FM3 Now Shipping

mikhael47 said:
I think the speculation that the start of the wait list would be particularly heavy, then start to accelerate was somewhat accurate!
Click to expand...
People are like that; The initial AX8 waitlist had to be processed, then all the people who jumped in when the FM3 was announced. I suspect the second occasion was sure to be a big spike, then it tapered off as time passed until the additions to the list were just a few a day. Plus the pipeline for products are being adjusted to account for the effects of the virus on manufacturing so they're finally able to get units in volume again.

It's been a tough year for Fractal and expect there were multiple occasions when they wondered what else could go wrong, and there would have been some loud cussing if it'd happened someplace I was working. I think they've done really well.
 
Here is the updated plot I've been doing:

1598385453818.png

And since Northtrader had put this dimension out, I also included the wait as a function of invite date. As he rightfully pointed out, this shows the acceleration as we move through the list. The original plot still allows you to guesstimate the wait based on when you were added. Interestingly, that plot is still staying remarkably linear.

1598385609775.png
 
TheloniusJ said:
Here is the updated plot I've been doing:

View attachment 71831

And since Northtrader had put this dimension out, I also included the wait as a function of invite date. As he rightfully pointed out, this shows the acceleration as we move through the list. The original plot still allows you to guesstimate the wait based on when you were added. Interestingly, that plot is still staying remarkably linear.

View attachment 71832
Click to expand...
The second is closer to what I imagined it’d look like.
 
Got on waitlist: 10/08/2019
Received my invitation: 08/26/2020

And, BTW, they mail them out all day long. Mine was sent at 10:21am. The email is a template and still contains the “We previously sent you an invitation for a "first run" unit with no headphones jack.” verbiage, but that’s an easily ignored thing because, because, eh, who cares?
 
I am wondering what they do with stock that people have assigned to them on the waitlist but they don't hear back from right away... I guess they likely give out a few more invites than they have stock for....
 
mikhael47 said:
I am wondering what they do with stock that people have assigned to them on the waitlist but they don't hear back from right away... I guess they likely give out a few more invites than they have stock for....
Click to expand...

They'll continue sending out invites, and if they run out of stock it doesn't matter if your name came up they're out of stock. That's what they did a few weeks ago when the stock ran out. Your invite stays valid and when stock returns you can order again.
 
northtrader said:
Based on the most recent information (posts in this thread) the 'fill rate' is flattening out a bit. Following the trend line we get the following:
View attachment 71875

Just biding some time and waiting like everyone else.
Don't take the analysis too seriously.
Click to expand...

Nice! What did you use for your regression (and is this R or Python)? I just threw my stuff together using Pandas, and it doesn't have any good "out of the box" regression stuff for time series data.

Regardless, this is cool and is squaring with my hope that I get an invite by my birthday in mid-October. I'm guessing there was another surge of waitlist sign-ups around April of this year when the units started shipping, so we may get another stall when the invite dates get there, but I'd guess it still puts us being caught up by at least early November.
 
TheloniusJ said:
Nice! What did you use for your regression (and is this R or Python)? I just threw my stuff together using Pandas, and it doesn't have any good "out of the box" regression stuff for time series data.

Regardless, this is cool and is squaring with my hope that I get an invite by my birthday in mid-October. I'm guessing there was another surge of waitlist sign-ups around April of this year when the units started shipping, so we may get another stall when the invite dates get there, but I'd guess it still puts us being caught up by at least early November.
Click to expand...

It looks like Google Sheets (Excel) to me.
 
Mine expected to arrive from G66 second half of September... with headphones output. I signed wait list July, 7th, 2019.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom