in my opinion axe 4 will not come before late 2023 or 2024 at the earliest.
The recent Hardware upgrades onn the axe 3 are inline with axe 2's cycle as well 2011 the 2 launched the xl didnt launch before 2014 which is 3 years like how it is now. and then it went another 5 years of updates.
I am expecting 2-3 years more for axe 3. until the 4 comes out and we never know if we get more.
Many of Fractal's platform changes have come from running into walls. Axe-Fx Standard/Ultra ran out of firmware space. Axe-Fx 2 TigerSHARC processors were discontinued.
Axe-Fx 3 Turbo is more like "a faster version of the DSP was available for not too much extra cost so let's put in support" so that Cliff can have an even more no-holds-barred platform to test his magic on. I don't expect it will become any real differentiator feature during the lifetime of the Axe-Fx 3 as Fractal generally avoids doing that if possible. I see the Turbo more as an overkill feature for people who are real power users or for those folks who have FOMO or the need to always have "the best". You can spend your money however you like, not judging.
I recently looked at what TI and Analog Devices offer in terms of DSP chips to see if I can get a glimpse of the possible future. TI offers chips that combine ARM cores and the C66 DSP cores used by the Axe-Fx 3 into a single system on a chip. They have 2x ARM + 4x C66 DSP and 4x ARM + 8x C66 DSP versions. The only problem is that those cost about $300 and $700 respectively. That's per chip for 1000+ units ordered. By comparison the Axe-Fx 3 chips are somewhere in the $50-70 range (not sure of the exact variant used) per chip for 1000+ units ordered.
So unless you are ok with the Axe-Fx IV being extremely expensive (and some of you would be!), I would expect that Fractal will either wait for prices to go down, something new to come to market or use two of the chips they currently use on the Axe-Fx 3 Turbo. Fractal has already talked about some of the challenges of using these chips requiring a lot of surrounding hardware so that would still mean complications for their cheaper and more compact floorboard units.
The Axe-Fx 3 Mk1 is already a freakin' beast of a device. Quotes from the forums about the Mk2:
"There isn't more room for firmware. The firmware ROM is the same size and many times larger than what we are using."
"It's not extra firmware space. There's already plenty of that. It's extra FLASH for "future expansion". This might be factory or user cabs or some other data. I have several ideas I'm kicking around that would use it." This is of course the Fullres IRs we have now.
Let's also not forget all the diminishing returns. The amp modeling is already super good and so are the effects. I could see more advanced cab sim stuff requiring extra DSP but I don't see the amp modeling getting better to a massive degree. FM3 can sound pretty much the same at a quarter of the DSP capability of the Axe-Fx 3 Mk 1.
Plus most of the things I personally would want to see change on the platform are not solved by just throwing more DSP at the problem. Better UIs and front panel controls, better MIDI control support (knob control, not footswitch), wireless functionality, mobile Axe-Edit (Fracpad is not quite there yet), I/O matrix routing, making it work better as an audio interface (in terms of I/O management outside the layout grid) and so on.
I would put my bet on 2024-2026 for a new platform depending on how the pandemic resolves itself in terms of component availability, manufacturing capability and shipping costs. Axe-Fx 2 Mk2 was released last year, FM9 just now so it's not like they are in a hurry to replace them.
and nice to hear the GAS hasn't Infected all of us Tone seekers haha
