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Help the Fight Against COVID-19

hippietim

Fractal Fanatic
Tim, those tests are checking the viability of the virus when dispersed via an aerosol propellant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerosol_spray

A sneeze or cough is in no way the same thing. I mean they are for a very short period of time
until gravity takes over and the mucus spray drops to a surface(s).
I understand the distinction. In a normal environment with human propellants, it's certainly less than 3 hours. We've all seen the mist of a sneeze or cough linger - is it seconds, minutes, or hours - I don't know? The point is simply that it is not zero so be careful.
 

plexi59

Power User
WA and CA seem to be holding steady tho. If anything in WA the new case rate seems to be going down. Which is not surprising - most people here barely go outside at all, and all the public places are closed. Testing labs are operating below capacity here, too. Unfortunately, no effort is being made by the school district to get any online teaching going before the end of April when schools are scheduled to reopen, not even assigning chapters to read or homework. Which, IMO, is a disgrace at $11K per student per year, and makes a good case for furloughing the administrative staff while schools are not operating (teachers themselves, I'm sure, would want nothing more than to teach).
 

BaronVonGrim

Experienced
Hundreds of thousands is a lot less than tens of millions. All evidence points to fatalities of tens, if not hundreds, of millions. People are massively underestimating the lethality of this disease. It's a SARS coronavirus. Those types of viruses are nothing to sneeze at, pardon the pun. They attack your lungs and kill you with astounding efficiency.
The Princes Diamond... I would baseline your calculations from the statistics available from the PD.. it's the most stable model available...
 

DLC86

Fractal Fanatic
This has been reported in the Italian press in the past couple of days, but it turns out to not be true. Yes, the numbers this week look encouraging compared to the numbers from last week, but no, the number of new infections has not gone down 4 days in a row. From worldometers.info:
You're right, this is the correct graph for new cases, still looks encouraging compared to the previous growth.. we'll see if this trend will be at least maintained in the next days.

IMG_20200326_024550.jpg
 

GlennO

Inspired
Be aware of selection bias. The press will only show you the worst. Tragedy sells subscriptions.
A New York newspaper reporting on the situation in New York is not selection bias. It is responsible journalism about the region of interest to their readers. Showing a quiet hospital somewhere in the country where the situation isn't very hot might feed some people's belief this is all a hoax, but that would be irresponsible.
 

solo-act

Fractal Fanatic
It's about time. We need to be live streaming video from ERs onto concert screen jumbo-trons anywhere people are trying to mass like sea lions onto an ice patch. We need YouTube to cram the first half page of ANY search query with videos like that and the one below. Same with the rest of social media - they've totally dropped the ball.

Unlike the USA, where a desperate doctor has to become a rebel to get footage, Bergamo Italy asked the media to come in, to see the fight for life on the front lines and broadcast it to the world - to tell the world ASAP get your shit together or this will happen to you.
It's already happening in New York. It's very scary and the "hoax" and "fear" as some call it is just getting started. It's called reality.
 

BaronVonGrim

Experienced
Some interesting comments I recently heard on NPR from a guest host... about viruses in history.
During the Spanish Flu... older people were at less risk and it was the younger who had the greatest mortality rate. Because at some point, the elderly had been exposed to the virus earlier in life... some form of it.

They are trying to learn why some people get sick and others do not. If there is a earlier lineage.
 

plexi59

Power User
A New York newspaper reporting on the situation in New York is not selection bias. It is responsible journalism about the region of interest to their readers. Showing a quiet hospital somewhere in the country where the situation isn't very hot might feed some people's belief this is all a hoax, but that would be irresponsible.
New York newspaper finding the worst affected hospital in New York and making you believe that's how it is across the board is selection bias, however. That's not to say the situation is easy there. That is to say that if they had a choice between showing a hospital which is doing OK and one that's completely fucked, you know exactly what would get printed. That's selection bias. If they were concerned with presenting the truth, they'd show another hospital where, perhaps, things aren't so bad. But they don't really give a shit. Panic sells subscriptions.
 

bjjp2

Experienced
Be aware of selection bias. The press will only show you the worst. Tragedy sells subscriptions.
I spoke to one of the leading immunologists in the country today. He works in a hospital in NYC. He was retained by my company to give us as accurate a picture as possible of where things were and where things were going. His outlook was bleak. He described the situation as “dire,” cases were “exploding“, hospitals overloaded, “getting worse by the minute,” etc etc etc. Going to get much worse. It was absolutely grim. I asked him if there was any good news. He said “nothing at all.” But you know better I guess. Edit: he also said “it’s even worse than we expected.”
 
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hippietim

Fractal Fanatic
New York newspaper finding the worst affected hospital in New York and making you believe that's how it is across the board is selection bias, however. That's not to say the situation is easy there. That is to say that if they had a choice between showing a hospital which is doing OK and one that's completely fucked, you know exactly what would get printed. That's selection bias. If they were concerned with presenting the truth, they'd show another hospital where, perhaps, things aren't so bad. But they don't really give a shit. Panic sells subscriptions.
That is one way to characterize this. Another is that they're showing you how a well staffed hospital that's used to seeing plenty of patients is on the verge of being overwhelmed. In fact, if they were not able to move certain patients to other facilities they would already be overwhelmed.

Don't kid yourself, it's not like this is the only hospital in NY or anywhere else that's in a bad way. There's plenty more in New York and around the nation. And given that we have mental midgets running states like Mississippi, there's still plenty more of this to come.

Besides, what good would it do to show that a hospital in an area with limited cases is not overwhelmed? Isn't that sort of freakin' obvious?
 
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