Help the Fight Against COVID-19

[yyz67]

At this point the economy is screwed. There are two options:
1. Do what is required to contain the virus. Shut everything down, stop all travel, etc. This will trash the economy.
2. Do what we've been doing (which isn't nearly enough) and millions will die and the economy will be trashed.

1. Will "trash the economy" temporarily. I don't think it's unrecoverable. The stock market was overvalued to begin with. Stocks are not the entire economy, they are one particularly volatile aspect. It doesn't change capital and many other things. Supply chains will be affected, but hopefully not health and necessities.

However, if there is a lock down, many lower income folks will be screwed without work or income. I don't know how those on a barely living wage will cope. Probably families and friends helping them out or taking them in.

2. I don't think this is going to happen. States and localities and institutions (NBA, NCAA, Disneyland) are already responding, as are individuals. A bunch of my friends were going to have a gathering/retreat in Oregon this weekend but I mentioned coronovirus last week and it took awhile but today everyone agreed to cancel and reschedule.

Since 9/11 this is the first major scare we've had in a while. I don't think it is so dire. Westerners and Americans in particular have been shielded from disruptions like these and our psychology and culture is a bit fragile due to long-standing protection and privilege. Many in the world live with major inconveniences and upheavals way beyond what will happen here. The world is more going to get more chaotic and we need to learn to be caring, resourceful, and resilient. (This is not to minimize in any way the deaths this will cause.)

 

[Toopy14]

I always take the stairs so when I left I'm going down the stairs and a woman is coming up the stairs. She sees me in my "gas mask", turns around and runs down the stairs. I could only laugh.

I would have said...’wait, I am your father!’

 

[phillyred79]

Depending on the year ~500k people die from the flu and flu-related illness worldwide every year. MOST people had no idea of this stat prior to this current pandemic. If you told people last September this was going to happen going into our normal flu season you'd have the same irrational response we are seeing now. Point is, this is life and has been the way of life for a long time.. People die.. A little extra hand washing, being polite while sneezing/coughing into your arm or staying home when feeling ill is the really the best approach to avoid economic collapse and societal anxiety.

 

[chris]

If you told people last September this was going to happen going into our normal flu season you'd have the same irrational response we are seeing now.

i disagree. we understand the flu and have ways to fight it. we understand it so much that it's not a threat to daily life.

the COVID-19 disease has no remedy. it's currently spreading for the first time at unknown levels. there is no containment.

that's the difference. flu is known. SARS-CoV-2 isn't.

 

[Morphine]

Disneyland closing through the end of the month

https://disneyland.disney.go.com/travel-information/

 

[yyz67]

being polite while sneezing/coughing into your arm or staying home when feeling ill

Aye, there's the rub, polite consideration. I'd wager only 1/2-1/3 of people sneeze or cough into their arm.

And many wage-earners, e.g. single working moms, will (have to) still go to work unless too sick to do so.

 

[lauke-lux]

Wow. So the 25 million people who will die is okay?

WHO ever talked about 25 million ? It's not easy but maybe cool down a bit....

 

[yek]

I will probably lose a few friends and family members who are elderly and immunocompromised due to organ transplants, but society must continue to flourish and the weak will just be shed at a faster rate.

I wonder if these people also call you a friend. Man ... Money is not more important than lives.

 

[FractalAudio]

WHO ever talked about 25 million ? It's not easy but maybe cool down a bit....

There are 350 million people in the US. If we "all get together and hug and kiss" then 6-7% of the population will die. That's about 25 million.

 

[yeky83]

I always take the stairs so when I left I'm going down the stairs and a woman is coming up the stairs. She sees me in my "gas mask", turns around and runs down the stairs. I could only laugh.

I heard Bane in my head.

 

[lauke-lux]

There are 350 million people in the US. If we "all get together and hug and kiss" then 6-7% of the population will die. That's about 25 million.

It's not so linear like that...happily btw. 1st of all simply 80% of the people just won't contract the virus by simple resilience. Of course still all should take care not to spread unnecessarily this contagion by lack of consciousness. 4% of 20% also means lot of pain. Take care

 

[Donnie B.]

Speaking of populations, the craziest aspect is that even if Covid-19 was 99% fatal, you'd still be left with
well over 3 million people in the US alone to try and start over.

 

[Mark-B]

Speaking of populations, the craziest aspect is that even if Covid-19 was 99% fatal, you'd still be left with
3.25 million people in the US to try and start over.

..and it would take them a whopping twenty-five minutes after they all got togther to vote for the biggest asshole to lead them.

Well! ...could be worse ...We could be vvv...these guys!



...and that would be pretty-bad! :0)

 

[deathbyguitar]

I heard Bane in my head.

And now I'm picturing Bane holding a bunch of people hostage while waxing philosophical about Bias Excursion or something.

 

[phil92]

...1st of all simply 80% of the people just won't contract the virus by simple resilience...

yeah, that's not how a virus works. It doesn't see your "resilience" says "ah, what the hell" and jumps over to the next person

 

[yeky83]

It's not so linear like that...happily btw. 1st of all simply 80% of the people just won't contract the virus by simple resilience. Of course still all should take care not to spread unnecessarily this contagion by lack of consciousness. 4% of 20% also means lot of pain. Take care

Herd immunity depends on the r0, right? A conservative r0 estimate of 2 means 50% of population will get it before herd immunity protects us. 20% is way too low.

 

[hippietim]

Current state of politics has me deeply cynical and jaded. I see everything through a "how did the people in the (house|senate|executive) vote on this and how did it benefit them personally?" lens now and I frigging hate that that is how I have to assess every decision politicians make.

The only saving grace is that they are so massively ineffective that they don't actually pass as much legislation as they could. The problem the becomes that their stalemate emboldens the other branches and thus degrades the so-called system of checks and balances - this has been getting worse and worse for decades.

 

[hippietim]

Looks like my prediction of the markets losing 20-30% might've been too conservative. We're already almost at 30%.

At this point the economy is screwed. There are two options:
1. Do what is required to contain the virus. Shut everything down, stop all travel, etc. This will trash the economy.
2. Do what we've been doing (which isn't nearly enough) and millions will die and the economy will be trashed.

So the economy will be trashed either way so you might as well choose option 1.

And if decisive action would have been taken initially, the economy would have suffered for sure but it would have shortened the duration - far less damage would have been done.

 

[electronpirate]

Dammit. The only time I watch college basketball is March Madness. Now that's gone.

Not that it would be the same. I watched a soccer game with an empty stadium today and it was...odd.

 

[hippietim]

1. Will "trash the economy" temporarily. I don't think it's unrecoverable. The stock market was overvalued to begin with. Stocks are not the entire economy, they are one particularly volatile aspect. It doesn't change capital and many other things. Supply chains will be affected, but hopefully not health and necessities.

However, if there is a lock down, many lower income folks will be screwed without work or income. I don't know how those on a barely living wage will cope. Probably families and friends helping them out or taking them in.

2. I don't think this is going to happen. States and localities and institutions (NBA, NCAA, Disneyland) are already responding, as are individuals. A bunch of my friends were going to have a gathering/retreat in Oregon this weekend but I mentioned coronovirus last week and it took awhile but today everyone agreed to cancel and reschedule.

Since 9/11 this is the first major scare we've had in a while. I don't think it is so dire. Westerners and Americans in particular have been shielded from disruptions like these and our psychology and culture is a bit fragile due to long-standing protection and privilege. Many in the world live with major inconveniences and upheavals way beyond what will happen here. The world is more going to get more chaotic and we need to learn to be caring, resourceful, and resilient. (This is not to minimize in any way the deaths this will cause.)

You're right, the stock market is not the entire economy. However, that is where all of the attention will be and that is where all the reparation funds will go. There's already talk of a stimulus package to help the f**king oil companies out due to lost revenue. The damage that will be done to many local businesses is going to be unrecoverable. That will translate into more corporate replacements in time. Bye bye local Irish pub, welcome some tacky chain like the Tilted Kilt.