The economy will crater and the markets are crashing. The next domino to fall is the banking system. A run on the banks is imminent.
No, it isn't.
I agree that the situation is bad. It is bad in the sense that a significant percentage (low double-digits) of elderly-and-cronically-ill persons will die. There will be distressing, even chaotic, scenes in nursing homes.
Additionally, in the coming year, we will lose rather
less than 1% of persons under the age of 60.
If it happens too quickly (e.g. if we reach 50% infection rate in the population before June) then the medical system will be broken, and some folk will wait 3 days in a waiting room for appendicitis treatment and stuff like that, and yes, people will die as a result of
that.
But we will not see as great an impact on banking as the subprime mortgage crisis caused. The market is correcting,
hard, but is likely already undervalued. We are in a panic, which is exactly when folk like Warren Buffett go in and buy up companies on-the-cheap. ("Bulls make money; bears make money...." Ever wonder how it is bears make money? They know to buy low, sell high.)
The only purpose for a run on the banks is if an electrical grid collapse (say) makes card-readers non-functional. But unless this is actually the start of a warfare scenario and Xi, Putin, or someone similar has decided to use nukes w/EMP, the electrical grid and water supply will be every bit as good next March as it is now. (Which is to say: Just fine in most places, and rolling blackouts in California.)
All of this is bad. But there are some levels of bad that this virus does not approach. For those who think differently: Look at other countries whose timelines are already 1-2 months ahead of our own. Countries with less wealth, less education, crappier healthcare, and smaller reserves of gear and know-how. Please don't pretend that things will be worse in the U.S. than they currently are in
Iran. Isn't South Korea (where cases are
already plateauing) likely to be a better predictive model? Or, at worst, Italy? Things are bad in Italy. But not
cannibalism-in-the-gelato-stand bad.
In China, they're
possibly already adapting to the new normal...
https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/china-works-on-ramping-up-business-activity/
(Though, admittedly, I take any news that's partly-sourced from within China with a whole can of Morton's Iodized.)
My point is: This is bad, but let's not get carried away.
I previously joked about calling COVID-19 "Captain Trips." That was a joke.
The Wuhan Flu is bad, but it is not "Captain Trips" bad.
Randall Flagg's act in Vegas, like most other concerts for the next several months, will be cancelled.
