Help the Fight Against COVID-19

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The UK: "We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that,"

Leaders are starting to listen to (and accept) conclusions of the experts...about time.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths

If there's one silver lining here, more people will have more respect for science.
The idiots won't go away...
https://www.newsweek.com/kentucky-man-tested-positive-guarded-police-officer-1492667
https://nypost.com/2020/03/16/woman-licks-plane-toilet-seat-for-coronavirus-challenge/
...but they'll be more outnumbered after this pandemic.
 
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Admin M@ said:
"I'm sorry, and you know I care very much about you and our family, but you need to leave please. Let's not make this a bigger deal than it needs to be."
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I wanted to tape an "Under Quaratine" sign on our front door but my wife overruled.
(leave out the word 'self' and let people think we may be catchy - which we may be! - just to remind dumb people)
I'm betting it'll be up by next Monday.
 
MoJiggity said:
Serious question: if this virus becomes a normal part of our existence (and there's every indication that it will based upon expert opinions I've read) then are you going to keep this up for the rest of your lifetimes? I thought that measures being undertaken to reduce infection were meant to "flatten the curve" and stop our healthcare systems from collapsing... i.e. the area under the curve will be the same order of magnitude but the derivative will approach zero.
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The mania has just only begun to gather steam/momentum. Those confirmed cases numbers are going to skyrocket now that restrictions have been lifted from testing. After a few tragic accidents/reports of violence have swept the nation in the next coming weeks people will adjust and a new normal will be in place with established protocols for gathering groceries, medical appointments etc, and general travel. After another few months the peak of this pandemic will have been reached and once it is established reinfection rate is at an acceptable/low risk level; normalcy pre-3/16/2020 will begin to slowly return. Restaurants, malls, movie theaters, amusement parks, domestic airline travel etc. will all come back online.
 
sheky said:
In theory if they could stay away from older people at risk, it's not so bad. It's not that dangerous for them and an entire demographic could build immunity quickly.
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In theory. However, looking at a still of the video, which won’t play for me, there are quite a few elderly people on that beach.
 
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sheky said:
In theory if they could stay away from older people at risk, it's not so bad. It's not that dangerous for them and an entire demographic could build immunity quickly.
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They'd also have to stay away from older people for at least 3 weeks, too, which is not going to happen in this case.
 
MoJiggity said:
Serious question: if this virus becomes a normal part of our existence (and there's every indication that it will based upon expert opinions I've read) then are you going to keep this up for the rest of your lifetimes? I thought that measures being undertaken to reduce infection were meant to "flatten the curve" and stop our healthcare systems from collapsing... i.e. the area under the curve will be the same order of magnitude but the derivative will approach zero.
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A simulation of strategies and potential outcomes in US and UK. A periodic triggering of social distancing might work to keep the ICU beds from being overtaken.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf


Plus you might not have seen this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
 
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For comparison, for those who think "we're all gonna die" here's an early report on H1N1: https://www.who.int/immunization/sage/1.Briand_epi_7th_July_2009_(rev_6July_09).pdf. It has all the familiar traits, exponential growth, insane case fatality ratio estimates (on the order of 1%), insane R0 estimates, too. What's different is the age distribution. Older people naturally die more easily.

Later that year: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8406723.stm "The swine flu pandemic is "considerably less lethal" than feared, chief medical officer Sir Liam Donaldson says."

Moreover, 5 years later (in 2014) we still didn't have good fatality rate estimates: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/. As the paper diplomatically says "there is very substantial heterogeneity in published estimates", which is a long winded way of saying "we don't have a foggiest clue".
 
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Cough and dyspnea but no fever, I may not be tested...
Dyspnea is mild but present. I just have to wait for 5 to 8 days to see if it gets worse and have to go to the hospital....
No way to know if I’m Covid infected. That’s scary because there were infected people in my office so the risk is real.

I don’t want to be just a statistic next week :-(

I’ve started hydroxychloroquine and I keep hope...
 
MoJiggity said:
Serious question: if this virus becomes a normal part of our existence (and there's every indication that it will based upon expert opinions I've read) then are you going to keep this up for the rest of your lifetimes? I thought that measures being undertaken to reduce infection were meant to "flatten the curve" and stop our healthcare systems from collapsing... i.e. the area under the curve will be the same order of magnitude but the derivative will approach zero.
Click to expand...

It seems the plan is to "flatten the curve" of infections so we don't overload the hospitals in the short to medium term. If all goes well, we'll have vaccine(s) tested and ready to go in six months to a year. Once we have a vaccine for Covid-19, things should return more to normal, although, there will likely be downstream medical and economic effects for years.
 
And according to the top German institute on the subject, Wuhan was underreporting the real cases by up to 11x (meaning case fatality ratio is drastically overstated): https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Steckbrief.html#doc13776792bodyText7

Quote (translated): "A study that was still based on data from January 2020 estimates the proportion of infected people recorded in China's surveillance system at 5% (19), a second study estimates the share at 9.2% (25). Thus, the number of infected would be a factor of 20 or 11 larger than specified."

Likewise, I bet there are a ton more people sick in Italy than you see in the reports, and the fatality ratio is much lower than what you see.
 
OldSnail said:
Cough and dyspnea but no fever, I may not be tested...
Dyspnea is mild but present. I just have to wait for 5 to 8 days to see if it gets worse and have to go to the hospital....
No way to know if I’m Covid infected. That’s scary because there were infected people in my office so the risk is real.

I don’t want to be just a statistic next week :-(

I’ve started hydroxychloroquine and I keep hope...
Click to expand...
Take zinc with it. The reason chloroquine works is that is allows zinc to enter your cells. Zinc interferes with the virus hijacking the protein manufacturing process.
 
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