Help the Fight Against COVID-19

[Donnie B.]

Actually, I think neither one is the correct computation.

https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate

Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

It's just a snapshot in time.

Update: US Gov promises 100K ventilators in 100 days. That would be the first week of July.

 

[Dr. Dipwad]

Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.​

It's just a snapshot in time.

Hmm. That's ambiguous. Which period of time?

If "a certain period of time" means "the period of time in which those persons were probably infected," then that's my computation.

If "a certain period of time" means "the whole period from the start of the epidemic until the death occurred," then that's the original Johns Hopkins computation.

If "a certain period of time" means...well, no. I can't see any way to construe that definition so that it matches @FractalAudio's computation, which basically added together all the Resolved cases on that day (whether resolved through Death, or resolved through Recovery) and used that as the denominator. Resolved =/= Diagnosed, and according to Britannica, the CFR is computed using Diagnosed as the denominator.

I also note that the Britannica definition includes this statement: "Case fatality rate typically is used as a measure of disease severity and is often used for prognosis (predicting disease course or outcome), where comparatively high rates are indicative of relatively poor outcomes." If we're trying to predict "disease course or outcome" over time, then I think that argues in favor of the computation I proposed.

 

[Donnie B.]

Hmm. That's ambiguous. Which period of time?

Not ambiguous at all.
For example: (snapshot: March 27, 2020 18:27 hours PST)
Period of time being that marker, back to when Hopkins started tracking

Fatality Rate: 27,333/595,953 = 4.586%

 

[offrhodes]

No, it's the number of deaths divided by the number of deaths plus the number of recoveries. That's the very definition of case fatality rate.

As a thought experiment, consider a disease where people die quickly but those that survive will take a very long time to recover (or imagine a "very long" reporting delay for recovery, it's the same).
Asymptotically, any disease will look like 100 % fatality rate, even if the absolute fatality rate (determined after the disease has run its cause) is minimal.
Lies, damn lies and statistics...

 

[plexi59]

So coming back to F@H, I started that last night using Docker, but my machines are mostly idle. At the moment only 3 GPUs are used and no CPUs. Sounds to me like researchers are pissing away a golden opportunity for infinite compute.

 

[creativespiral]

1. Nature has removed over 1000 articles at the behest of the CCP so its integrity is suspect.

2. One of the things the Wuhan Institute of Virology was doing was "forced natural selection". They were repeatedly infecting civets and ferrets with coronaviruses to enhance the virus' virulence as those animals have very similar ACE2 receptors as humans.

So while the virus may not be genetically engineered it's possible that it was "cultivated".

Do you have a source or web link that I can read about Nature removing articles? I was searching around, but could only find an article about preventing Chinese citizens from accessing certain material (internal country censorship / content blocking)... I didn't see anything about removing articles from world access.

Yeah, I get what you're saying about the "shades of grey" between outright engineering and cultivating natural selection... I will concede that it's possible. However, until there's any facts or research studies that leads to that conclusion, I'm gonna lean toward the Nature published study. Again, there is strong precedence for this type of pandemic happening naturally at regular intervals to humanity. History is littered with stories of killer flus and plagues every 50-200 years.

I will temporarily move my certainty down from 95% to 90% that its not man made though, based on your note about cultivating natural selection at Wuhan Institute. Will await future research / studies.

 

[yyz67]

I will temporarily move my certainty down from 95% to 90% that its not man made though, based on your note about cultivating natural selection at Wuhan Institute. Will await future research / studies.

Is that your Bayesian prior or posterior probability?

 

[plexi59]

It's a big controversy over here in France, and the "hither and yon" from the government is starting to nerve the population a very big lot. I'm not a specialist, what are the risks associated to this treatment ? Seems to be effective and efficient, why put lives at stake for what seem to be unscientific personal quarrels ?

Could be that they want the crisis to last for a little longer to pass a bunch of totalitarian bullshit laws. France was getting restless before the crisis. The rubes were defying the ruling class. That could end with a few strokes of a pen if situation gets a little worse than it is now, and stays that way for a bit longer. Cynical? Yes. But only the ruthless make it to the higher levels of governments.

 

[666was999]

When searching for a vaccine in their labatories they have to create copies and mutations, it's part of the way they work, and it can happen that they sometimes have a global killer on their desk and they take care that their monsters don't find a way out of the labatories, and maybe the virus is artificial because something like that just happened in Wuhan. If so, it wasn't on purpose. All we could blame them for, is how slow the world got informed.
On the other side, we all have seen pictures of masked people and quarantines long ago, and no leaders in any country had pulled the right consequences even though they saw pictures of what's coming, right?
So I guess their is noone to blame, every nation has their own dumbish leaders.

 

[yyz67]

So I guess their is noone to blame, every nation has their own dumbish leaders.

There's always 'normalcy bias' and 'group think' in humans, especially if the problem is seen as "over there" (NIOBY). In governments and leaders it is likely much exacerbated due to politics and personal gain, esp. nearing election time.

 

[plexi59]

So I guess their is noone to blame.

Um. No. China is to blame. This is not the first time this shit escapes their wet markets, and not the first time they try to cover it up. They close down the markets, and then open them right back up a few months later when epidemics blow over. This is idiotic IMO. It's not like they don't know that a bunch of the species they sell there are natural reservoir for zoonotic viruses. This should not be allowed to continue, but sadly it will, as will concentration camps and organ harvesting, since the US businesses are entirely dependent on manufacturing capacity there, so they got us by the balls. I don't believe it's currently possible to manufacture electronics at all without being dependent on China at least to some extent. Even if it's "Made in the US", a bunch of parts are still made in China.

 

[yeky83]

Yeah, I get what you're saying about the "shades of grey" between outright engineering and cultivating natural selection... I will concede that it's possible. However, until there's any facts or research studies that leads to that conclusion, I'm gonna lean toward the Nature published study. Again, there is strong precedence for this type of pandemic happening naturally at regular intervals to humanity. History is littered with stories of killer flus and plagues every 50-200 years.

I will temporarily move my certainty down from 95% to 90% that its not man made though, based on your note about cultivating natural selection at Wuhan Institute. Will await future research / studies.

If the virus came about as a result of cultivating natural selection, how would a future research or study go to validate or refute it? It'd just look like natural selection, no? Agreed though, throughout history outbreaks of disease were common and probably just a part of life. And as bad as this is, it could be a lot worse.

 

[yyz67]

Um. No. China is to blame. This is not the first time this shit escapes their wet markets, and not the first time they try to cover it up. They close down the markets, and then open them right back up a few months later when epidemics blow over. This is idiotic IMO.

True. But also: the other govts are to blame for their slow response, even after having known this kind of thing was going to happen eventually. This thing has multiple leaders and govts to 'blame'. And again, do we really think leaders and govts act rationally and not in their own interest?

 

[MisterE]

This is meaningless because there's no universal definition of what constitutes a "serious" case

It's been confirmed: in Belgium a Serious Case is one of a patient in ICU.
I hope that's meaningful enough for you

Edit for those without Google: ICU = Intensive Care Unit

 

[BaronVonGrim]

There's always 'normalcy bias' and 'group think' in humans, especially if the problem is seen as "over there" (NIOBY). In governments and leaders it is likely much exacerbated due to politics and personal gain, esp. nearing election time.

They thought it was dirty people, and uncivilized habits of bat eating Chinese. Now we boast that we are clean... hand washers. I'm a very clean person, and I avoid touching dirty things... disinfect and sterilize my environment.... the arrogance.

Friend of mine who got it in France.. who works from home and only a few times a month travels to Paris to attend management meetings... he did not initially tell his company he had Covid 19.. since he doesn't physically go to work. Once he past the 10 day period... and he felt that it wasn't going to get critical... then he told his company. And next, he will promote that he only showed light symptoms and as few aches.. for only for a few days... when that's not true.... he did this because of a stigmatism associated with people who catch it... that they are dirty. And he said, now that so many people have caught it... peoples stigmatism has decreased... he was one of the earlier cases... and he said people were very judgmental.
Now he and his kids are walking around outside..playing together as a family... and people are looking at him for doing this... that he is a fool.. they dont know he had it

 

[nicolasrivera]

10% to 12% of recovered cases in Wuhan have tested positive again.

 

[yyz67]

10% to 12% of recovered cases in Wuhan have tested positive again.

Source please?

Perhaps they are still low-level infected - were they ever tested to be negative after testing positive the first time?
Could have been false positives to begin with?

 

[GlennO]

10% to 12% of recovered cases in Wuhan have tested positive again.

Please be careful with misleading information like that. First, no, these are not "recovered" cases. They are cases that tested positive a second time after testing negative in-between. In some cases these were asymptomatic the first time or are now asymptomatic. There's a huge difference between that and your implication that one can get sick again. Second, it's almost impossible that someone who was sick a few weeks ago could get sick again so quickly. If that was so, they never would have recovered in the first place.

 

[plexi59]

It's been confirmed: in Belgium a Serious Case is one of a patient in ICU.
I hope that's meaningful enough for you

Not even sure of what "in ICU" means either. I'd settle for "patient cannot survive without mechanical, forced ventilation", for the definition of a "serious" case. Ventilators (and the requirement of being mechanically ventilated) seems to be one of the main factors in whether the patient will live or die.

 

[Toopy14]

I have watched several of Governor Cuomo's press briefings, very impressive indeed. No BS, well informed and well spoken. The man knows how to take charge. I just wish he would get all the support he needs, as well as all the other leaders of the other states.

Here in Ontario, the Premier, Doug Ford, is a conservative. Another politician born with a silver spoon in his <insert orifice>, but I have to give him a lot of credit. He holds a press briefing everyday, surrounded by experts that he trusts and more importantly, he listens to! He is well spoken, well informed, stern, yet compassionate. He has absolutely taken charge of the situation in Ontario and has backed it up with every option he has in his power. He has constantly said he will spare no expense for the health and well being of every resident of Ontario. He has formed alliances with manufacturer's and they are all stepping up to the plate to produce ventilators, sanitizers and P.P.E. He's increasing testing and doing many other things to help us get through this.

Yesterday a 'boutique grocery store' in Toronto, was caught red-handed by someone on social media, selling 1 container of Lysol wipes for $29.99 (Costco sells 6 containers for the same price). The premier called them out by name, on live television and told them he is coming after them and every other price gouging store in Ontario. He was pissed and rightly so. As a resident watching this, it's reassuring to watch someone take charge and lead, not just by word, but by actions!

I will always give credit where credit is due and this Premier and Governor Cuomo, deserve a lot of credit right now!

Yes, I realize it's still early in the game and I am cautiously optimistic, but this is the result of leaders trusting and listening to the experts and making their decisions based on recommendations of those experts. Dr. Tam is another well spoken and well informed professional and leader, who has taken charge and has the ear of the Prime Minister. Dr. David Williams, the Chief Medical Officer of Health, for Ontario, is doing the same thing for the province of Ontario and he also has the complete trust of the Premier.

I'm not big into politics, but again, I have to give credit where credit is due and that's to the Prime Minister and Premier for putting these two in charge. I just wish, for the sake of the American people and all the wonderful people I know, living in the U.S.A., that Dr. Fauci was given the respect he deserves.


"12:00 p.m. ‘We are seeing encouraging signs’

Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer, offered Canadians encouraging news at the federal minister’s update.

While over 5,153 Canadians are unwell, only 7 per cent have been hospitalized, 3 per cent are critically ill and 1 per cent of cases are fatal.

Tam confirmed there is some ‘cautious optimism’ coming out of British Columbia, with a slight flattening of the curve and reduced growth of cases. The country will look closely at the province's cases and curve to confirm what method of distancing is most effective in coming weeks.

The optimism coming out of British Columbia doesn’t mean that social distancing should come to an end.

“This should spur us to keep up with our new habit of social distancing. We need to stay the course,” Tam urged.

The important thing is to stay in your bubble and not burst someone else’s by getting within 2-metres of distance of them.

Deputy Chief Public Health Officer Howard Njoo reiterated Tam’s message when asked about how long social distancing will continue across the country.

‘We can’t predict what will happen in the future but there have been encouraging signs. The number of cases is decreasing in British Columbia, or even in Canada. It's important we stay the course and we not give up.'”

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-covid19-canada-latest-updates-190048955.html