There are three factors to consider here:
1) Sound
2) Feel
3) Reliability
The answers imo are quite simple:
1) The sounds u gonna get from the AXE are completely authentic, they sound like tubeamps and react like tube amps 99,99999999% match if not 100%. Same with cabs as long as you use a FRFR system.
2) The thump and punch you describe are the product of high volume. The axe WILL give you that feeling of punch and thump and wind through ur legs, but only as long as you crank it up at tube amp volumes. Now if you can't play at high volumes due to ur kids, then neither a real amp or the axe will do, as in both of em at ear or room levels will lose the power to push air hard (thump and punch). In this case however, the AXE will still sound good tho, since u can crank the virtual power amp up independently from the real level of the amp. The real amp won't be able to do this.
3) Just as someone mentioned earlier, th AXE is made of ICs and porcessors. If something dies, there's no way u can fix it. Your tube amp can easily be worked around and replace the AXE in case such an improbable event occurs. Also, the bogner is a piece of nice furniture, and it has sentimental value.
Also consider this:
Is the bogner model going to sound exactly like yours? Most likely not, since the model in the AXE was brough from a different amp than yours, and no amp in the world is the same as the other, even if they are the same model, and were built on the very same day. This is due to slight variations in internat behaviour due to components, wiring and connections. However, you can make up for the differences, and make the AXE's model match yours by tweaking "internal" calues of the model that represent this very variations.
Lastly, about FRFR or a Real cab:
*Cabs are non-unitary, non-full-range filter, which means it will cut and amplify different frequencies, hence modifying the frequency spectrum of whatever came in. A unitary filter, keeps whatever comes out the same way it went in, so it won't modify the input. It kinda does nothing.
Suppose u place ur ear right next to a real cab, say, a 1960A, so the path is: Amp > 1960A (Filter) > Ear.
You would be listening to the amp through a 1960A cab.
Now swap the amp for an AXE with only an amp block on. Then it would still be: Amp > 1960A (Filter) > Ear.
You would be listening to the amp through a 1960A cab.
Say you add a Cab block/IR (Filter) in the AXE, that's based on a 4x12 Fawn. Then it would be: Amp > Fawn (Filter)*1960A (Filter) > Ear.
You would be listening the amp through neither the 1960A nor the Fawn, but a convolution of both.
How to solve this?
Instead of using the 1960A, use a FRFR system which is a unitary filter. Then it would be: Amp > Fawn (Filter)*FRFR system (Filter) > Ear.
Since the FRFR system is a unitary filter, we can say:
FRFR system (Filter) = 1
And thus substitute "FRFR system (Filter)" for a "1"
This way, you'll have the following:
Amp > Fawn (Filter)*FRFR system (Filter) > Ear.
Amp > Fawn (Filter)*1 > Ear.
Amp > Fawn (Filter)> Ear.
And you would be listening to a amp through a Fawn.
Now, since the Fawn is an IR, and there are thousands of IRs, substitute the Fawn for any other IR... you can pretty much get any cab u want.
I play different tube amps whenever I go to rehearsals or studios, and to me, using the AXE is like using just another tube amp with a cab. I don't spot any difference or feel like I lose anything by one day using the AXE or a tube amp. You could fool me if you cover my eyes, and bring me to a studio/rehearsal/whatever and there's an AXE cranked up right behind me. Imma just think oh it's another tube amp.
tl;dr the axe is awesome, buy 2.