Help the Fight Against COVID-19

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Wolfenstein98k said:
probably imminent vaccine
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Not gonna happen for another year. Our best hope for now remains exactly as it was 2 weeks ago: hydroxychloroquine and/or remdesivir for severely ill patients whose lungs aren't destroyed yet. Vaccines must be tested before they are deployed, because if you fuck up a vaccine, the immune system could easily kill or permanently fuck up the patient. This has actually happened in the past and this happens (albeit very rarely) with legit vaccines already on the market. That's why the flu vaccine consent shit asks you about specific conditions that may trigger a severe adverse reaction.

So for a vaccine we're realistically looking at a year or so. Nobody is going to inject tens of millions of people with something that could kill even a small percentage of them. Drugs, even those with significant side effects (hydroxychloroquine and remdesivir I mentioned a couple of weeks back) can be given to severely ill patients when there's no other choice on the table. The Chinese used hydroxychloroquine, Australia seems to be testing it as well. In the US, as usual, the situation is clear as mud and the press is full of uninformative clickbait. The CDC website, on which it'd be reasonable to expect some stats as to the number of cases and fatalities, shows no such thing.
 
I'm pretty sure, that the death rate in Germany will rise exponentially soon. Warm weather with higher humidty is coming and the virus makes it's way into the nursing homes for the elderly and the diseased.
There are still way too many dumb people that enjoy their lives as usual without any noticable learning curve.
 
plexi59 said:
Death rate is much lower in the US than in Italy as well at the same point in the exponential curve. The percentage of severe cases is way lower, too. In fact, by these two metrics Italy appears to be an insane outlier compared even to China. Germany seems to also be an outlier but in the other direction: very few deaths, and very few serious cases.
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That's probably due to the fact that the outbreak started later there, death rate lags behind infection rate.
Anyway in the US the death rate is currently almost 2%, still 10 times higher than Germany.

This morning I found the news that a study has been made in Vo' Euganeo (another small town in the first red zone) where the entire population was tested, they found out that 50% to 75% of infected people have no or light symptoms.
That could mean that real number of infections in Italy could be 2 to 4 times higher and death rate around 1.5-3%.
Still nowhere near German data.

Lots of newspapers and websites spread this news but none of them shared the link to the research apparently.
If I find it I'll post it
 
thepacifist20130 said:
I would expect the mortality numbers to change if the same infections were spread over a longer period of time.

I would also think that number of people infected will come down but that’s just from reading opinions on the internet.
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Also, I would hope that if someone can get a vaccine out (where maybe that wasn't such a "quick" option with the Spanish Flu), the predicted infected and mortality rates would drop.
 
The WHO should mandate guidelines for classifying Covid-19 stats. If everyone's using different rules
to count heads the data is counter-productive.

A person is 87 years old, in a nursing home with heart disease, respiratory problems, diabetes,
and has been bed-ridden for a number of years.
If that person catches CV19 and dies, are they officially listed as a disease fatality??????
Such a tough call really.
 
Donnie B. said:
The WHO should mandate guidelines for classifying Covid-19 stats. If everyone's using different rules
to count heads the data is counter-productive.

A person is 87 years old, in a nursing home with heart disease, respiratory problems, diabetes,
and has been bed-ridden for a number of years.
If that person catches CV19 and dies, are they officially listed as a disease fatality??????
Such a tough call really.
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There are so many people on meds for a range of problems that continue life. If it wasn’t for Covid-19, would they have survived ? If yes, then they should be counted in the fatality rate. Else we risk being overly optimistic about this disease.
 
toneseeker911 said:
There are so many people on meds for a range of problems that continue life. If it wasn’t for Covid-19, would they have survived ? If yes, then they should be counted in the fatality rate. Else we risk being overly optimistic about this disease.
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If an 87 year old with a lot of pre-existing conditions dies from the regular flu I don't think the cause of death is listed as flu,
but I don't know for sure. My older sister is a head nurse in an elderly home. I'll ask her how it's determined.

EDIT: My sister said that normally they wouldn't bother swabbing for the flu with the person in my example.
Problem is, now they're swabbing everyone who passes in some countries while in others they aren't.
 
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Wolfenstein98k said:
I would be worrying more about the economic (and small business particularly) impacts more than the infection and death rate at this point.
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I found this instructive graphic that visualizes the economic forecast.

forecast copy.png
I gig for a living. All my income just went away. I need little a little humor therapy.

.
 
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The impact of the flu in a usual winter is meassured by comparing the actual mortality with the average background mortality. That's way less accurate than counting the cases one by one.

I like it how the NFL counts QB sacks. A defender can earn a half sack when there were two defenders to bring the QB down.
Counting mortality the same way you could get non integer values, besides that it would be more on spot.
 
LA just now.

nieT3Fv.jpg
 
plexi59 said:
Not gonna happen for another year. Our best hope for now remains exactly as it was 2 weeks ago: hydroxychloroquine and/or remdesivir for severely ill patients whose lungs aren't destroyed yet. Vaccines must be tested before they are deployed, because if you fuck up a vaccine, the immune system could easily kill or permanently fuck up the patient. This has actually happened in the past and this happens (albeit very rarely) with legit vaccines already on the market. That's why the flu vaccine consent shit asks you about specific conditions that may trigger a severe adverse reaction.

So for a vaccine we're realistically looking at a year or so. Nobody is going to inject tens of millions of people with something that could kill even a small percentage of them. Drugs, even those with significant side effects (hydroxychloroquine and remdesivir I mentioned a couple of weeks back) can be given to severely ill patients when there's no other choice on the table. The Chinese used hydroxychloroquine, Australia seems to be testing it as well. In the US, as usual, the situation is clear as mud and the press is full of uninformative clickbait. The CDC website, on which it'd be reasonable to expect some stats as to the number of cases and fatalities, shows no such thing.
Click to expand...
This is exactly right. What we need is an anti-viral. I didn't know hydroxychloroquine was a serious candidate.
 
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