Help the Fight Against COVID-19

[Toopy14]

I was refering to friends or family (unless you are friends with the guy in the video). People you know personally.

Oh, no. Thankfully, so far nobody I personally know, Still thought it was a good description of the day-by-day progression of the virus.

 

[FractalAudio]

I've been tracking growth for a while now and the moving average of the base of the exponent is around 1.2. That means the number of cases increases by a factor of four every seven days, a factor of 14 every two weeks and a factor of 240 each month.

I expect Italy to have around 20K dead by the end of the month.

The real problem will be reinfection. China has all but eradicated the disease. However all it takes is one person to enter the country with it and it will start all over again.

 

[crdark]

Germany closed schools and kindergartens today.

Not everywhere though. But some universities were closed too ... we are also preparing for a total shutdown next week, inofficially.

 

[sheky]

What are people here with kids doing? I've assigned each kid their own hand towel, toothpaste and rinsing cup, have them wash hands often and lysol-wipe the place a few times a day. I'm not sure what to do about playdates or the kid across the street coming over and stuff like that.

 

[sheky]

I've been tracking growth for a while now and the moving average of the base of the exponent is around 1.2. That means the number of cases increases by a factor of four every seven days, a factor of 14 every two weeks and a factor of 240 each month.

I expect Italy to have around 20K dead by the end of the month.

The real problem will be reinfection. China has all but eradicated the disease. However all it takes is one person to enter the country with it and it will start all over again.

You don't think the lockdown will start having any effect on that projection?

 

[creativespiral]

Ah. GPU. I can't use the GPU on the Mac to fold faster, unfortunately. I might enlist the PCs in the house this weekend.

If we all just engaged a Covid-19 Block our IIIs on this, we could have a cure by end of day.



Although, probably wouldn't be able to jam out my dual amp ambient preset in quarantine, so......

 

[FractalAudio]

You don't think the lockdown will start having any effect on that projection?

Hopefully. The problem is that the reported number of cases lags the actual number of cases by about 14 days. It works like this:
1. Person gets infected on Day 1.
2. Person shows symptoms on Day 6.
3. Symptoms worsen to the point of requiring a trip to the doctor on Day 10. Test is administered.
4. Test takes 2-3 days for results. Infection confirmed on Day 13.
5. Statistics updated on Day 14.

Therefore the number of infections is two weeks ahead of the number of cases. Given the growth rate in Italy of 1.21 there will be 15 times as many cases and deaths by the end of the month. There are currently 1266 deaths so there will be 19K by the end of the month.

Once mitigation is initiated the curve goes from exponential to linear. Then it flattens and then it decreases.

 

[Fro]

Maybe someone addressed this already. But why did this site yesterday morning say we had 1300+ cases in the US, and then 1600+ cases last night, and today it says 1200+ cases. Do real numbers just not exist? (no need to answer that)

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

[creativespiral]

You don't think the lockdown will start having any effect on that projection?

I think the aggressive Italy lockdown and quarantine actions will show significant improvements in their numbers... starting with a reduction in number of new cases over the next few days. The death curve will probably be a bit further behind that, but within a couple weeks Italy's death curve should ease. The improvements there may not be as rapid as was the case in China though, just because China's actions were even more aggressive and draconian.

 

[NeoSound]

According to the John Hopkins site Kentucky only has 10 cases. I think we're being lied to and the number of cases is orders of magnitude higher than what's being reported.

there's definitely a lot of misinformation. I thought the media was milking it for maximum drama, but if the military are guarding hospitals and only accepting patients with the virus... that sounds much more serious than I expected?

 

[phillyred79]

I've been tracking growth for a while now and the moving average of the base of the exponent is around 1.2. That means the number of cases increases by a factor of four every seven days, a factor of 14 every two weeks and a factor of 240 each month.

I expect Italy to have around 20K dead by the end of the month.

Question- are those numbers accurate only if nothing is done to impede the spread?

 

[creativespiral]

Maybe someone addressed this already. But why did this site yesterday morning say we had 1300+ cases in the US, and then 1600+ cases last night, and today it says 1200+ cases. Do real numbers just not exist? (no need to answer that)

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Yeah, I've noticed this site (arcgis) has had periods where certain categories of numbers get zeroed out for some reason for a few hours, but then they are back again hours later... I bet if you check back in a few hours, the numbers will be correct again. The Worldometers site seems to have more stable data, plus some better drill-down information if you click through various links.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Also, good to remember that countries are in different time zones / different days, and reporting of numbers from certain countries may have delays.

 

[xarkon]

(And no one can shit talk Shatner. Dude is unassailable in my eyes! DENNY CRANE!)

It's the mad cow.

 

[sheky]

Hopefully. The problem is that the reported number of cases lags the actual number of cases by about 14 days. It works like this:
1. Person gets infected on Day 1.
2. Person shows symptoms on Day 6.
3. Symptoms worsen to the point of requiring a trip to the doctor on Day 10. Test is administered.
4. Test takes 2-3 days for results. Infection confirmed on Day 13.
5. Statistics updated on Day 14.

Therefore the number of infections is two weeks ahead of the number of cases. Given the growth rate in Italy of 1.21 there will be 15 times as many cases and deaths by the end of the month. There are currently 1266 deaths so there will be 19K by the end of the month.

Once mitigation is initiated the curve goes from exponential to linear. Then it flattens and then it decreases.

But your point remains, the only way to maintain the curve reversal is through extraordinary and extraordinarily expensive measures. One hell of a waiting game.

 

[NeoSound]

I've been tracking growth for a while now and the moving average of the base of the exponent is around 1.2. That means the number of cases increases by a factor of four every seven days, a factor of 14 every two weeks and a factor of 240 each month.

I expect Italy to have around 20K dead by the end of the month.

The real problem will be reinfection. China has all but eradicated the disease. However all it takes is one person to enter the country with it and it will start all over again.

If true, I've read that you don't build resistance and being infected the second time would be more deadly than the first.

 

[FractalAudio]

If true, I've read that you don't build resistance and being infected the second time would be more deadly than the first.

I hope it's not true because if it is then that's an apocalypse scenario. Would wipe out probably 90% of humanity. Only those with some genetic immunity would survive.

I doubt that's true though. That would be a first in infectious diseases. I believe those few cases that report reinfection were likely people that hadn't fully recovered and the test results were a false negative.

 

[yeky83]

Question- are those numbers accurate only if nothing is done to impede the spread?

I think it’d be true for Italy since they only recently impeded the spread, and the spread numbers are still behind as he explained.

 

[levipeto]

250 died in Italy, today.

 

[Donnie B.]

it's all similar to the story if Noah's Arc...
Noah says... it's going to rain, I'm building a boat....build a boat.
And they say... sounds like fake news

Then when its flooding... people are screaming... let me on the boat.... and he doesn't let them on

 

[yyz67]

2,068 confirmed in US (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/countries-where-coronavirus-has-spread/)

With testing finally rolling out the confirmed number will likely be 5-10K in a week or less. That isn't actual cases but confirmed.