Timeline for when tube guitar amps become obselete

Q

qingcong

Inspired
I think that with products like the Axe-Fx, POD HD500, 11R providing tremendous promise for excellent tone, there will be a time where we're not chasing "tube tone". Rather, we'll be discussing there merits of one digital system over another in terms of computing power. We won't be modeling amp sounds anymore, instead the digital systems are creating new sounds. In otherwords, "Marshall crunch" or "Fender clean" won't mean anything anymore, because the new generation will have no idea what a tube Marshall sounds like to begin with.

As sad as it makes me, I do think there will be a time when tube guitar amps will become obselete, perhaps even extinct. We're seeing essentially the same fate with tube home theater systems. Only the few crazy audiophiles/crazy rich people in the world are going to buy a $3000 McIntosh tube sound system. Why would we buy a 60 pound Mesa head with a huge 60 pound 4x12 when we could have a 10 pound Axe-Fx with a 30-40 pound compact FRFR solution? I know why, the stack looks cool. But looks is subjective, not of substance. The reality is that digital solutions are compact, portable, and much more flexible. In the end, logic wins.

So it's not a question of whether or not tube amps will die, it's a question of when. I'm 28 and will never lose my affinity for my Marshall JCM and my 4x12. What about the 12 year old who's just now picking up guitar and has a POD xt? This kid will perhaps never know what it's like to play through a Marshall stack. Maybe this kid grows up to be the next generation's Slash and talks up his/her digital rig in guitar world. Soon everyone wants this rig. I think in 20 years digital rigs will dominate, in 50 years tube guitar amps are seriously endangered, and in 100 years, no more tubes anywhere. I think this generation's kids are going to be the last generation that has any attachment to tube amps. So for at least the next 40 years when these people are alive, there will be a demand for tube amps.

What a long post. I'm just waiting for this wood glue to dry. What do you guys think about the future of tube amps?
 
I don't think tube amps are on the way out.
The number of different tube amps on the market seems to be at all times high.
Will they disappear at some point? Eventually yes.... but not any time soon.

I am more worried about the popularity of guitar driven music.
It seems like in the 70's every song had a guitar solo... even disco.
In today's popular music, that the new generation is listening to, guitar solo's are hard to find.
Eventually guitars will disappear too.... now that's a scary thought.

:roll
 
I don't think tube amps are going away any time soon. Surely not in my lifetime, but man Digital Audio Workstations sure put a end to analog/ tape machines.
If I still had my old home... I'd still have my Krank and 6505+!
 
AndrewSimon said:
I don't think tube amps are on the way out.
The number of different tube amps on the market seems to be at all times high.
Will they disappear at some point? Eventually yes.... but not any time soon.

I am more worried about the popularity of guitar driven music.
It seems like in the 70's every song had a guitar solo... even disco.
In today's popular music, that the new generation is listening to, guitar solo's are hard to find.
Eventually guitars will disappear too.... now that's a scary thought.

:roll
Click to expand...

I agree, the direction music is headed does not seem to focus on the guitar like it used to. As far as tube amps, the're not going anywhere for some time. It's modelers that come and go, while tube amps have remained a staple. How many people do you see yearning for a vintage POD or vintage Line Sux amp vs. people, even young people, stating they'd give their left nut for a vintage Plexi? There is a love affair between guitarists and tube amps, that has stood, and will stand the test of time. After all, any time you try and replicate something that is highly sought after, it will never be "the same", even though in many ways it may be better, than the original. An AC Cobra replica, which are everywhere, will never have the same affect on people as a true AC Cobra, due to it's heritage (maybe a sillly example). I think the Axe Fx, and any high end modelers that may come, are great tools, but it is our love for the vintage tube amps that will keep both tube amps and modelers going strong.
 
Last edited:
Okay, take for example the Line 6 POD X3 and the Axe-fx, the two digital modeling system's I've owned and had experience with. For the POD X3, there are 27 custom L6 amp models - in other words, they are not meant to be a duplicate of a certain kind of amp, they were tweaked by Line 6 to be an amp of certain characteristic. The Axe-Fx has 10 amp models called "FAS ...". It's not too far fetched to think that in the future, a digital system will have NO simulations of amps, instead you will just program your own amp parameters based on desired gain, EQ, etc.
 
These things tend to go in cycles.

Technology throws something new into the mix and then in a few years interest in more traditional forms undergoes a resurgence. It's all good.

BTW, the size of the guitar market in the US is something over 17M units per year, and rising.
 
Tube amps will never go away. For me, there are two aspects of tube amps that digital venues can't touch. The first is mod/maintenance stuff. I have all kinds of 30, 40, 50 year old tube amps that work great-- and whenever any issues come up, I can troubleshoot and repair them myself. Mods too, if an amp is doing something a little differently than I wish it was, I can change a resistor or cap or few and the amp will behave differently. I realize digital boxes like the Axe-Fx are going in that direction, but there's nothing out now or on the horizon that can compete right now. I can add preamp tube sections, convert trem tubes into signal dirt makers, etc, which isn't really within the scope of any digital boxes out there.

And second, the aesthetic. The glow of tubes, the heat (inefficient, wasted power, I know), the smell of 40 year old wood being cooked by the output tubes... I just love it. And I know I'm not alone there. I'm at an age where my first memories of teevee sets were that they took a while to warm up, which I didn't know was a tube thing. Kids today didn't have that, but I would bet anything that 5 and 10 and 30 years from now there will still be kids discovering the magical sensory experience of a tube amp. Sonically maybe digital boxes are catching up or are caught up already with the Axe-Fx, but the warm glow and smell of a tube amp has an untouchable charm.

My prediction would be in the next 5 or 10 years, with powerful new boxes like Cliff's designed, and the other boxes that will leverage the power of modern computing, there will be a boom in digital boxes replacing vintage tube amps like what happened in the second half of the 80's. But as mentioned already, that will be met with the return of the tube amp to underdog status, and inevitably eventually the flow will go back in that direction. The thing that makes the modern time stand out to me is that I feel we're on the eve of the second wave of rack system popularity, which hasn't really happened since what, over 20 years ago. Lemme just say that I'm totally psyched about the possibilities of what the Axe-Fx offers, and I can't wait to see how far I can push the boundaries of awesome. But at the same time, I'm not letting the 50's-70's Ampegs, Fenders, Marshalls, Traynors go anytime soon. Granted I'm selling a couple Ampegs to pay for the Axe-Fx I already bought, but no way are they all going.
 
Not in my lifetime. They sound great, and people are still using amps that were made way before I was born. Put simply, if you're satisfied with the sound of your amp, there's no reason to move to anything else, digital or analog. Not everyone is a gearhead. Some people just play music, and make use of what they have.
 
I am a professional photographer and I would never have dreamed that they'd stop making KODACHROME, but they did, last year. The op is correct. This will happen within the next 10 years IMHO. Sorry.
 
I don't think the tube amp market is cyclical in nature. Cyclical represents a balance, where if one gives the other takes and vice versa, it's self regulating. There's nothing self regulating about the trajectory of technology. VHS is dead, tape decks are obselete having been replaced by CDs, tube computers are dead. At some point when digital systems make up more than 50% of rigs out there, there will be a point where the younger generation will have no sentimental attachment to the glow and smell of tube amps. At that point, it will be uneconomical for Marshall and Mesa to continue making tube amps. They will either die or change their product profile to keep from going bankrupt. Tube amps may still exist in somebody's garage or with a small independent company like Cary Audio, but at that point it's an endangered technology.
 
I own both AxeFx and HD500 and use them a lot - but they will never replace my tube amps - more me they are still like night and day.
Next thing may be the Kemper - lets see next month at Music Messe.
 
Caribefatboy said:
I am a professional photographer and I would never have dreamed that they'd stop making KODACHROME, but they did, last year. The op is correct. This will happen within the next 10 years IMHO. Sorry.
Click to expand...

Sorry, but I don't think a KODACHROME camera even remotely compares to a vintage tube amp (IMHO).
 
qingcong said:
I don't think the tube amp market is cyclical in nature. Cyclical represents a balance, where if one gives the other takes and vice versa, it's self regulating. There's nothing self regulating about the trajectory of technology. VHS is dead, tape decks are obselete having been replaced by CDs, tube computers are dead. At some point when digital systems make up more than 50% of rigs out there, there will be a point where the younger generation will have no sentimental attachment to the glow and smell of tube amps. At that point, it will be uneconomical for Marshall and Mesa to continue making tube amps. They will either die or change their product profile to keep from going bankrupt. Tube amps may still exist in somebody's garage or with a small independent company like Cary Audio, but at that point it's an endangered technology.
Click to expand...

That's about the equivalent of saying that the invention of the transistor would drive tube amp manufacturers out of business. How long have transistors been around now "Following its release in the early 1950s the transistor revolutionized the field of electronics", and what is the status of tube amp manufacturers today?
 
Of course tube amps will disappear! Sure there is more tube amps NOW than ever before, but the Axe-FX is the first product to have nailed it in regards to tone and feel (even if some people choose to claim otherwise), and in 20 years, lots of products like the Axe-FX will be around (digital versions of analog amps that do exactly what the analog stuff did), and tube amps will be alot less common. It's just evolution. Sure there will always be some guys who will hail yesterday and stick to their tube amps. After all, the Amish are still around ;)
 
I think tube amps have been obsolete for decades; but that doesn't impact on their usefulness, tone, or hold over the guitarist community worldwide.

Obsolete or not, they are very much part of the landscape and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future IMHO. Cars made horses obsolete as working tools; doesn't make them any less useful. Just adds a different perspective on it.
 
AndrewSimon said:
I don't think tube amps are on the way out.
The number of different tube amps on the market seems to be at all times high.
Will they disappear at some point? Eventually yes.... but not any time soon.

I am more worried about the popularity of guitar driven music.
It seems like in the 70's every song had a guitar solo... even disco.
In today's popular music, that the new generation is listening to, guitar solo's are hard to find.
Eventually guitars will disappear too.... now that's a scary thought.

:roll
Click to expand...

What you said! Tube amps are not going anywhere and in order to hear a guitar solo you've got to listen to Country music. I don't mean that in a derogatory way its just true.
 
Most digital amp gear tries to replicates what tubes amps accomplish..sometimes people harp on about decades old technology

"it ain't broke don't fix it"

There will always be a love for tubes.
 
AndrewSimon said:
I am more worried about the popularity of guitar driven music.
Click to expand...

I'm not.

They were completely gone during the Big Techno Scare, in europe at least, but they also came back in a big way.
NuMetal in all it's forms, PopPunk, and even that Disney band Paramore has guitars of some sort. They may sound like someone vacuuming the room next door but still - guitars.

I'm worried about the absence of any real songwriting in modern productions. They are very, very well produced crap, nothing more.
And absence of dynamics like that Chris Lord Alge sound, especially on drums (uh...)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom