Help the Fight Against COVID-19

Status
Not open for further replies.
Cases per million are way, way low still, but that's not a real number. They'll increase significantly and quickly as more people get tested because they will now include more infected people rather than just folks with obvious symptoms. And the "real" number will be 10x that. I wonder how people will take it when they discover that the only way through this wringer is to get the virus and acquire immunity. That's not quite obvious from the current messaging if you're in the US, and it IMO should be. If you don't get it now, you'll get it in the fall. When they say "flatten the curve", the area under the curve stays about the same: 50-70% of the US population, same as H1N1 and other epidemics.
 
plexi59 said:
I wonder how people will take it when they discover that the only way through this wringer is to get the virus and acquire immunity. That's not quite obvious from the current messaging if you're in the US, and it IMO should be. If you don't get it now, you'll get it in the fall. When they say "flatten the curve", the area under the curve stays about the same: 50-70% of the US population, same as H1N1 and other epidemics.
Click to expand...
You say that, but you’re wiping down your steering wheel, shifter, and door handle before you get out of your car..? I don’t get it.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: jon
You don't want to be sick when everyone else is and when there's no proven therapeutic. Remember, I live in Wuhan, WA. I fully expect I will eventually get the virus.
 
plexi59 said:
You don't want to be sick when everyone else is and when there's no proven therapeutic.
Click to expand...
Right. But I think your suggested message of “get the virus and acquire immunity” would only work against that goal.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: jon
Donnie B. said:
Re: masks
you folks know you're screwed if it gets in your eye(s) too?
Click to expand...

Masks, unless wear with full protective equipment, are to protect others from you.

You could be asymptomatic and still spreading the virus or other germs. Wearing the mask is out of respect for others, even if there were no Coronavirus crisis.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...ce-saving-face-chinese-communities-cannot-be?

"To Hongkongers, wearing a face mask is considered to be a noble act in these difficult times. It is not just about protecting oneself from possible infection of the deadly virus – it is about protecting others from catching anything from you "
 
plexi59 said:
Cases per million are way, way low still, but that's not a real number. They'll increase significantly and quickly as more people get tested because they will now include more infected people rather than just folks with obvious symptoms. And the "real" number will be 10x that. I wonder how people will take it when they discover that the only way through this wringer is to get the virus and acquire immunity. That's not quite obvious from the current messaging if you're in the US, and it IMO should be. If you don't get it now, you'll get it in the fall. When they say "flatten the curve", the area under the curve stays about the same: 50-70% of the US population, same as H1N1 and other epidemics.
Click to expand...
If we all just suddenly got the virus we'd be screwed. Plain and simple. Way more chaos and anarchy than what's kinda coming with the imminent overloading of our healthcare system. Delay, prepare, slow the spread.. Wait till the vaccine comes out or they start lacing our water with quinine or anti-malarial drugs.
 
Donnie B. said:
I use to think this until I started flying a lot. This is a BIG freaking planet!
Click to expand...
Yes it is but there’s a reason why most of the world’s human population lives within 100 miles of the ocean. It’s real easy to fly over and think “Oh yeah there’s plenty of room”. It’s very difficult to live on most of the dry parts and even harder still to do agriculture on the relatively few flat bits. We aren’t packed together just for shits n gigs.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jon
plexi59 said:
I wonder how people will take it when they discover that the only way through this wringer is to get the virus and acquire immunity. That's not quite obvious from the current messaging if you're in the US, and it IMO should be. If you don't get it now, you'll get it in the fall. When they say "flatten the curve", the area under the curve stays about the same: 50-70% of the US population, same as H1N1 and other epidemics.
Click to expand...

50-70% (and that is worse case) is not 100%. If I was in the high risk group I wouldn't be running out to infect myself. You can feasibly make it until a vaccine is produced if your country gets it under control. Also flattening the curve directly impacts survival due to stress on health systems, as Italy found out. The "herd immunity" scenario has been thoroughly debunked as a workable solution. Uncontrolled spread leads to the collapse of health systems.
 
Some crazy photos coming in from my area of the world. These streets are never empty.





s1xveort3bn41.jpg


03w2vskjr9n41.jpg
 
yeky83 said:
Right. But I think your suggested message of “get the virus and acquire immunity” would only work against that goal.
Click to expand...
Depends on who gets it. If we manage to avoid infecting the elderly somehow (and I don't know how), they could be spared. And make no mistake, at least a half of us will get the virus eventually. Those who think otherwise are deluding themselves. This is well past the point where it could be squashed entirely. I'd like this to happen when we know how to deal with its most severe symptoms and have had a chance to stockpile the treatments.

The elderly, BTW, die of respiratory issues pretty disproportionally as it is. Some 160K deaths a year in the US alone, even without all this. Now some of that is exacerbated with the virus as well. Which is to say that a good fraction of the elderly who died "because of the virus", would probably have died without the virus, too. There's just no way to tell for sure.
 
plexi59 said:
Depends on who gets it. If we manage to avoid infecting the elderly somehow (and I don't know how), they could be spared. And make no mistake, at least a half of us will get the virus eventually. Those who think otherwise are deluding themselves. This is well past the point where it could be squashed entirely. I'd like this to happen when we know how to deal with its most severe symptoms and have had a chance to stockpile the treatments.

The elderly, BTW, die of respiratory issues pretty disproportionally as it is. Some 160K deaths a year in the US alone, even without all this. Now some of that is exacerbated with the virus as well. Which is to say that a good fraction of the elderly who died "because of the virus", would probably have died without the virus, too. There's just no way to tell for sure.
Click to expand...

they calculated a few scenarios for Germany. Just isolating the elderly and other wise high risk would still pretty soon result in 8 times more critical cases than ICU beds.
Social distancing right the fuck now is the only scenario that will not collapse the health system.
 
Andrew Male said:
50-70% (and that is worse case) is not 100%. If I was in the high risk group I wouldn't be running out to infect myself. You can feasibly make it until a vaccine is produced if your country gets it under control. Also flattening the curve directly impacts survival due to stress on health systems, as Italy found out. The "herd immunity" scenario has been thoroughly debunked as a workable solution. Uncontrolled spread leads to the collapse of health systems.
Click to expand...
Could you provide some links to peer reviewed "thorough debunking". Best I can tell in the absence of an effective vaccine (which we won't get this year), herd immunity is the only solution. Everyone is talking about flattening the curve, nobody is promising that area under the curve (the total number of infections) will be lower.

The only point of discussion now is how slowly herd immunity should be built up so as not to overwhelm hospital capacity, and what to do to effectively slow the spread.
 
phil92 said:
they calculated a few scenarios for Germany. Just isolating the elderly and other wise high risk would still pretty soon result in 8 times more critical cases than ICU beds.
Social distancing right the fuck now is the only scenario that will not collapse the health system.
Click to expand...
For Germany they said they expect 60-70% rate of infection over the next 2 years though. That's a very sober, realistic way to communicate that would probably cause murderous riots in the US. Their population is much older than in the US though, which significantly increases the projected death toll in the absence of effective treatment. Thus far though they're doing pretty well in the "death toll" department. We'll see if that changes in a couple of weeks.
 
plexi59 said:
The only point of discussion now is how slowly herd immunity should be built up so as not to overwhelm hospital capacity, and what to do to effectively slow the spread.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure that's what he meant. When the UK announced their crazy plan of just letting it run wild to attain herd immunity, I believe that's what Andrew was referring to.
 
plexi59 said:
For Germany they said they expect 60-70% rate of infection over the next 2 years though. That's a very sober, realistic way to communicate that would probably cause murderous riots in the US.
Click to expand...

ahh, don't underestimate your fellow country men; most Americans I'm dealing with are intelligent, warm-hearted, witty and have a good sense of humour. Sure, you'll find the odd nutcase... but we have our fair share of those
 
Here in Honduras, all major cities are in total lock down since 2 days ago. Lucky me half a block from our home we have a mini supermarket that is still opening for a few hours and i have been able to get supplies for at leas a month.

We are following all disinfection procedures for clothes and goods. But things don't look too good for our poor country at all.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom