NOT COMPLETE OR OFFICIAL - FM9 Waitlist Tracker

The 10's are probably not much worse than the 9/6 date... LoL! Everyone else just about probably jumped on in the first couple of days.
 
I have an FM3 that I had just finished putting on a Temple board with an outboard Specular Tempus when the announcement came out. I spent considerable time and monies to get it all wired up and swore I wouldn't cannibalize the setup, took me a month to give in.
 
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Just took a quick look at the current data...

There are currently 80 request entries for Aug 27th.
However, there are 13 request entries for the 28th.

I stopped after the 28th because there's a huge time gap between the last Aug 28th entry, and the 29th.

Also, because there are only 2 entries for the 29th, and 3 for the 30th.

Given that FAS had said that they had "a couple hundred" units ready to ship Aug 27, and they sold out of these by Sep 22nd, there was a 2 week time-lapse until units were offered to the public again.

Forum members received only 5 of the first "couple hundred" that sold out on 9/22.

Since then, 9 units went out to folks who received their invites on Oct 4th.

By contrast, only 3 units were purchased by folks who received the invites on Oct 5th.

And the numbers increase to 6 units on Oct 6th.

The average for units purchased from this forum is between 9/22 and 10/06 is 5.75 units.

By estimate, that tells me the first group of 80 requests made on Aug 27 should see completion of this large group in about 14 business days, if supply holds up. If supply dwindles, the invites will lapse until supply is restored. After that, Aug 28th requests should see their invites in a total of 3 to 4 business days. Then, Aug 29th requests, in 1 business day. Then, Aug 30th requests, in about 1 business day.

There are likely others who have not yet added their names to the Waitlist spreadsheet, which may cause a slight error in the average. Until we can gain a clearer view of how the numbers add up, we can only only guess, which may lead to inaccuracies and misinformation. Common sense tells us that when folks provide the necessary data, we can each more clearly see the facts, if we do the work together and avoid the random distractions that only cause confusion.

This is how I've personally interpreted this data. Feel free to add your comments if perhaps there might be something you could add that might help the interpretation of this data.
 
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@Shai`tan,

Why you sad? It's not like you had a roadside emergency. Trust me, it's not rocket surgery. Try to remember that next time you need dental work.
 
bleujazz3 said:
This is how I've personally interpreted this data. Feel free to add your comments if perhaps there might be something you could add that might help the interpretation of this data.
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It's fun to look at this data and track people's shipment, but it's very hard to come to any conclusions since this data set suffers from sample bias. It's limited to forum members that took the time to put their information down to start with as well as closing the loop when they receive the invite to purchase.
 
RockYoWorld said:
It's fun to look at this data and track people's shipment, but it's very hard to come to any conclusions since this data set suffers from sample bias. It's limited to forum members that took the time to put their information down to start with as well as closing the loop when they receive the invite to purchase.
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That is correct. It may not always be easy to track information accurately unless a complete data set is provided. It may not be wise to describe the data set as "sample bias" simply because we would end up dancing around the discussion all day. I personally prefer to think of the words, "being impartial" towards current data, is what produces better results.

What we can hope for is to ask those who have previously made email requests (that have not done so yet) for the FM9 to add their names to the Waitlist Tracking spreadsheet. The average number of units purchased is based on what data has currently been disclosed to us. As experienced musicians, we know a lot of what may not be evident to the average person.

Rather than being a slight irritation, you've correctly identified that is it hard to be efficient without anything more than random information. My feeling is, if folks are only looking for accurate information, it must be provided first, before you can look for it.

I tend to think of things like shining a light on what we can't see yet. The switch still must go on and off before we see what's there.
 
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We're possibly venturing into the time of really dense request events. There could be hundreds within a couple minutes that we don't know about. But it's nice to be able to see something happen here.
 
Based on @Greg Ferguson's estimate of about 20 min daily progress rate, my invite could arrive in 30 business days from today. That wasn't that far off from my original window estimated Oct 27 to Nov 10th. (Well a month's time is more realistic) That would be for 8/28, 6:00 PM EDT confirmation.

It would place my invite email at about Nov 30th. My estimate is based on folks who have previously reported confirmation times, and that the sales rates are for this forum only, but taking into account that there are sales outside this forum that may delay invite times.

It may be that as we see greater progress in email orders, the scale curve for invite times may significantly increase, given that the bulk of sales were requested early on. It's only an educated guess. Thx are credited to @Greg Ferguson for his good bookkeeping.

If 20 mins is the average progress rate for each day, you can extrapolate the timeframes forward and see where you find your possible invite times. You can see the bigger picture this way.
 
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