NOT COMPLETE OR OFFICIAL - FM9 Waitlist Tracker

GuitarGuy316 said:
Doesn’t mean anyone is buying them at that price.
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This is the data I pulled from Reverb. Looks like 29 transactions in last month. Looks like a few people lost money but most broke even and came out with a little extra.
11/15/2021Mint$2,500
11/15/2021Mint$2,275
11/15/2021Mint$2,983.18
11/13/2021Mint$2,299
11/12/2021Mint$1,650
11/12/2021Mint$1,950
11/12/2021Mint$1,800
11/12/2021Mint$1,999
11/09/2021Mint$2,200
11/09/2021Mint$2,050
11/08/2021Excellent$1,950
11/07/2021Mint$1,899
11/07/2021Mint$2,295
11/02/2021Mint$1,950
11/01/2021Mint$2,050
10/31/2021Mint$1,975
10/31/2021Mint$2,380
10/29/2021Mint$2,050
10/28/2021Mint$1,980
10/27/2021Mint$1,950
10/27/2021Mint$1,940
10/23/2021Mint$2,100
10/21/2021Mint$2,480
10/19/2021Mint$2,250
10/15/2021Mint$2,250
10/15/2021Mint$2,250
10/14/2021Mint$2,499
10/09/2021Mint$2,600
10/08/2021Mint$2,599
 
Based on the Waitlist Tracker, I'm one hour and 2 invites away from getting an invite. I can't believe ( but of course, it IS my luck) that the doors have closed until next spring. So close and so far away. Oh well.... o_O :huh

Edit: Well now, a simple turn of fate, a change in luck, or a deterministic universe playing out on the time continuum that I don't know about.... I got my freaking invite this morning!! Today was a hospital shift for me and there's no reception/wifi that works there - it's a dead zone, but I had to go out to my car for something and just randomly checked my email, and there it was/is. Made my day!!!! Thanks, Cliff et all.

jon
 
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I found an interesting article from July 2011. It was an interview with Cliff Chase about the release of the AxeFX II. I am too new here to post links but you can find the article by googling "Guitar Messenger Fractal". It is actually a great overall article.

In the article, Cliff talks about how they sold out in 10 seconds and how the ordering was driven by bots.

This is the quote from Cliff Chase:
CC: Literally ten seconds. It was ridiculous. [laughs…] Well, people are running bots or scripts or something. They’ve got these HTML scripts or whatever that are just sitting there constantly pinging the server and then as soon as it shows as being in stock it just enters all the information automatically and places the order. But they get first in line that way. It’s a little crazy.

So I guess this has been a long-standing thing, probably 1000s of orders in the first 10 seconds. What we are capturing in the spreadsheet is likely the tip of the ice burg in terms of total orders from the first hour.

I guess the good news is that we will likely see an increase in invites after the 8/27 orders are done.
 
I created a little console app that attempts to predict when you will receive your invite based on your position in the spreadsheet. This program is very simple and is making some assumptions regarding the number of invites per weekday (excluding holidays). This is the output.

It would be interesting to see how close it gets.

[removed because this will make life difficult for our sales team]
 
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It seems like the major flaw in that, is you’ve assumed linear production output, when we all know, based on Admin M@‘s quote below, that there is coming a “gap” pretty soon:

Admin M@ said:
We're closing in on the end of this first phase so we've had to slow down invites to avoid accidentally overselling.
Within about a week, I think we'll be out of units until we can resupply -- now expected to be in February or March.
I'll post an update when that happens.
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Fireproof said:
It seems like the major flaw in that, is you’ve assumed linear production output, when we all know, based on Admin M@‘s quote below, that there is coming a “gap” pretty soon:
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Yeah, I also thought about the gap mentioned by M@ when looking at @whacktal 's list. Even so, I like such a list because, if anything, it shows the likely earliest possible date (Christmas-ish for me, which will likely be April-ish based on the gap).

Knowing the earliest possible date allows me to relax and stop reading the Waitlist Email and Waitlist Tracker threads every other day.

But then I read them anyways.
 
Fireproof said:
It seems like the major flaw in that, is you’ve assumed linear production output, when we all know, based on Admin M@‘s quote below, that there is coming a “gap” pretty soon:
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Exactly. There's no way to make any sort of guess, which is why I don't when I post a chart. We can look back with 20/20 hindsight, but looking forward is a total crapshoot.
 
I went overnight air Tuesday. My FM9 arrived today. Does that mean I get some refund from UPS? I will try to find out.
Anyway, The FM9 is a blast (See my first impressions post in the review section, if interested). I highly recommend it. Best of luck on your wait.
 
mixministermike said:
UPS screwed me, went for 2 day shipping and it's turning into at least four. Happy Thanksgiving!
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FedEx is also having problems living up to their commitments. Once it's arrived you can call the shipper (in this case Fractal) and ask for a refund of the difference, at least that's what FedEx told me.
 
Greg Ferguson said:
FedEx is also having problems living up to their commitments. Once it's arrived you can call the shipper (in this case Fractal) and ask for a refund of the difference, at least that's what FedEx told me.
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Oh yeah, Fedex Ground to the Pacific Northwest USA is a total cluster and has been for over a year. There's a facility in Oregon outside of Portland where packages consistently disappear for several days.

My FM9 arrived today, all is well!
 
I just did the regular shipping. It gets north of the border pretty quickly. Times are busy right now with the holidays approaching.

BTW....forgot to say thanks to Arstocker for running this great unofficial list.
 
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