Help the Fight Against COVID-19

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Thailand taking it very seriously.
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a camping area an hour drive from here was reported to be swarmed with people from new York running from the craziness. i'm not sure how they think that could help their situation? public bathrooms and showers, no hospitals and limited food and supply outlets?

They prefer to not getting locked in?
 
I've emailed my governor twice imploring him to shut everything down but, alas, no response.

It’s crazy that some states aren’t following the examples of the states that are getting hit hard. Although here in West Virginia, we have a low number of cases compared to others, our governor shut the state down very early.

During the worst days in China, they were out spraying streets, enforcing isolation, etc. But here, many local law enforcement officials said they weren’t even going to enforce the governor’s mandate. It’s crazy.
 
numbers are on their way to insane...

In general, most people (myself included) have a hard time fathoming exponential growth.

How many times would you need to fold a standard piece of 0.1 mm paper in half to reach the moon? the answer is 42
 
How many times would you need to fold a standard piece of 0.1 mm paper in half to reach the moon? the answer is 42

I had to look it up.

Math:
if the paper is folded 42 times, then there would be 2^42 (=4,398,046,511,104) layers of paper. Standard office paper is 0.1 mm thick. So
2^42 / 10 = 439 billion mm, / 1000 = 439 million meters, / 1000 = 439,000 kilometers,
which roughly matches the 405,000 km to the moon (at the farthest point in its elliptical orbit)

:oops:
 
I've emailed my governor twice imploring him to shut everything down but, alas, no response.

I'm so not into politics, government, right or left, however... I just watch NY gov. Andrew Cuomo's (unscripted) live press conference from the Javits center. Being I have such contempt for the average politician, I found it surprisingly very impressive.

A high-level summary; He addressed the Amry Corps Engineers and gave accolades for converting it into a massive temporary hospital. The plan is to do this again for the remaining 4 Boros of NY (ASAP).

He also stated at this juncture, it has been mandated that if you can't pay your rent for 90 days you cannot be evicted.
  • No sugar coating
  • No politicking
  • No bullshit, just the ugly facts
  • What's been done, what going to be done and how we're going to get there.
As a New Yorker, I was deeply moved and uplifted. Unlike others, the man gives me real hope.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo is a national treasure.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/opinions/thank-god-for-andrew-cuomo-filipovic/index.html
 
@Donnie B.:
Finally figured out why they're not making the defense act official.
That would mean GOVERNMENT stepping in and FORCING private industry to do their bidding.
That could be deemed Socialism, or even worse, Communism by the base, who voted to get
government's hands out of their business.
By, "[I f]inally figured out why they're not making the defense act official" are you saying (and I ask this respectfully) ...are you saying, "I finally succeeded in reading the minds of the decision-makers?"

I apologize; I genuinely don't mean that to sound snarky. But I worry that you're taking persons to whom you're already inclined (however mildly) to ascribe foolishness or ill-intent, and when you see a behavior that doesn't make sense to you, confirmation-bias nudges you towards settling on an explanation that contains (surprise!) foolishness and/or ill-intent.

This happens to me, too, and here's the only technique I've learned for avoiding: I do a bit of "method acting." I try to put myself in their shoes and give a couple of paragraph's defense/explanations, as if I were that person/group, of their actions. I jot this down as a sort of prediction, a hypothesis. And then I try to go looking for what they actually said about their reasons. If my prediction of their motives/self-justification matches the justification they actually offered (and I have reason to believe they're not being dishonest about them), then my "model of their interior thought-life" has proven reliably predictive (at least in one test). If not, then there's a good chance that my model of their interior thought-life is faulty and needs revising.

Now that I've said this, I guess it's obvious that I regard mind-reading of this kind to be a character flaw in me, when I do it. But, I guess it's also obvious that I think your interpretation of their motives is incorrect...and this implies that I, too, have some theory as to "what they're thinking." So, does that make me a hypocrite on this point? Yep, it does. I'm a doofus about this. (But an honest and apologetic one, I hope.)

Anyway, now that I've admitted that, let me (in a friendly way) state how I think you could adjust your model of "what the administration is thinking" to make it more predictive of their words and actions:

#1 - I'm betting their decision are very strongly influenced by their understanding of the difference-in-roles of the states and the federal government. So long as state governors and local governments seem to be making the correct decisions for their states and localities (which differ wildly in how far-advanced COVID-19 is), the current administration sees its role as coordinating information and providing support. It wants New York as the Subject-Matter Expert (SME) for fixing New York (with whatever assistance New York requests). It regards Kansas as the SME for fixing Kansas (with whatever assistance Kansas requests). It thinks Germany is better at fixing Germany than France is; and France is better at fixing France than Germany is; and individual states in the U.S. are more comparable (in economic size and complexity) to full-size European nation-states than they are to, say, counties or shires in the U.K. Hence, in their view, New York governor Cuomo ought properly to be the face of handling and recovering from the crisis in New York (and ignored by Kansas, who should look instead to Laura Kelly), but Cuomo should feel twice as empowered as he usually does, because every request for federal assistance gets granted.

#2 - Also, I think they would describe regulatory direction of industry towards the national good (as defined by legislation or executive fiat) as fascism rather than socialism, whereas socialism would involve national ownership of industry with ideological advancement being the goal (rather than the national good, which is often sacrificed in favor of the ideology). In the current crisis, the administration would (quite reasonably, I think) expect to be accused of fascism if they exceeded their scope of authority by intruding on state or local governance. Thus, empowering states rather than directly governing them serves as a firewall against such accusations.

#3 - Although the administration's on-camera talkers are saying encouraging, optimistic, and even braggadocious things about how the various agencies handled the crisis, I think they (and we all) know that the CDC stumbled pretty badly at the outset, taking at least a month-and-a-half to get off the starting line. (Gee, just imagine how things might have been different if the Chinese government hadn't suppressed information for a month-and-a-half! ...but I digress.) I suspect, therefore, that the administration regards the current CDC as a somewhat shaky reed to lean on...and is using CDC more as an information clearinghouse than an organization for directing efforts.

@Donnie B., I might be wrong. Maybe they're not thinking of any of that. But keeping the 3 factors listed above in mind has, for me, been fairly predictive of what they would say or do next, and seems (looking backward) to match what they've said or done thus far.

What more can one ask, of such a theory?
 
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I had to look it up.



:oops:
Exponential growth.

It's why people are having a hard time understanding Cliff's projections, which I must say have been astounding!

We don't understand exponential growth so we are grossly underestimating the impact.

Cliff may not be a medical doctor like someone said, implying he doesn't know what he's talking about, but he DOES know maths, and this is straight out of a maths book exponential curve.
 
Thailand taking it very seriously.
I recommend googling everything that Taiwan, S Korea and China have done and the timeline they did it in. Compare that action list and timeline to the USA action list and timeline. We have a bunch of geeks here; we can visualize that data.

Regarding ideologies (freedom, force, something inbetween, bla bla bla), the only ideology we need to get fanatical about right now is epidemiology (not an ideology but you get my point). I'm guessing Asian countries in a pandemic are driven more by epidemiological ideology than political ideology, and I bet their numbers will reflect that after this is over (and then they'll return to politics as usual).

People can say or believe or broadcast or exemplify whatever message they want right now and NONE of it matters. Why? Because the virus and it's brutal reality is the ultimate messenger overruling all ideologies -- epidemiologists understand this. They understand it is the virus that ultimately sets the timelines, actions, budgets, logistics, strategy etc., the virus IS is the message; it's the ideology; it's the driving force.

The real leaders understand that and act accordingly.
The rest are just shoving bodies in front of bullets so to speak.
 
I'll take that bet. I bet deaths won't be a quarter of that, at least in the US (in relative terms).
The rates are rising due to increased testing. The numbers are skewed by the fact that it was probably much more numerous months ago, and wasn't known to be - it's both more contagious and less deadly than previously thought.

Here in Australia we've had mass testing (most in the world per capita, IIRC) and that has revealed it's simply much less deadly than first thought. Even Imperial College is revising their estimates down from 500k deaths to 20k deaths.

Tell that to the families of the 900+ dead in Italy over the last 24 hrs

Or the families of the 26k people whose loved ones have been lost so far worldwide in a short space of time.

Tell that to the lady who lost her mother, 2 sisters and brother in a week cuz of this thing, that it's not as deadly as you thought.

Think about that for a minute.

It is not as deadly as say Ebola but it is VERY contagious! Which makes it VERY hard to control, VERY widespread and VERY difficult to stop the impact it's having.

If Ebola (which was easily contained) kills 9 out of 10 and spreads to 1000 people you have 900 dead people and it's over.

This may kill just about 3% of the 80% of the population that get it, but with 7 billion people in the world, well you can do the math.....

It's not as DEADLY, but it will KILL MORE PEOPLE

We have to understand that first.....
 
drove out to take my aunt some things and saw drive throughs backed up to the highway, Walmart and grocery store parking lots full, more traffic out than a week ago. people are not listening :rolleyes:
 
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Tell that to the families of the 900+ dead in Italy over the last 24 hrs

Or the families of the 26k people whose loved ones have been lost so far worldwide in a short space of time.

Tell that to the lady who lost her mother, 2 sisters and brother in a week cuz of this thing, that it's not as deadly as you thought.

Think about that for a minute.

It is not as deadly as say Ebola but it is VERY contagious! Which makes it VERY hard to control, VERY widespread and VERY difficult to stop the impact it's having.

If Ebola (which was easily contained) kills 9 out of 10 and spreads to 1000 people you have 900 dead people and it's over.

This may kill just about 3% of the 80% of the population that get it, but with 7 billion people in the world, well you can do the math.....

It's not as DEADLY, but it will KILL MORE PEOPLE

We have to understand that first.....
I don’t quite follow why your post has to start with shaming. The person you are replying to has said the exact same thing that you are saying - it is less deadly but more contagious. He specifically says that in his post.

We all understand the toll of this disease in terms of absolute numbers. And we all understand that at the end of the day, every one of those numbers is a person, who has a family.

The only thing the person who you are replying to was trying to challenge was the projected number. You can disagree with their projections, which is fair.

But let’s understand that we are all people here, and we all understand what people around the world are going through. It doesn’t have to be drilled again and again and in such a condescending manner.
 
All the numbers everyone has posted here since the beginning of this are basically meaningless. All they are is projections of what will probably happen if things continue exactly as they are now. Trump could impose martial law and force everyone to stay home for a month, or he could tell all the businesses to open back up tomorrow and tell us to resume our normal daily lives. Someone could invent a cure for it tomorrow. Etc. I’m not arguing with anyone’s math, facts, data. I’m just saying there’s so many variables that could alter the course of this for better or worse that no one can reliably say “here’s what’s gonna happen” period.
 
I been explaining to my parents that flatten the curve... is going to be a tough thing for them. The peak will either plateau and slowly decrease ,.. or be parabolic and and then slowly decrease... they need to ride out the descending plateau... and that's going to be a long time. When they give the ok to move forward... that they wont be able to reassimilate. I've told them maybe August
 
I don’t quite follow why your post has to start with shaming. The person you are replying to has said the exact same thing that you are saying - it is less deadly but more contagious. He specifically says that in his post.

We all understand the toll of this disease in terms of absolute numbers. And we all understand that at the end of the day, every one of those numbers is a person, who has a family.

The only thing the person who you are replying to was trying to challenge was the projected number. You can disagree with their projections, which is fair.

But let’s understand that we are all people here, and we all understand what people around the world are going through. It doesn’t have to be drilled again and again and in such a condescending manner.

No shaming intended, this is reiterating that we need to take this seriously - so many people and countries still aren't! And will suffer massively because of it.

This is to stop people from thinking it's not as lethal so it's okay - only when we understand that it will kill an enormous number of people, people we know and love and look up to, that we will take this as seriously as we need to
 
By, "[I f]inally figured out why they're not making the defense act official" are you saying (and I ask this respectfully) ...are you saying, "I finally succeeded in reading the minds of the decision-makers?"

You are taking me WAY too literal. I'm just chatting and passing the time.
Not making any declarations! ;)
 
All the numbers everyone has posted here since the beginning of this are basically meaningless. All they are is projections of what will probably happen if things continue exactly as they are now. Trump could impose martial law and force everyone to stay home for a month, or he could tell all the businesses to open back up tomorrow and tell us to resume our normal daily lives. Someone could invent a cure for it tomorrow. Etc. I’m not arguing with anyone’s math, facts, data. I’m just saying there’s so many variables that could alter the course of this for better or worse that no one can reliably say “here’s what’s gonna happen” period.
One thing they aren't factoring in that due to social distancing and shelter in place.. what percentage that will cut exposure... over 50% wont be exposed.
And then the 80% of those who wont show symptoms...etc. And then the effects of flattening the curve cuts it even more..
 
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