Help the Fight Against COVID-19

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thepacifist20130 said:
Wouldn’t you pray that the infections are NOT the same? If they were the same, that means there is no adaptive immunity and vaccines are useless
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Uh oh, didn't realize I'd have to back up my rambling posts with facts. Presumably, if they were the same, you're body would have immunity and the "reinfection" was a testing error or early hospital release. If they were different, the virus mutated enough to evade your immunity to the first infection, making it very difficult to develop a vaccine.
 
FractalAudio said:
Hopefully. The problem is that the reported number of cases lags the actual number of cases by about 14 days. It works like this:
1. Person gets infected on Day 1.
2. Person shows symptoms on Day 6.
3. Symptoms worsen to the point of requiring a trip to the doctor on Day 10. Test is administered.
4. Test takes 2-3 days for results. Infection confirmed on Day 13.
5. Statistics updated on Day 14.

Therefore the number of infections is two weeks ahead of the number of cases. Given the growth rate in Italy of 1.21 there will be 15 times as many cases and deaths by the end of the month. There are currently 1266 deaths so there will be 19K by the end of the month.

Once mitigation is initiated the curve goes from exponential to linear. Then it flattens and then it decreases.
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Regardless of the actual numbers, the concept you outline I think this is the hardest part for many people to grasp. Lagging metrics are quite often very hard to grasp, and the larger the lag, the harder it is, and the harder reality can hit. once we see the trend turn the corner, people have their oh shit moment and react (often incorrectly but in the only way they know how), but regardless by then it's too late. After they take action, and the trend doesn't immediately stop, anxiety gets worse. I see it all the time in my role doing QC testing on products. 2 week lag can lead to some serious "yo-yoing" of dataas people react to the time the data is available, not to when it was generated. they often attack the wrong thing, or attack too late.

It's so hard to tell people that something is coming, be ready. And the fact that so many people seem to be of the attitude "well, science is wrong all the time so I don't know what to believe" just makes it so much worse and infuriating. and that's not even delving into the ridiculous conspiracy theories that make it worse.

last point... this isn't the only disaster where this is an issue, this is just a visibly compressed timeline so the fear is imminent. I hope people (though I have little faith they will) look at how this unfolds and think about more long term issues and their parallels to this. calling things a hoax, conspiracy, downplaying the risk, etc is huge in why we are where we are. the lagging metric of a couple weeks sucks, a lagging metric of years or decades could be much much worse.
 
sheky said:
No more toilet paper so they hung some gloves. That's pretty gross.
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Gloves aren't bad. 🧤

But whatever happened to human ingenuity and resourcefulness? Necessity is the mother of invention: coffee filters, newspaper, crumpled up printer paper, rags, etc will do if needed. Americans are so sheltered and privileged don't know how adapt and freak out at disruptions to normalcy, while a good part of humanity deals with and adapts to way worse situations all the time.
 
yyz67 said:
Gloves aren't bad. 🧤

But whatever happened to human ingenuity and resourcefulness? Necessity is the mother of invention: coffee filters, newspaper, crumpled up printer paper, rags, etc will do if needed. Americans are so sheltered and privileged don't know how adapt and freak out at disruptions to normalcy, while a good part of humanity deals with and adapts to way worse situations all the time.
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When I was a kid, my brother and I went for a hike and I needed to take a crap. Oak leaves work great as a substitute. 👍🏻
 
Dale LeClaire said:
calling things a hoax, conspiracy, downplaying the risk, etc is huge in why we are where we are.
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I never wish anyone ill-will, but those doing that purposely (in most cases for money or other sorts of gains) to a large, potentially gullible audience should all get it, be scared sh*tless for a couple of weeks, and then fully recover.
Maybe, just maybe it would be a wake up call and things would change when it comes to 'news people' blatantly lying in disregard of the consequences.

Or not.
 
the last public update for hawaii from our governor was about 5 days ago. at that time we had our 2nd case which was linked to the first.

i have inside information that the real number is about 100. our capitol and other related buildings suddenly shut down today. but no public statement. this is INSANE. sources saying they don't want to cause a panic.

so wait till it's 500 people then announce? you don't think that's more panic?

i don't understand. YES people will not like the numbers. YES people will go out and buy things. i just went out to several stores, all full. calm, but full and supplies are gone and shelves are bare. these are the proactive people.

but goddammit give us the real information so we can know what's going on. this is complete bullshit.

right now we're discussing how my small store is going to handle this and when we will close. i want to be AHEAD of the curve, not with it.

panic happens when stats are suddenly from 2 to 100 or 500 or more. i'm more angry than anything.

our state is reporting only 32 tests completed at this time. over 90 people were reported self-quarantined 5 days ago. the numbers don't add up.
 
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square is a POS credit card system that many small businesses use. after a while, they offer Capital, basically loans to help your company that get paid back through credit card sales. i've used it many times for my business for inventory or growth.

yesterday we had a large sum available to use. today it's gone. i asked, but i'm sure it's just gone.

here comes the money part of this whole thing.
 
Here in England we have the toilet paper thing too, What’s with that?
I was thinking cans of beans, Pepsi Max,throat sweets and paracetamol. To me, these people are preparing for the wrong Disease.
The governments response to the crisis is basically admitting lots and lots of us are going to get it (and there will be many deaths) but managing that peak of infections just like a low frequency resonance so not to over whelm the health service. It’s a scary tactic on the face of it and the emotional response is to “shut down the country” but when you think forward into the future it’s probably the right thing to do long term.
The economics of everything, especially in what some people call “mainland Europe” is A disaster. Italy and the entire eurozone is going to feel some serious pain.

This was the press conference that explained basically what the UK is doing. It’s a very different approach to what the others are doing And have done. It;s a bloody pickle Whatever works I guess....


The peak is expected around June and May last months, perhaps 13-14 weeks before declining.
 
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GlennO said:
I hope everyone in the US did their civic duty and watched the address from the leader of our nation today. If so, you learned he had an important message, and I quote: “I don’t take responsibility at all”.
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Rolling over in his grave and wishing he could kick his ass a few solid times.
harry-truman-the-buck-stops-here.jpg
 
HarrySound said:
I’ve watched a little US news the last day or so. I was quite impressed by the serious tone of CNN even if it did get slightly Hollywood end Game at times. They were talking about the tests you guys have and that will eventually be made available. Do you guys have to pay for those and how much is it? Or is it charged the insurance?
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people i know have told me through messaging that they've been denied tests, even after checking all the boxes for "high priority" testing. they said they still don't qualify.

my state is reporting 32 tests have been done total.
 
HarrySound said:
I’ve watched a little US news the last day or so. I was quite impressed by the serious tone of CNN even if it did get slightly Hollywood end Game at times. They were talking about the tests you guys have and that will eventually be made available. Do you guys have to pay for those and how much is it? Or is it charged the insurance?
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It's hard to say because the president made an announcement to the nation about how the costs of testing and treatment would be borne. However, his aides promptly sent out followup announcements that the president's announcement was wrong.
 
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