Help the Fight Against COVID-19

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I am struggling to see the reality in these disaster death rate numbers but math was never my thing. Here's where I get my info: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

If you look at South Korea for instance, there are 6,543 total cases. 43 deaths and 52 serious or critical. So even if all the serious/critical patients die, that's under a 1.5% death rate. And that's not accounting for the the fact that there might be a lot (or even a vast majority) of cases that aren't diagnosed b/c they weren't serious enough.

Also, so far the death rate on diamond princess is around 1% on a cruise which is probably weighted towards older people. Won't we have an accurate death rate once those cases all resolve?
 
I thought all we had to do was:


wash-your-hands.jpg
Is that a sac in between your hands? lol
 
I am struggling to see the reality in these disaster death rate numbers but math was never my thing. Here's where I get my info: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

If you look at South Korea for instance, there are 6,543 total cases. 43 deaths and 52 serious or critical. So even if all the serious/critical patients die, that's under a 1.5% death rate. And that's not accounting for the the fact that there might be a lot (or even a vast majority) of cases that aren't diagnosed b/c they weren't serious enough.

Also, so far the death rate on diamond princess is around 1% on a cruise which is probably weighted towards older people. Won't we have an accurate death rate once those cases all resolve?
One issue is that it’s still spreading. Last highest R0 I saw was 7. 1 person spreads it to 7 others on average. That’s insane. 1.5% of 6543 may be “only” 95 people (using your numbers, i didn’t check them). But 1.5% of many more people are many more deaths. It spreads exponentially. They’re saying it’s already mutated with a more aggressive version happening. It spreads without showing symptoms.

This data just shows us we should stop traveling and minimize the chance of catching it. It needs to stop spreading before it will go away. I don’t care if I don’t die, I just don’t want to catch it at all! As the hospitals fill up with more people who have it, available machines and doctors to help treat it will be reduced, leading to more deaths from lack of available care.

There’s no need to panic, but we need to know what’s happening and adjust to reduce the spread. That freaking R0 needs to come way down!
 
I am struggling to see the reality in these disaster death rate numbers but math was never my thing. Here's where I get my info: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

If you look at South Korea for instance, there are 6,543 total cases. 43 deaths and 52 serious or critical. So even if all the serious/critical patients die, that's under a 1.5% death rate. And that's not accounting for the the fact that there might be a lot (or even a vast majority) of cases that aren't diagnosed b/c they weren't serious enough.

Also, so far the death rate on diamond princess is around 1% on a cruise which is probably weighted towards older people. Won't we have an accurate death rate once those cases all resolve?
The point that was made is that the # of deaths and illnesses trail the # of cases by 2 weeks, so that percentage isn't representative of the severity of the virus.
 
One issue is that it’s still spreading. Last highest R0 I saw was 7. 1 person spreads it to 7 others on average. That’s insane. 1.5% of 6543 may be “only” 95 people (using your numbers, i didn’t check them). But 1.5% of many more people are many more deaths. It spreads exponentially. They’re saying it’s already mutated with a more aggressive version happening. It spreads without showing symptoms.

This data just shows us we should stop traveling and minimize the chance of catching it. It needs to stop spreading before it will go away. I don’t care if I don’t die, I just don’t want to catch it at all! As the hospitals fill up with more people who have it, available machines and doctors to help treat it will be reduced, leading to more deaths from lack of available care.

There’s no need to panic, but we need to know what’s happening and adjust to reduce the spread. That freaking R0 needs to come way down!
The article I read has the most virulent strain as the earlier strain and the mutated strain as less virulent. From the interviews and articles I've read with experts in ID, this does not seem to be virus that is quickly mutating which I really hope is true. They also say it's less catchy than the flu, but anecdotally It's hard to believe.

When I say the death rate is "only" 1.5%, I do not mean to minimize the death of others, but point out that the numbers out there (if you believe them) do not seem to warrant 3% or 12% or 25% death rate figures. I think it's important to be sensitive when discussing the situation, but it's also important not to handcuff someone trying to make a point with the implications that they don't care about other people dying. So if I point out everyone in Italy who dies was over 60 and most have health conditions, it doesn't mean I don't care about old people in Italy with pacemakers. Plus, if you've got 5 kids running around at home, and have been anxiety-ridden for a month, it's good to know that so far, they don't appear to be at risk.
 
The article I read has the most virulent strain as the earlier strain and the mutated strain as less virulent. From the interviews and articles I've read with experts in ID, this does not seem to be virus that is quickly mutating which I really hope is true. They also say it's less catchy than the flu, but anecdotally It's hard to believe.

When I say the death rate is "only" 1.5%, I do not mean to minimize the death of others, but point out that the numbers out there (if you believe them) do not seem to warrant 3% or 12% or 25% death rate figures. I think it's important to be sensitive when discussing the situation, but it's also important not to handcuff someone trying to make a point with the implications that they don't care about other people dying. So if I point out everyone in Italy who dies was over 60 and most have health conditions, it doesn't mean I don't care about old people in Italy with pacemakers. Plus, if you've got 5 kids running around at home, and have been anxiety-ridden for a month, it's good to know that so far, they don't appear to be at risk.
sure.

the issue is we don't have correct and full data. it seems that many agencies are holding back from sharing the real numbers to "calm the people." but that just leads to inaccurate information. then suddenly it grows exponentially - which it is doing - and THAT causes panic.

we just need accurate data. consider that the death rate was actually 25%. how would the public react then? how would agencies react? people would hunker down, businesses would close, economy would go down for a bit - but people would be safe and the disease would stop spreading. that should be the goal here.

stop things now while we're mostly healthy, rather than being forced to stop when many are getting sick.
 
sure.

the issue is we don't have correct and full data. it seems that many agencies are holding back from sharing the real numbers to "calm the people." but that just leads to inaccurate information. then suddenly it grows exponentially - which it is doing - and THAT causes panic.

we just need accurate data. consider that the death rate was actually 25%. how would the public react then? how would agencies react? people would hunker down, businesses would close, economy would go down for a bit - but people would be safe and the disease would stop spreading. that should be the goal here.

stop things now while we're mostly healthy, rather than being forced to stop when many are getting sick.
What is the evidence that agencies are holding back from sharing the data?
 
What is the evidence that agencies are holding back from sharing the data?
comparing regions that are sharing data and their percentages to regions that have much, much lower numbers which don't make sense. i believe Iran was not sharing data as freely as they could. saying everything was fine while a member of the government was going on live tv, coughing and hacking, later finding out he had it.

i've been told by trusted friends in the medical field they were initially told to report any suspected COVID case as "the regular flu" as to not make people panic. i've read similar things for other regions.

in today's age it's hard to know what you can trust. but if you start seeing patterns or numbers not making sense, you can make smart judgments about what's really going on.

regardless, numbers show that the number of infected is still growing. regardless of the death rate, if it's still growing, it's not been contained yet. this could point to data being held, or data not being collected correctly. either thing is not good.
 
Gotta say, though, so far the fatality numbers are extremely underwhelming. In any given year seasonal flu kills 30-50K people a month worldwide, depending on the strain. Coronavirus fatalities in 2 months are less than 3.5K people. Lame.
 
Gotta say, though, so far the fatality numbers are extremely underwhelming. In any given year seasonal flu kills 30-50K people a month worldwide, depending on the strain. Coronavirus fatalities in 2 months are less than 3.5K people. Lame.
we have complete data for the seasonal flu and it's been ongoing for a long time. COVID is new and currently growing at exponential rates in many places, and the disease takes a while to appear in those who have it. the deaths are thankfully lower, but that doesn't mean this is the sustained rate.
 
comparing regions that are sharing data and their percentages to regions that have much, much lower numbers which don't make sense. i believe Iran was not sharing data as freely as they could. saying everything was fine while a member of the government was going on live tv, coughing and hacking, later finding out he had it.

i've been told by trusted friends in the medical field they were initially told to report any suspected COVID case as "the regular flu" as to not make people panic. i've read similar things for other regions.

in today's age it's hard to know what you can trust. but if you start seeing patterns or numbers not making sense, you can make smart judgments about what's really going on.

regardless, numbers show that the number of infected is still growing. regardless of the death rate, if it's still growing, it's not been contained yet. this could point to data being held, or data not being collected correctly. either thing is not good.

Soooo... lying to people happens in your country.
Here, there are no such instructions...and practice (for covid).

But you can imagine why I say you must take all numbers with some »distance »...because you have to have faith in numbers, in studies, in pharmaceutical industry, in searchers...
 
Medicine is literally math.
It's nothing of the sort. Shit, they don't even know the mechanism of action of most existing drugs, and diagnosis for anything off the beaten path is just guessing most of the time. Don't get me started on dietology and psychology / psychiatry either. People practicing (and charging a lot of money!) in those fields have no fucking clue whatsoever. Both my wife and I have been misdiagnosed with some severe, incurable shit, which threw us for a loop before we figured out that an MRI can, in fact, result in a complete mis-diagnosis. My wife in particular was told she has like 5 years until she'll need a wheelchair due to a spinal cord abnormality. As you can imagine we took the news pretty hard. Yet in a repeat MRI 2 years later another doctor did not see this (incurable!) "abnormality".

Stop treating doctors as these infallible oracles that know WTF they're doing 100% of the time. Just because they paid $300K for their diploma and studied for a decade to get it doesn't mean they're infallible. At best, they know what they're doing most of the time. At worst, they can cause harm: medical errors are the third most prevalent cause of death in the US, right after heart disease and cancer.

That's not to say you should take your medical advice from a forum or, god forbid, Facebook. Doctor is still your best option 100% of the time, medical error fatality rate notwithstanding. It's just to say that it's not as precise a science as people make it out to be.
 
Is there a definitive test for it that's available from, say, your local HMO?

Is there any treatment that's very effective?

Avoiding getting it doesn't seem super realistic, especially for those of us commuting on public transit.

I want to avoid doctors rooms etc. To avoid catching but also lessen their burden. I bought a pulse oxymeter cheap on ebay so i can check my blood oxygen saturation levels at home. The flu doesnt affect saturation levels but covid -19 can. SpO2 goes below 94% and i go to doctor for lung MRI.
 
I want to avoid doctors rooms etc. To avoid catching but also lessen their burden. I bought a pulse oxymeter cheap on ebay so i can check my blood oxygen saturation levels at home. The flu doesnt affect saturation levels but covid -19 can. SpO2 goes below 94% and i go to doctor for lung MRI.

Was it made in China?
 
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