), and then went on to tout China (I'm not sure it mentioned South Korea) as an example for imitation. And I thought to myself, "South Korea, I have no reason to doubt. But what about China...?" And that's when I started looking into it, and feeling that asterisk growing in the back of my mind.

Fair 'nuff?
 
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