Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.
That assumes the age of population is distributed evenly. Have you been to NYC? See a lotta old people there?
https://www.google.com/search?q=nyc...j69i57j0l6.27405j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

A bunch of old farts there apparently. Could be why their C19 death rate is so high as well.

@plexi59 , your conclusions are quite wrong.

Life expectancy of 81 doesn’t mean there are a bunch of old people. The percentage of older people (>65) is somewhere around 15-16%.

Now think about that and look at the monthly death graph in NYC again.
 
Don't know about the rest, but Kushner, Mnuchin and Lighthizer are A-players, and I'm glad they are on the team. I had some reservations about Kushner early on (nepotism and all), but after watching a few interviews with him those reservations evaporated. Trump is getting good value out of $0 he's paying the guy. Ross is secretary of commerce. Of these I'd get rid only of Ivanka TBH. I don't see how she'd add any value.

You're gonna get this one locked too, aren't ya?
 
Don't know about the rest, but Kushner, Mnuchin and Lighthizer are A-players, and I'm glad they are on the team. I had some reservations about Kushner early on (nepotism and all), but after watching a few interviews with him those reservations evaporated. Trump is getting good value out of $0 he's paying the guy. Ross is secretary of commerce. Of these I'd get rid only of Ivanka TBH. I don't see how she'd add any value.
Zero he is paying the guy??? His wife got all kinds of $$$ from China, Saudi's, etc, etc and so did he. They are robbing us blind. Are you serious. Kushner???? is a jerk-well what's the point, obviously you follow and drink the kool aid of the most corrupt administration in modern history. Kushner, Mnuchin??? Wow! Good to know where you are at after all these years.....Thanks for the illuminating rhetoric. BS as it is of course! Now please lock this baby down....Please!
 
@plexi59 , your conclusions are quite wrong.

Life expectancy of 81 doesn’t mean there are a bunch of old people. The percentage of older people (>65) is somewhere around 15-16%.

Now think about that and look at the monthly death graph in NYC again.

After looking into this further, it does seem that people go elsewhere to die. The bold assumption I was making that they live in one place from birth to death was too bold. NYC itself clocks in at about 57K deaths per year. NY state is 118K per year.
 
Sadly, the right hand column has been steadily increasing every day.

8IWGZ6A.jpg
 
Belgium has been hit hard in retirement homes recently. We do rapport as covid casualty, even if there s only a suspicion. This gives us a worse comparative view, but i think it s the right thing to do if other criteria are logged as well (not sure if they do)
If every country would do that, it would give better analysis afterwards.

Criteria like: age / other underlying conditions / home or hospital death / certainty of covid presence /...
 
Here is some more very interesting data.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...Ty1gCM_C_sIrPEdn9clDXIwoGS23m02hudmMthWRVk5ZQ

And here are some comments from the friend who sent me this:

So good news/bad news? A couple of studies have started to appear that suggest widespread asymptomatic cases of SARS-Cov2/COVID-19; MIT Technology Review has published an article on a study in Germany which suggested at one festival town there's 14% spread; a German team at University Hospital in Bonn has used this data to suggest a .37% mortality rate, far lower than the current estimated CFR of 2% in Germany. A separate study of blood donors by the National Institute of Health in the Netherlands suggests that 3% of the population there has been infected (well above current case count of 28,158); this would give the Netherlands a higher mortality rate than Germany of .60% that could be accounted for by differences in population vulnerability and/or public health systems, but still much lower than current CFR projections there. So at one level good news, in that the IFR (infection fatality rate) appears much lower than current CFR (case fatality rate) numbers being reported (the virus is not as deadly as current numbers suggest, at least on an individual level). The bad news portion of that is the virus is far more infectious than some current estimates (the R factor probably being much higher than even the high-end current estimates of 5.7), making it much much harder to ever stamp out and likely leading to SARS-Cov2 and COVID-19 being permanent parts of our landscape, similar to how polio and rubella were before the creation of their vaccines (though the R factor doesn't seem as bad as measles, thankfully). The article [above] suggests that even with the lower mortality rates that the UK might see 600k dead by the end of the spread. In the US, some quick math suggests that to reach so-called herd immunity (around 60% population exposure) without a vaccine or effective treatments then we'd be looking at best case (German model .37% mortality rate) 720k dead; in what I'll call a mid-case (the Netherlands' .6% mortality rate) 1.17m dead; in what I'll call a worst case (poor overall health of our population + US health/political system dysfunction and we come in at 1% mortality rate) then we're around 1.95m over the course of getting to that herd immunity (assuming previous exposure grants permanent future immunity, which is still just a theory at this point).
 
So good news/bad news?

That's been the situation from the very beginning. People who quibbled over the fatality rate have missed the point. When there is no immunity in the population (which has always been the key distinguishing feature between this and the seasonal flu), it doesn't matter if the fatality rate is 0.5% or 5%. With no immunity in the population, so many people will become infected that either end of that fatality rate range will mean a terrifying number of people will become seriously ill or die.
 
This is a common cold in comparison to what climate change has in store for our species.
This is very true Matt, but the virus is killing today and quickly. We must survive the virus to able to fight climate change and hope that"NEW" leaders listen to Scientists and not the 1%.
 
Here is some more very interesting data.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...Ty1gCM_C_sIrPEdn9clDXIwoGS23m02hudmMthWRVk5ZQ

And here are some comments from the friend who sent me this:
To summarize and state the obvious, you can't fight, observe, predict, strategize, plan or execute on what you cannot first see.

Using the article's mountains analogy, even China, with extreme lockdown, is climbing another mountain at the border to Russia. Even in extreme lockdown, transmission rates exceed "rational" awareness (through measurement/observation) because AFAIK, asymptomatic transmission cannot be seen with any methodology except through phone tracing of those with antibodies who've been asymptomatic. IMO, we should be tracking the asymptomatic on phones as heavily as we want to track symptomatic population.

I'm not advocating for how China did things. That said, they are playing the long game -- extremely shutting down only PARTS of their economy/country at a time. That means their economy stays open during the long-term battle against outbreaks/mountains that will continue until they reach the vaccine horizon.

What did we do? We f-ed up so badly for so long we had to shut down nearly all of our economy/country at once. Because of that, our economy is paying a much higher price than China's economy.
The pressure needs to be on testing before re-opening
Testing is what will guide and drive a staged re-opening of the economy

Any other plan is a blind plan.

In other words, if re-opening America's covid-ravaged economy is a fencing match with Bruce Dickinson, you're definitely gonna lose if you're blindfolded!
 
Last edited:
This is a common cold in comparison to what climate change has in store for our species.
This is very true Matt, but the virus is killing today and quickly. We must survive the virus to able to fight climate change and hope that"NEW" leaders listen to Scientists and not the 1%.
Actually, as morbid as it sounds, I guarantee some scientists are having a career/lifetime moment right now. They're able to measure things today that have always been pure fantasy, things directly related to the impact of humans simply moving around out in the open. The fantasy metric-moment of "what if humans stopped doing X" has arrived. If the scientists truly "Carpe Datum" we'll have a few compelling arguments to vote in some common sense environmentally focused policies.
 
Actually, as morbid as it sounds, I guarantee some scientists are having a career/lifetime moment right now.

It's gotten to the point where you can view just about anything with a morbid (Covid-19) slant these days.
Couldn't help but think the other day that Sanja Gupta's agent has already secured his client a very
hefty salary increase at CNN.
 
Don't know about the rest, but Kushner, Mnuchin and Lighthizer are A-players, and I'm glad they are on the team.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha....
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha....
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha....
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha....
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha....
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha....
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha....
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha....
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha....
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha....
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha....
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha....

That's the funniest thing I've read in a while. Thanks for the joke.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom