Waitlist Email

Shai`tan said:
I thought you are supposed to actually Sign for the Item.
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You are. They suspended the signatures due to COVID for about a year. They would ring my doorbell and the box would be right by the door and they would stand at the edge of the porch and ask if they could sign for me. This guy didn't do that. The last FedEx package that I received that required a signature they had me sign for it. They said they went back to getting the signatures a while ago.
 
Greg Ferguson said:
Recently they have been, but previously it was a few minutes/day. That's typical for the waitlists.

Here's one of the things I'm tracking… NOTE: This is updated to remove two data points that were suspiciously out of range. The 26m point on 10/18 seems accurate because there were fourteen invitations added to the list that day, which was in-line with eleven the day before. It's good to see the line trending up.

View attachment 90925
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Loving these charts!

On the FM9 Waitlist Tracker Google doc, it looks like it went from at least as early as 5:47PM to 6:05PM on 10/27, which is at least 18min, which is even better than 14min.
 
Shahar said:
From what I can tell they ship around 5-8 units a day, check out the google spreadsheet and that will give you a very rough estimate. For instance, now we are on row ~90, and I’m on row ~140, so that will be 50 more rows divided by 5 which is approximately 10 business days worse case scenario.
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My tracking is based on the entries in this thread, of which we currently have 150 with invitations that seem accurate and were not part of the initial pre-invitation list of movers and shakers who reported back. We have no idea how many people were on that pre-invitation list, but we do know it took Fractal about two weeks processing shipments before we saw entries from those who are not in the upper echelon. How many units did Fractal ship daily in that interim? We don't know and we don't need to know; That's something I'd consider proprietary and confidential if I was at Fractal.

We know that Fractal announced the FM9 in multiple places, not just on this forum, so the odds are really good there are a lot more people on the list than we see here. The numbers hint at that because the people on the thread who reported invitations daily ranged from 1 to 14, which broke down to 6.33 units average shipped daily since the "regulars" started getting invitations. That number hardly seems realistic in light of Fractal saying:

We are floored and flattered by the absolutely incredible number of people who have signed up for the FM9 waitlist.
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So, I'm sure they're sending a lot more per day, just not necessarily to people on the thread, OR the Google sheet, especially since we've seen 14 invitations in one day. That number is probably a lot higher, but again, we don't need to know, and I'd rather Fractal not say.
 
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Lopp said:
Loving these charts!

On the FM9 Waitlist Tracker Google doc, it looks like it went from at least as early as 5:47PM to 6:05PM on 10/27, which is at least 18min, which is even better than 14min.
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I periodically check the sheet, because not everyone is reporting here. 14 minutes was reported on this thread; I think there was one that was suspicious so I might have pulled it. I also look at the entries in the thread a few days later because sometimes people edit their entry.
 
Greg Ferguson said:
I periodically check the sheet, because not everyone is reporting here. 14 minutes was reported on this thread; I think there was one that was suspicious so I might have pulled it. I also look at the entries in the thread a few days later because sometimes people edit their entry.
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You are confusing yourself by using number of minutes as a measurement of progress. Because it assumes a linear amount of requests/hour, which is unrealistic, its more like a downward slope. Number of units shipped per day vs number of outstanding orders is a better gauge of progress. You even came up with 6.33 units per day, which is exactly in the range I specified (5 to 8).
 
Now that you mention it though, I think i remember Matt or someone saying their tongue was tired licking envelopes and stamps, so…
 
Shahar said:
You are confusing yourself by using number of minutes as a measurement of progress. Because it assumes a linear amount of requests/hour, which is unrealistic, its more like a downward slope. Number of units shipped per day vs number of outstanding orders is a better gauge of progress. You even came up with 6.33 units per day, which is exactly in the range I specified (5 to 8).
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I’m not confusing myself, I understand that’s exactly how it works. This isn’t my first waitlist and I’ve watched the progress before.

As they progress through the waitlist list we’ll see the difference between minimum and maximum times from the waitlist that are processed daily increase. It’s not linear, and initially it’s a slight change. We’re already starting to see the curve climb, but it’s going to get much better as we go.

There are different ways to display the data. I chose this one.
 
So many unknowns. But this community here, as a proxy for the larger population, is what we have, and it seems Greg’s done the best we can with the data we have…

Curious if you have an insight from past experience on the long tail we expect. I would guess that the first day is the biggest number of people jumping on the waitlist, then the next couple of days are probably fairly sizable as people convince themselves, and then it probably starts to tail off drastically and get down to some very long tail.
 
Fireproof said:
I would guess that the first day is the biggest number of people jumping on the waitlist, then the next couple of days are probably fairly sizable as people convince themselves, and then it probably starts to tail off drastically and get down to some very long tail.
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Exactly. We also have no idea of what an endpoint would be so it’s really hard to compute the percentage completed.
 
Hi,

Who can I contact to confirm that I am on the FM9 list? I did not get the automated reply, and I think I've sent the e-mail two times, so not aure if I've been blocked or something.
 
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