Fast forward to 2015, what's next?

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famished

Member
I bought an Ultra, but for the basic ingredients, the Standard does the same job.

Let's fast forward a few years. What will Cliff do to improve his product?

* Let's assume that Cliff has marketed a stripped-down Axe-FX to the masses, challenging the Pod, and the Pod has responded. and now the basic technology is readily available for $300. He might even find a way to get the same functionality in a smaller box.

But what could he do to improve the sound?

* He could move towards higher sampling rates, I guess.

* He could improve the distortion pedal modelling, particularly for germanium fuzz.

* Perhaps he could offer more in the way of room modelling and configuration.

* For mic simulation, he could add a bit that specifies how far the mic would be from the cab, and to what angle, etc.

Anything else? I'm more interested in how the bedrock sound can be improved, with added depth, and an increasingly more lifelike feel.
 
This makes me think of a quote I love. "Tomorrow is promised to no one." Don't know who said it, but it's true.
Just enjoy the thing. I do believe that this little box has raised the bar for all the companies in the modelling game and I think we'll see a lot of them trying real hard to get their software to sound as good. This thing is great for us and great for the industry.
 
famished said:
* Let's assume that Cliff has marketed a stripped-down Axe-FX to the masses, challenging the Pod,
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I believe that's a fundmentally erroneous assumption.

and now the basic technology is readily available for $300.
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Some things (e.g., computing power, memory density) scale and therefore become cheaper over time. Others (e.g., analog noise floor, A/D linearity) much less so. Much of what sets the Axe-Fx apart is in the second category, which makes the likelihood of a $300 box IMO very low.

He might even find a way to get the same functionality in a smaller box.
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The guts of the existing unit would already fit in a smaller box.

* He could move towards higher sampling rates, I guess.
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There is no improvement to be found there for guitar use. The 24kHz bandwidth of the existing unit is already sonic overkill.

* He could improve the distortion pedal modelling, particularly for germanium fuzz.
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That is completely doable in the present device via firmware development. I don't ever use distortion blocks, but I am led to understand that there have already been major improvements in that area.

* Perhaps he could offer more in the way of room modelling and configuration.
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In a guitar modeler? That sells for $300? Nope.

* For mic simulation, he could add a bit that specifies how far the mic would be from the cab, and to what angle, etc.
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That must either be done via "modeling" (which is just EQ in the boxes that do this) or multiple IRs for each speaker. The former really doesn't work, and the latter is extremely memory-intensive. I'd say it's possible that the latter approach could see the light of day in future Fractal products, but they are likely to cost more, not less, than the Axe-Fx.
 
since we're speculating, I agree with Jay that $300 is not going to happen. IIRC, you can't even buy one of the single processors for that price, so thinking that a newer processor would be cheaper than that, plus all the other components... it just seems too unrealistic of an expectation or assumption.

I also agree though, that any likely sonic improvement will be in the area of the cabs/reverbs/mic sims. They're already excellent as-is, but improvements would allow greater variation without requiring custom cabs. Larger or more oddly-shaped rooms -- or maybe the customization would be that we'd get to load full 3D representations of a room and the reflective quality of its surfaces in. But not for 2015. Later than that.

More likely, I think we'd see improvements in the interface. There might be cheaper LED-based screens instead of the LCD. It'll be brighter, and could show the stereo routing and levels in color. The buttons and menu navigation might undergo a slight reorganization. It will be compressed down to a 1U form and have the instrument jack's hardware on both front and back. The tempo light will have pulse/strobe options, there will be more instances of each effect block allowed, and an easier way of stepping through each of their parameters. The help doc will be included on the unit -- select a parameter and press the question mark button for instant info on what it is, what it can do, how it's been used on records of the past, and suggested settings to try. Also, wireless data transmission will be built in -- no need to mess with your MIDI cables anymore. And it'll have a silent fan. ;) That's my guesses anyway!
 
You know, when I bought my Ultra in August 2007, I was convinced this was the ultimate piece of gear, and that it wouldn't get any better than that.

Since then, Cliff has revolutionized it several times (i.e. massive improvements to amp models, the ability to load user IRs, 1024 cab sims, real-time midi control of amp block gain levels, many additional amp models, deep editing capabilities of amp blocks, and many more).

In my view, the Axe has surpassed itself at least 3 or 4 times already in 18 months. And all that without changing the hardware.

What's my point? Until a massively more powerful DSP chip comes along, I think the entire evolution path is all software based, and Cliff seems to be enjoying it tremendously (as we all are too). Like Jay said, this type of quality won't go down in price significantly like most commodity items. Rather, I think Cliff will ride that hardware platform for a long while. Even if you gave him a better DSP, he may not even want to use it just yet (the capacity of the one in the Axe has not been used to its limit yet).

2015 to me means a few more firmware updates, and possibly one new platform if superior DSPs come out at a practical price point (emphasis on the price thing).

Daniel
 
Dpoirier said:
.....What's my point? Until a massively more powerful DSP chip comes along, I think the entire evolution path is all software based, and Cliff seems to be enjoying it tremendously (as we all are too). Like Jay said, this type of quality won't go down in price significantly like most commodity items. Rather, I think Cliff will ride that hardware platform for a long while. Even if you gave him a better DSP, he may not even want to use it just yet (the capacity of the one in the Axe has not been used to its limit yet).

2015 to me means a few more firmware updates, and possibly one new platform if superior DSPs come out at a practical price point (emphasis on the price thing).

Daniel
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Cliff did comment at some point that he has algo's that will allow for much better cab sims and other stuff .. but it will need way more dsp horsepower that is readily available for a reasonable price ...

Mik.
 
2015:

Most current guitar modellers & Variax guitars ... do not work anymore.
Since the old time parts are not available anymore it's not possible to repair this old stuff.

The latest version of the iPhone has an inbuilt Pod, Vetta & AxeFx simulator for some retro freaks.

Modern beginners guitars have all the classical amp simulations/effects inbuilt.

Pro gear is still a wooden guitar and a tube amp.
The old tube amps need a tube swap from time to time - and work fine - in 2015 - and even 3015.
 
Armin said:
Pro gear is still a wooden guitar and a tube amp.
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4 or 5 amps, a great room or two - rented or purchased - commuting to get to it (need a car or a big house), and a batch of mics. Plus all the effects. Wires everywhere, slipped disks.

There are hidden costs. Sure, maybe in 10 years you gotta replace your Fractal Audio, like you would your computer. (My 2003 Mac is still viable for recording w Pro Tools.)

But I hear your point.

I think one fault with the modelers is they can never approximate the immediacy if feeling the audio all around you, in a space. I always feel like I'm playing to a room, rather than in a room. This would be a hurdle, if it could be somehow managed.

I remember Tom Scholz's Rockman seemed to change the world when it first came out. It would be interesting to hear it again. It wasn't that bad actually.
 
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