Help the Fight Against COVID-19

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I hope it's not true because if it is then that's an apocalypse scenario. Would wipe out probably 90% of humanity. Only those with some genetic immunity would survive.

I doubt that's true though. That would be a first in infectious diseases. I believe those few cases that report reinfection were likely people that hadn't fully recovered and the test results were a false negative.
Not a doctor but I’d agree. This virus falls into the Coronavirus family, which is a known family of viruses. Also, I’m not sure how serology would come into play (which it is in play) if we did not develop antibodies.
 
If true, I've read that you don't build resistance and being infected the second time would be more deadly than the first.
The assumption is you build immunity after infection. There have been several curious cases of reinfection which they attribute to faulty testing. The only way to prove someone can be reinfected is to sequence the virus from both infections, compare the 2 infections and pray they are the same. If not, it would probably render any vaccine useless. But hopefully they could develop an effective anti-viral treatment if that was to happen.
 
Hopefully. The problem is that the reported number of cases lags the actual number of cases by about 14 days. It works like this:
1. Person gets infected on Day 1.
2. Person shows symptoms on Day 6.
3. Symptoms worsen to the point of requiring a trip to the doctor on Day 10. Test is administered.
4. Test takes 2-3 days for results. Infection confirmed on Day 13.
5. Statistics updated on Day 14.

Therefore the number of infections is two weeks ahead of the number of cases. Given the growth rate in Italy of 1.21 there will be 15 times as many cases and deaths by the end of the month. There are currently 1266 deaths so there will be 19K by the end of the month.

Once mitigation is initiated the curve goes from exponential to linear. Then it flattens and then it decreases.

Hopefully in a week or so we should start to see the effects on the curve of the restrictive measures adopted a few days ago (more than a week ago in Lombardia), so the deaths at the end of the month should be less.. hopefully

PS: And also, an hospital in Naples has been testing a drug usually used for arthritis which seems to be effective in reducing some complications of the infection, it inhibits the over-production of cytokines in response to the infection which seems to be one of the major cause of permanent lung damage in some subjects
 
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Reading some quotes of the current government "announcement" - I'm really not liking the political turn this whole thing is taking - placing blame elsewhere etc. Its really really sad to turn a pandemic into a political bargaining chip.
 
The toilet paper isle at my local Walmart:

248A7C1B-39E8-413F-B75A-C71880A33AAA.jpeg

Anybody have some toilet paper they could spare? I have a bunch of D’Addario NYXL1046 sets I’m willing to trade.
 
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I stocked up, but I don't really understand the dynamics of these shortages. Why toiled paper and not dish-soap or cereal? Why is everyone hoarding bottled water? How is the virus going on interfere with the operation of my faucet?
 
I've been tracking growth for a while now and the moving average of the base of the exponent is around 1.2. That means the number of cases increases by a factor of four every seven days, a factor of 14 every two weeks and a factor of 240 each month.

I expect Italy to have around 20K dead by the end of the month.

The real problem will be reinfection. China has all but eradicated the disease. However all it takes is one person to enter the country with it and it will start all over again.
Seems to be about 1.3 here in France.
And authorities start to say France is just taking the same path Italy did, just about 8 days later...
Pretty frightening
 
Reading some quotes of the current government "announcement" - I'm really not liking the political turn this whole thing is taking - placing blame elsewhere etc. Its really really sad to turn a pandemic into a political bargaining chip.

Election year! I've been doing my best to not get political... but it sure does seem the control of testing/flow of information has been to appear like they weren't caught with their pants down in regards to this.
 
Seems people are pretty worried about being able to shit :laughing:

What sucks is that I’ve been on an antibiotic for a sinus infection that has been giving me diarrhea.

But luckily, I’m one of those “preppers” that people criticize. I’ve got enough food, water, and supplies to last me well over a year.
 
What sucks is that I’ve been on an antibiotic for a sinus infection that has been giving me diarrhea.

But luckily, I’m one of those “preppers” that people criticize. I’ve got enough food, water, and supplies to last me well over a year.
Ouch! I hope you have a bidet at least :sweatsmile:
 
Seems to be about 1.3 here in France.
And authorities start to say France is just taking the same path Italy did, just about 8 days later...
Pretty frightening

Yes, but we have 8 more days to prepare for what's coming. It's not much, but it's something.
 
How is the virus going on interfere with the operation of my faucet?

If this continues to spread at its current rate within a few days millions of people are going to be infected.
At some point municipal utilities (like pumping stations) can be impacted with manpower issues.
I predict the next step is mobilizing the military machine. I don't think any countries are thinking about invading
their neighbors right now so the resources can be reallocated for the immediate future.
All local National Guards should be getting the call too.

Let's just hope they have protecting caregivers down pat by now. Otherwise.......
 
I stocked up, but I don't really understand the dynamics of these shortages. Why toiled paper and not dish-soap or cereal? Why is everyone hoarding bottled water? How is the virus going on interfere with the operation of my faucet?
Dish washer soap is very scarce here.
 
The assumption is you build immunity after infection. There have been several curious cases of reinfection which they attribute to faulty testing. The only way to prove someone can be reinfected is to sequence the virus from both infections, compare the 2 infections and pray they are the same. If not, it would probably render any vaccine useless. But hopefully they could develop an effective anti-viral treatment if that was to happen.
Wouldn’t you pray that the infections are NOT the same? If they were the same, that means there is no adaptive immunity and vaccines are useless
 
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