I hope fractal uses the 'al a carte' approach. This is a flawed analogy, but I think this analogy works...
Processors are a lot like cable TV or dish TV, etc....cable TV, or dish or whatever charges, say, $100 for 100 stations when I only watch 5 of them. However I'd be more than happy to pay $50 for the 5 that I actually watch and pocket the other $50. Therefore, as a result, I don't give them my money at all, and I watch TV using Netflix or Hulu. I think those in the market that Fractal is trying to appeal to (L6 and Boss users) subscribe to this mentality, somewhat. If they knew they could get a drastic increase in quality for double the price of their current rig, they'd do it. I know someone who personally told me that, actually. But, for now, they can't justify the cost of a rack mounted rig so they don't 'subscribe' at all. That's missed out revenue for Fractal because they don't have a product that can compete in that market.
With this in mind, Fractal could feasibly release an AX8 for less than $999 that has 0 amps and 0 effects loaded onto it... it's basically an empty firmware with nothing on it... but then charge something like $10 per effect block, and $10 per amp. You'd still have people who dump so much money in that they end up with a $1600 rig, and you'd have others with more simple rigs that cost like $1100. Fractal wins either way.
This approach is what the entire world is moving toward. Pay for what you want, cut out the rest, we want options, not something shoved down our throat. I think that's what's best here too... just my opinion.
Cheaper hardware plus downloadable content is a great idea and I'm completely game. Some maniacs need every downloadable feature, but I sure as hell don't. One of my biggest peeves with the AxeFX-2 was I paid $2200 for it, but basically used 4 patches 99% of the time.
My two major wishes:
1. Make the license transferable, in case you want to sell the board.
2. Have it work transparently in front of an amp, how the FX8 is supposed to.
I highly doubt this will ever be a problem. Remember that FAS is not only selling in the US, but international (with local distributers like G66 getting their share).Also, eventually the market will reach a point of saturation where there are too many FAS units in the market, and therefore not enough being sold, which means less revenue for FAS.
One of my biggest peeves with the AxeFX-2 was I paid $2200 for it, but basically used 4 patches 99% of the time.
I highly doubt this will ever be a problem. Remember that FAS is not only selling in the US, but international (with local distributers like G66 getting their share).
Also, keep in mind that with every standard unit sold, the profit margin gets bigger, as the engineering cost for developing the hardware and infrastructure has already been paid with previous units.
This means that in order to stay profitable, they have to sell less and less units over time - unless they have to engineer new hardware at some point. This is the case now, but also the reason why they aim for a new market and why it's not the time for an Axe III yet. It makes no sense to release an Axe III as long as the Axe II still sells like sliced bread and no competitor is on the horizon.
Growth–share matrix - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In this diagram, I'd probably rate the Axe II and XL somewhere between a "star" and a "cash cow", with the tendency to go cash cow over the next years (eventually, firmware upgrade will become more and more scarce until it's discontinued like the Ultra back in the days).
You know why the POD HD is so incredibly cheap? It's because all the engineering involved in making it has been paid long time ago (as lots of parts and modules got reused from it's predecessors). They can basicly sell at manufacturing cost plus (huge) profit margin. It's a typical cash cow getting milked until it's no longer profitable due to overhead. And that's when Line 6 will throw out a new unit recycling the hardware and algorithms once again, calling it super plus HD 1000+ to reach for new gullible customers. But hey, now with bluetooth!
But then what do you do for upgrades? Charge another $10 an amp/effect/etc? And then another $10 when Cliff has a second epiphany.... and a third... and fourth- say what FW are we on now just for the II? Thinking "frugal" often leads to spending more than what you would have in the first place...
Consider the upfront cost as "investing in FAS", and you may see a greater return on your money than you ever thought possible.
Cheaper hardware plus downloadable content is a great idea and I'm completely game. Some maniacs need every downloadable feature, but I sure as hell don't. One of my biggest peeves with the AxeFX-2 was I paid $2200 for it, but basically used 4 patches 99% of the time.
I don't think that the point of saturation will come any time soon. So far, the Axe is only a common sight among studios or professional musicians. I think there's a lot more potential customers out there in the amateur scene that Fractal can reach out for, especially in europe and asia. They just started to demolish the "tubes are superior" stigma. Whenever I'm out to see awesome local live bands, I almost never see an Axe. In fact, I haven't seen even a single unit in my hometown yet (I have once seen a single Kemper, tho). With more and more generations of younger musicians growing up with digital technology, I don't think we will hit the point of market saturation for pro-level modellers anytime soon.Yeah you're right about most of that stuff, I think. But the market for the AXE 2 is smaller than the market for other units like the HD500. So while it may not reach a point of true saturation, sales will inevitably slow down after a while.
You mentioned the POD HD, and that it's a typical cash cow getting milked until its no longer profitable due to overhead... the only reason that it may not be profitable due to overhead is because... the market reached a point of saturation and the sales slowed down. when sales slow down, overhead eats into profit, when profits are dipping, a shiny new toy needs to be released to get consumers to buy another product, even if that new shiny product is the same as the old product in a new package or with new features that few people care about. I already eluded to this point, and I don't think FAS will adopt this model.
I wonder which company have better sales rate: L6, "printer X", "mobile Y" or Fractal. I suspect it is Fractal, because of their sales policy. The best advertisment is in customer satisfaction and sharing. It seems Cliff hit the right spot: top hardware, free firmware upgrade. I don't get it in the beginning, now I can see clearly the advantages: this comunity has grown and so the product. I bet if Cliff had traded this vision for short time sell with "app" approach, most of us customer will be long gone, no longer interested in Fractal product. IMHO.Cliff HAS to grow and sell more units. The current business model needs tweaking for a product that's likely to have sales numbers an order of magnitude over the AFX
The "good guy" approach will only get you so far. Musicians, fortunately, are very loyal customers. That's part of the reason why it works. Don't try that in the mobile or printer industry, tho, as HP, Samsung and Apple will crush your lovely little candle with the financial equivalent of a supernova, then sue your remaining family for giving birth to you.I wonder which company have better sales rate: L6, "printer X", "mobile Y" or Fractal. I suspect it is Fractal, because of their sales policy. The best advertisment is in customer satisfaction and sharing. It seems Cliff hit the right spot: top hardware, free firmware upgrade. I don't get it in the beginning, now I can see clearly the advantages: this comunity has grown and so the product. I bet if Cliff had traded this vision for short time sell with "app" approach, most of us customer will be long gone, no longer interested in Fractal product. IMHO.
I wonder which company have better sales rate: L6, "printer X", "mobile Y" or Fractal. I suspect it is Fractal, because of their sales policy. The best advertisment is in customer satisfaction and sharing. It seems Cliff hit the right spot: top hardware, free firmware upgrade. I don't get it in the beginning, now I can see clearly the advantages: this comunity has grown and so the product. I bet if Cliff had traded this vision for short time sell with "app" approach, most of us customer will be long gone, no longer interested in Fractal product. IMHO.
I don't think that the point of saturation will come any time soon. So far, the Axe is only a common sight among studios or professional musicians. I think there's a lot more potential customers out there in the amateur scene that Fractal can reach out for, especially in europe and asia. They just started to demolish the "tubes are superior" stigma. Whenever I'm out to see awesome local live bands, I almost never see an Axe. In fact, I haven't seen even a single unit in my hometown yet (I have once seen a single Kemper, tho). With more and more generations of younger musicians growing up with digital technology, I don't think we will hit the point of market saturation for pro-level modellers anytime soon.
Tbh, I'd be more worried about possible market saturation in the non-pro price range that the AX8 aims for. Almost every second band I've seen around here uses a POD. It will possibly require a huge ad campaign to get a fair market share in this segment.
I have the same issue with my car. it's got a top speed of 180kph but I hardly get over 80 in my intra city driving. It can also carry 5 people but usually it's only me in the car! The trunk is hardly ever full either. I don't even turn up the radio full blast.One of my biggest peeves with the AxeFX-2 was I paid $2200 for it, but basically used 4 patches 99% of the time.
I have the same issue with my car. it's got a top speed of 180kph but I hardly get over 80 in my intra city driving. It can also carry 5 people but usually it's only me in the car! The trunk is hardly ever full either. I don't even turn up the radio full blast.
Still, I appreciate & enjoy it & think that it was good value. Even though I don't always use it to it's maximum, it's good to know those capabilities are there when I do need them.
I think tis is awesome and look forward to release, or more unanswered questions which I thought was a brilliant teaser.