Poll: Do you plan to wait in the waiting list or pay the premium?

[Guitar-Tiz]

I agree. This is nothing like the MFC which was a from the groud up, chassis, firmware, layout, manufacturing process, etc.

Axe II is next gen of Ultra and FAS are pro's in buliding them. No unknowns here just daily manufac.
MFC hit many roadblocks, unknowns, etc.

If only things where that simple. I can bet you, at the least, the company Cliff used for the chassis had to do a full retool to build the chassis, the faceplate? It's got a whole new layout, and who knows what kind of snags could have happened. Maybe one of the companies Cliff was using had an issue, maybe a metal supplier didn't deliver, maybe one of his suppliers had financial issues, there are any number of things that could have kept the Axe-II's from being ready.

 

[OreIda]

If only things where that simple. I can bet you, at the least, the company Cliff used for the chassis had to do a full retool to build the chassis, the faceplate? It's got a whole new layout, and who knows what kind of snags could have happened. Maybe one of the companies Cliff was using had an issue, maybe a metal supplier didn't deliver, maybe one of his suppliers had financial issues, there are any number of things that could have kept the Axe-II's from being ready.

True, but its still similar to the Axe I. And they could be issues like you said. But it is still nothing like the MFC.

 

[Xrocker]

It's a metal box filled with electronics. It depends on many vendors supplying parts. Then it needs to be assembled, loaded with firmware and tested. Then it needs to be sold, packed and shipped by the same guys that did the same process with the MFC. Other than that it is nothing like the MFC.

 

[Guitar-Tiz]

True, but its still similar to the Axe I. And they could be issues like you said. But it is still nothing like the MFC.

Similar, but different enough.

Also, there is the fact that Cliff could have highly under-estimated the demand. Demand is a very hard beast to predict, sometimes.

 

[OreIda]

Similar, but different enough.

Also, there is the fact that Cliff could have highly under-estimated the demand. Demand is a very hard beast to predict, sometimes.

Main difference is the MFC was ground up design, ergonomics, etc. He also told us about it before while he was designing it so the demand was there WAY before he even made a prototype.
Thats my point why this situation is different.

 

[andyG]

Similar, but different enough.

Also, there is the fact that Cliff could have highly under-estimated the demand. Demand is a very hard beast to predict, sometimes.

He might be too optimistic about the production, but I don't think he has no idea about the demand.
And people, be realistic, get your macro or script ready.

 

[Guitar-Tiz]

Main difference is the MFC was ground up design, ergonomics, etc. He also told us about it before while he was designing it so the demand was there WAY before he even made a prototype.
Thats my point why this situation is different.

I am not talking about the MFC, I am talking about the Axe-I, vs Axe-II.

 

[Guitar-Tiz]

He might be too optimistic about the production, but I don't think he has no idea about the demand.
And people, be realistic, get your macro or script ready.

You misread my statement. I said "Under-estimated," I didn't say "he had no clue."

It happens. It's a real world, and Murphy's Law rules it.

 

[MattACaster]

MattACaster,
Just buy an Ultra and you will be fine!

Regards

Thats kind of what I'm thinking. Grab an Ultra to hold me over for a year or so until demand drops. Then upgrade!!!

Now I just need to find one...

 

[andyG]

You misread my statement. I said "Under-estimated," I didn't say "he had no clue."

It happens. It's a real world, and Murphy's Law rules it.

Stand corrected. I don't think he under-estimated the demand. He just can't/won't produce enough in a short time.
"There will be plenty." Wishful thinking, I guess?

 

[jdolll]

One of his cats hit the post button before he was finished typing the sentence?

"there will be plenty of units.". ......... In the next year.

 

[levipeto]

You guys just wait! I will sell you my Axe-FX II when Axe-Fx III comes out It's about the same time, when it's your turn on the waiting list

j/k

 

[Guitar-Tiz]

Stand corrected. I don't think he under-estimated the demand. He just can't/won't produce enough in a short time.
"There will be plenty." Wishful thinking, I guess?

One question, do you know how to predict demand?

Many businesses have been trying to do so for 100's of years, literally, and it's even put many companies under. Sure, there is a mathematical formula that can get you in the ballpark, but it's filled with X's and most of those X's are based on educated guesses, and new, and old theories that don't always give you what you need.

I'm just saying it's awful arrogant, and self centered to assume that Cliff should have known what the demand would be. It is far more likely, in the real world, that he didn't account for some large group that didn't show up in his calculations, than to assume he's being a jerk to push up prices. Mostly because this doesn't fit Cliffs past MO, and secondly, if Cliff was know to do this, there wouldn't be a demand for the Axe-II at all, cause he would have killed his business with the ULTRA, simply by work of mouth.

I'm not trying to call you names, I just don't think you understand what you are inferring when you say things like that.

 

[or8ital]

Well there were ttwo wait lists and a poll on the forum that gave him fairly accurate numbers of real initial demand. Even that's doesn't seem to be being met (at launch).

 

[levipeto]

One question, do you know how to predict demand?
...
I'm just saying it's awful arrogant, and self centered to assume that Cliff should have known what the demand would be.
...

After calling worried customers whiners (turns out they saw the problem better then Cliff) and telling them chillex and there are plenty etc, its kind of awkward to say that.

As I always said on the forum in different cases: You can have attitude but then better back it up.

 

[smilefan]

Well there were ttwo wait lists and a poll on the forum that gave him fairly accurate numbers of real initial demand. Even that's doesn't seem to be being met (at launch).

Agreed. It seemed quite obvious from the polls and wait lists that initial demand was going to be in the 1000-1500 unit area,
at minimum.

 

[Guitar-Tiz]

Well there were ttwo wait lists and a poll on the forum that gave him fairly accurate numbers of real initial demand. Even that's doesn't seem to be being met (at launch).

So the people that don't post where counted, and what about the people who don't even have a Forum account, and those that think polls are stupid? As far as you know, the people that don't even post might have gotten most of the Axe-II before anyone else? Or maybe it was a bunch of lucky guys that where googling about the Axe-FX at the right time. You don't know, and there's no way to tell, cause Cliff hasn't reported any of that information.

Like I said, there is NO way to predict demand. You can't force everyone to speak up, and say, YES, I will buy one. I personally don't think this forum makes up for more than about 10% of all Axe owners myself, so as far as you know, he had more than enough to fill the "poll" but an unforeseen group of people swooped in and bought them all.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that I don't get the harsh attitude toward Cliff, it seems to me that it's simply a bunch of ungrateful crap. Every word against him lately has been misquoted hearsay, and speculation about passed on speculation from unverified sources.

Give the man a break. Sure, he's filled with hyperbole, and he's quite sure of everything, but he doesn't deserve to be harassed for that.

As many have already said, just be patient, or buy something else.

 

[Guitar-Tiz]

After calling worried customers whiners (turns out they saw the problem better then Cliff) and telling them chillex and there are plenty etc, its kind of awkward to say that.

As I always said on the forum in different cases: You can have attitude but then better back it up.

Worried about what? Not being the first guy on the block to have one? Seriously? If it's that big of a deal to be the first Axe-II owner, you either need to put on a diaper and drive your ass to his house, or maybe step back and take a gander at your priorities. Whichever seems less crazy to you.

 

[or8ital]

I think you completely missed my point. He isn't meeting what he did know. So why even discuss the demand he didn't know?

 

[Guitar-Tiz]

I think you completely missed my point. He isn't meeting what he did know. So why even discuss the demand he didn't know?

Because the one is related to the other. How hard is this to understand.

If you have 1000 units ready to go, because that's what the PERCEIVED demand was going to be, and those 1000 sold out and not everyone that wanted one got one , it doesn't matter WHO got them, be it a person here, there, or on the moon, it still affects those same 1000 units. It's not like he could stop people from buying if they didn't fill out the poll.

The proof, the Axe-II's are still selling out at the inflated rate, and I haven't seen but a few people speak up about buying a new unit today. If they don't post here, or even have an account, then no one would know anything.

No one knows for sure how many have sold, you can make all sorts of wild predictions, but there is NO proof one way or the other, and no one has any REAL evidence as to how many units where first built, so the fact is that he may very well have sold out 10,000 units by now, and until Cliff says otherwise, there is no proof to the contrary.