Help the Fight Against COVID-19

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I think its also important to keep in mind that most of the deaths are older people that had health issues/compromised immune systems prior.



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iaresee said:
Best data we have right now is South Korea and mortality rate for them has been around 0.03-0.06%. The JH data above is in line with that. Still very bad. And the WHO put their global infection rate estimate at 40-70% of the population. Also bad. If California has 40MM people and you assume a 40% infection rate that means in CA alone there’ll be some 48,000 4800 deaths due to this. That’s a big number. :|

South Korea’s response has been hyper-vigilant. Maybe that helped? Gets tricky to correlate.

Controlling the infection rate is the best we can do right now. It’s still pretty low. Sub-2% in South Korea, Italy. Need to do that here. Encouraging people to go to work and push through it is unhelpful IMHO.

I don’t feel like the work from home edicts have been over reacting and I’m annoyed my kid’s school board hasn’t done the same. They're always the most likely vector into our house.
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You can't divide deaths by number of cases because most of the cases are new due to exponential growth and it takes 2-3 weeks to kill you.

If we use resolved cases we get 124 deaths divided by (124 deaths plus 913 recovered) = 11.9% fatality rate.

IMO 3.4% is a low estimate. The case fatality rate is asymptotically approaching about 4-5%. Approximately 50% of the population will contract this disease. At least 4% will die. 144 million deaths.
 
FractalAudio said:
You can't divide deaths by number of cases because most of the cases are new due to exponential growth and it takes 2-3 weeks to kill you.

If we use resolved cases we get 124 deaths divided by (124 deaths plus 913 recovered) = 11.9% fatality rate.

IMO 3.4% is a low estimate. The case fatality rate is asymptotically approaching about 4-5%. Approximately 50% of the population will contract this disease. At least 4% will die. 144 million deaths.
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That’s a very big number. :(
 
The media is trying to downplay things and it's almost comical watching them, if it wasn't so sad. There was a Harvard epidemiologist on the news the other day and he was saying pretty much the same thing I'm saying and the talking head interviewing him kept trying to contradict him. You could see the fear in the Harvard guy's eyes and the talking head saying stupid stuff like "well, we just really don't know, do we?". To which he would calmly reply "this is an extremely virulent and deadly disease".
 
FractalAudio said:
You can't divide deaths by number of cases because most of the cases are new due to exponential growth and it takes 2-3 weeks to kill you.

If we use resolved cases we get 124 deaths divided by (124 deaths plus 913 recovered) = 11.9% fatality rate.

IMO 3.4% is a low estimate. The case fatality rate is asymptotically approaching about 4-5%. Approximately 50% of the population will contract this disease. At least 4% will die. 144 million deaths.
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From https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/...1u5r9Q0_0t4#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The fatality rate of cases where we know the ending is 3.5/59, about 6%


The strange thing is i can see no usa cases in these stats
 
The major factor in the error in the numbers is reporting, which is part of the reason why China in particular has been a complete pain in the ass for decades with regard to epidemiology & global health.
 
FractalAudio said:
The media is trying to downplay things and it's almost comical watching them, if it wasn't so sad. There was a Harvard epidemiologist on the news the other day and he was saying pretty much the same thing I'm saying and the talking head interviewing him kept trying to contradict him. You could see the fear in the Harvard guy's eyes and the talking head saying stupid stuff like "well, we just really don't know, do we?". To which he would calmly reply "this is an extremely virulent and deadly disease".
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They have no fkn clue what they’re talking about and they’ve got no credibility for independent objectivity here in good ole 2020.

Lotta roosters coming home to roost all at once...
 
USMC_Trev said:
The major factor in the error in the numbers is reporting, which is part of the reason why China in particular has been a complete pain in the ass for decades with regard to epidemiology & global health.
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Yup. My fear is that they've been systematically underreporting the fatalities. If the S. Korea and Iran numbers are any indication the CFR is far higher than 6%. Maybe twice that, or more.

My earlier post was wrong as I used the wrong data. I was using the Iran data. Unfortunately it's even WORSE for S. Korea. Using their numbers it's 24%!!! Using the Italy numbers it's 26%. I don't particularly trust Iran's numbers either. There are reports of mass graves there which doesn't jibe with 124 deaths.

So the CFR could be as high as 25% which would mean about a billion deaths.

It was only a matter of time before nature corrected this problem. We are massively overpopulated and Mother Nature ALWAYS corrects an imbalance.

Even scarier is that there is a high likelihood that this was man-made and escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology which just so happens to be near the market where China is saying the outbreak started. A woman scientist there has been experimenting with genetically modifying the coronavirus despite her colleagues in other countries telling her she's playing with fire. This is a biohazard level 4 lab which has had containment breaches before.
 
Jimmytwotimes said:
Meaning "its important to keep mind" that if you are a healthy person between 10 and 60, your chances of death from it are slim - that's all.
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Still not following. The problem is total number of people dying, not the age range or the fitness of people dying. Yes, I may not be likely to die, but I have plenty of loved ones who are at greater risk. And of course, my concern for all humans in general is ever present.
 
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Can't confirm cases if you don't test anyone. I don't think they've tested 100 in my city, so of course they can say "no cases." It won't be till the hospitals start filling up that anyone acknowledges anything.

I honestly really hope it all blows over as a non-event. It's really hard to get a good read on the whole thing because of how much bias, nationalism, etc there is in the reporting. Between people censoring information, people blowing it up online, who the hell knows. I think preparing for the worst is acceptable though. I have supplies to ride it out a couple of months at home if it comes to that. Hell, more time to play would be great. I worry about my parents though, and they're on the other side of the country.
 
spagthorpe said:
It's really hard to get a good read on the whole thing because of how much bias, nationalism, etc there is in the reporting. Between people censoring information, people blowing it up online, who the hell knows.
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The dream of the internet bringing us together via the sharing of information has been dwarfed by those with an agenda using this technology to spread misinformation to the ill informed. We are almost back to the point where the supposedly one literate person in the village reads to the others to help them remain informed.
 
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FractalAudio said:
Yup. My fear is that they've been systematically underreporting the fatalities. If the S. Korea and Iran numbers are any indication the CFR is far higher than 6%. Maybe twice that, or more.

My earlier post was wrong as I used the wrong data. I was using the Iran data. Unfortunately it's even WORSE for S. Korea. Using their numbers it's 24%!!! Using the Italy numbers it's 26%. I don't particularly trust Iran's numbers either. There are reports of mass graves there which doesn't jibe with 124 deaths.

So the CFR could be as high as 25% which would mean about a billion deaths.

It was only a matter of time before nature corrected this problem. We are massively overpopulated and Mother Nature ALWAYS corrects an imbalance.

Even scarier is that there is a high likelihood that this was man-made and escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology which just so happens to be near the market where China is saying the outbreak started. A woman scientist there has been experimenting with genetically modifying the coronavirus despite her colleagues in other countries telling her she's playing with fire. This is a biohazard level 4 lab which has had containment breaches before.
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I was typing out that you're using CFR wrongly, but I paused and see what you mean now by exponential growth and the time it takes till death. Comparing developing Coronavirus numbers to the flu's static numbers isn't appropriate at all. Doh, wish that came intuitively for me. Well, that's certainly very alarming, thanks for the insight.
 
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Censorship, bots, purposeful misinformation, ignorant misinformation, it's really made a lot of news about a lot of things completely worthless. Given that at least in the US (don't know about the rest of the world), there are virtually no critical thinking skills being taught. It really isn't too far from that village reader. Only now, can you even trust him....presumably paid by the king...
 
Well, I work in a level 2 regional trauma center. It's just a matter of time before it arrives here and we see our first case come into the ER.
 
FractalAudio said:
You can't divide deaths by number of cases because most of the cases are new due to exponential growth and it takes 2-3 weeks to kill you.

If we use resolved cases we get 124 deaths divided by (124 deaths plus 913 recovered) = 11.9% fatality rate.

IMO 3.4% is a low estimate. The case fatality rate is asymptotically approaching about 4-5%. Approximately 50% of the population will contract this disease. At least 4% will die. 144 million deaths.
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Medecine is not maths, you have to take numbers with a bit of distance. Except if you have faith...

I don’t think you can approach it « the engineer way ».
I use to say that, in medecine, the more you know, the more you know you don’t know.

:)
 
OldSnail said:
Medecine is not maths, you have to take numbers with a bit of distance. Except if you have faith...

I don’t think you can approach it « the engineer way ».
I use to say that, in medecine, the more you know, the more you know you don’t know.

:)
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Medicine is literally math.
 
In a bit of synchronicity, I watched a movie called 'Contagion' a few weeks ago.

It has frightening similarities to what's happening now (but in the compressed Movie timeline way.)
 
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