Going solar

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bammbamm

Experienced
I got this offer from Sunrun to install solar panels. After the tax credits, probably costs $11k. I don't use that much electricity right now but I live in SoCal so usage probably will increase since it feels like summer gets hotter every year. I was wondering what you guys thoughts are on this. Thanks!
 
A waste of money if you ask me. Maybe not for you personally, as you might make it back in a reduced electricity bill in the long run. So if that is your aim, go for it. But to combat global warming its a waste of money. Just like wind energy. It's my opinion that if you want to fight global warming nuclear or fusion is the most cost effective option. As planting a lot of real estate full of windmills and solar panels, which have to be recycled and replaced every 20 years, is not very cost effective compared to having one nuclear or fusion power plant. Of course the latter still has to be made to work. But if the US could build a nuclear weapon in 4 years from theory to having a nuclear bomb by bringing together a lot of clever boffins and giving them unlimited budgets, why can't we do the same for nuclear fusion? And once we have nuclear fusion the solar system and beyond is open to us as we can finally colonize it.
 
Thanks for the input. Yeah I'm looking more at the savings factor than anything else. I also think that perhaps Thorium reactors will be one huge key to energy independence in the future.
 
I wonder how long it would take to pay off a wind turbine? The Virginia Politicians are trying to sell us all on offshore Wind Turbines... I keep asking them why we don't start building Sailing Ships instead of nuclear powered Aircraft Carriers and Submarines? They don't get it...
 
bammbamm said:
I got this offer from Sunrun to install solar panels. After the tax credits, probably costs $11k. I don't use that much electricity right now but I live in SoCal so usage probably will increase since it feels like summer gets hotter every year. I was wondering what you guys thoughts are on this. Thanks!
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There is no one answer. You have to do the numbers for your particular situation, taking into account all the issues that are specific to you: house orientation, roof configuration, local utility rates, your electricity usage, local sunshine, how long you plan to stay in the house, your local utility's policy for putting power back into the grid, whether you have an electric car, etc. Many providers will lease you the equipment if you want to reduce your up front costs. For a lot of people, it's a good investment. For others, not so much.
 
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Sunrun offers a metered version. We put in a 13,000 kwh system last year - no out of pocket cost.

I pay $250 a month which overall works out to about what I was paying for electrical if split across the full year, plus accounting for about 10% additional generation capacity above what we typically use. I will get a credit at the end of the year.

This rate is permanent (25 years). They own the equipment and they are required to maintain it at expected energy generation levels.

The rates PG&E rates in California keep increasing and if nothing else this locks my rate as I'm not paying them unless there's an underage in production at the end of the year.
 
FractalAudio said:
I looked into solar and the economics of it just didn't work. It would've taken 30 years to pay off the system by which time the panels would need replacing.
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That's crazy. They estimated 11 years payback time frame for me.

GlennO said:
There is no one answer. You have to do the numbers for your particular situation, taking into account all the issues that are specific to you: house orientation, roof configuration, local utility rates, your electricity usage, local sunshine, how long you plan to stay in the house, your local utility's policy for putting power back into the grid, whether you have an electric car, etc. Many providers will lease you the equipment if you want to reduce your up front costs. For a lot of people, it's a good investment. For others, not so much.
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I have pretty good house orientation with lots of sunshine being in Southern California. Currently I pay $0.113 per kWh. I plan on getting an electric car sometime in the future.
 
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There is some story now about NASA scientists thinking the sun is entering a solar minimum. Fwiw, I believe that story came up about 12 years ago too, so I wouldn't hold my breath for it or anything, but yeah, I do believe that ppl wanting to reduce carbon emissions / extinction rebellion are way too optimistic about worldwide solar energy at the best of times. It just isn't enough, even if there is no solar minimum.
 
JJunkie said:
There is some story now about NASA scientists thinking the sun is entering a solar minimum. Fwiw, I believe that story came up about 12 years ago too, so I wouldn't hold my breath for it or anything, but yeah, I do believe that ppl wanting to reduce carbon emissions / extinction rebellion are way too optimistic about worldwide solar energy at the best of times. It just isn't enough, even if there is no solar minimum.
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The solar cycle is about 11 years long, so you're gonna see that story again in 2031. It really has more to do w/ sunspot activity and such - you and I aren't going to notice a difference in our daily lives. I don't know how much it would affect solar panels, but it's not like every 11 years we have an ice age ;-)
 
Different perspective here, from a non-us citizen. My house is complete solar, no connection so completely off grid power wise. It’s great, a small outlay of $ in the beginning and some maintenance along the way. More than happy, saved a heap of $ over the past 15 years off power bills. But I have no idea what it’s like in the US. But, I am more than happy, and have extra $ in my pocket.
 
FractalAudio said:
I looked into solar and the economics of it just didn't work. It would've taken 30 years to pay off the system by which time the panels would need replacing.
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This is where I end up every time I do the math. Even with crazy high PG&E rates. Best case is somewhere in the 10-15 years to break even and with a PowerWall setup and assuming pretty aggressive price increases from PG&E are coming my way.

The highly variable part of solar in my calculations is the batteries. They don’t have a great shelf life and are expensive. But they also seem necessary if you want to be free of the PG&E tyranny. Otherwise PG&E is your battery and they can change the rules any time want and trash your ROI.

My analysis for the curious:

This is for a home with pretty near perfect positioning for solar too. So maximum efficiency from all the panels.

I’m not convinced the perpetual lease/rent model is worthwhile.

Edit: Tesla thinks that’s under spec’d and I should get an 11kW system now...so it’s really 15 years to parity with PG&E costs.
 
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jefferski said:
The solar cycle is about 11 years long, so you're gonna see that story again in 2031. It really has more to do w/ sunspot activity and such - you and I aren't going to notice a difference in our daily lives. I don't know how much it would affect solar panels, but it's not like every 11 years we have an ice age ;-)
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Yeah haha. The recent article and the one before it were nagging on about famine, freezing civilizations, solar winds and stuff. I know all that crap is just clickbait, but there must be some element of fact in the story and thought that something like a solar minimum might affect harnessing solar energy. Developed countries are also a lot more leveraged in solar energy now than they were 11 years ago.
 
bammbamm said:
I got this offer from Sunrun to install solar panels. After the tax credits, probably costs $11k. I don't use that much electricity right now but I live in SoCal so usage probably will increase since it feels like summer gets hotter every year. I was wondering what you guys thoughts are on this. Thanks!
Click to expand...
Beware of solar lease programs. Some are decent, many are bad. Sometimes, it can make selling your home more difficult. You don't end up owning anything (which can be good or bad). You don't get the incentives, they do. In many cases, you’ll save much more money in the long run by financing such as an FHA Title I loan or a traditional loan from a bank, if you can get it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-sunrun-solar-panels/
This has some good info:
https://news.energysage.com/sunrun-solar-lease-ppa-solar-contract-agreement/
 
jclemensfl said:
Beware of solar lease programs. Some are decent, many are bad. Sometimes, it can make selling your home more difficult. You don't end up owning anything (which can be good or bad). You don't get the incentives, they do. In many cases, you’ll save much more money in the long run by financing such as an FHA Title I loan or a traditional loan from a bank, if you can get it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-sunrun-solar-panels/
This has some good info:
https://news.energysage.com/sunrun-solar-lease-ppa-solar-contract-agreement/
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This part of the second link seems incorrect, least in my case:

Annual rate increase (also known as the “escalator”): It’s important to note that the monthly payment indicated in your Sunrun lease or PPA offer is only your rate in the first year. Leases and PPAs often have an annual rate increase of around three percent per year built into the agreement.

In the example above, the annual increase is 0.99%, which means that the 14.5 cent rate that you pay per kWh will increase to 17.5 cents per kWh by the end of the 20-year agreement.
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My PPA is a fixed rate for 20 years.
 
Also, just a bit of additional info: the solar rate seems to be much more sensible if you're using more of the higher rate tiers. For PG&E, if you're primarily staying in tier 1 then solar doesn't make sense. The rates will be higher.

If you're in tier 2 and into tier 3 that's where the benefit comes.

Also apparently we may soon see additional rate increases for peak time of day on top of the normal tiers.
 
FractalAudio said:
I looked into solar and the economics of it just didn't work. It would've taken 30 years to pay off the system by which time the panels would need replacing.
Click to expand...
Makes more sense in Arizona. Covered as much roof as I could with them. Even if the electricity produced only broke even, the shade would still be advantageous and I'd rather give $$$ to a solar panel manufacturer and instsller than to our corrupt power company....
 
We added solar a couple of years ago. We were well into Tier 3 here in California, so we added enough to cut our annual usage roughly in half (which would eliminate all of Tier 3 and much of Tier 2). We got our 30% federal tax credit, and it still only made sense because of the Net20 agreement that PG&E will give us a 1-to-1 credit for every KWh generated for the next 20 years, and it's expected to take 10-12 years to pay for itself. It's definitely not a no-brainer. Some of the installers are real fly-by-night operations and will destroy the integrity of your roof to install their panels.
 
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