Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

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DaAxeMan said:
The testing issue is being vastly and scarily ignored. The answer is who knows. We need someone to step up bigtime on this issue or we really are screwed until a vaccine.
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Very true. With a new virus like this, it is hard to objectively address the issue of the accuracy of the test. There simply is no good way to validate it. The symptoms of the patient could be attributed to another disease. Or an infected patient could have no symptoms. So, in the abscence of a corroborrating test, there is plenty of opportunity for false positives and false negatives.
 
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According to CNN: "outbreak in South Korea has occurred among much younger people. There, only 20% of cases have been diagnosed in those 60 years old and up. The largest affected group is those in their 20s, who account for almost 30% of all cases."

It ain't testing. It's that young people aren't dying from this.
 
“Vaccine by September”

“5:46 a.m.: A vaccine against the coronavirus could be ready by September, according to a scientist leading one of Britain’s most advanced teams. Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at Oxford University, told The Times on Saturday that she is “80% confident” the vaccine would work, and could be ready by September. Experts have warned the public that vaccines typically take years to develop, and one for the coronavirus could take between 12 and 18 months at best.
In the case of the Oxford team, however, “it’s not just a hunch, and as every week goes by we have more data to look at,” Gilbert told the London newspaper.”

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada...korea-to-track-people-defying-quarantine.html
 
plexi59 said:
According to CNN: "outbreak in South Korea has occurred among much younger people. There, only 20% of cases have been diagnosed in those 60 years old and up. The largest affected group is those in their 20s, who account for almost 30% of all cases."

It ain't testing. It's that young people aren't dying from this.
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As soon as the kids went on spring break... the reports of younger people dying. These young adults are the one you have to worry about the most, because thier oblivious to risk or mortality.
So the message had to be adapted to address that..

now a newer message, you might catch it more than once. As more people catch the virus, those people then start to go out... need to halt that because it makes it more difficult to manage the population..staying home..
so you see the news morph to a reactive society.. as population management.

but dont dwell on this type of stuff... because it will fool you into dropping your gaurd...
people are starting to become brave, over confident, and loosing fear... more people are going out.. and now is the most critical of times... to stay home.

seems like the only thing that gets folks attention... is fear and thier money... they need to crash the market... hit you in the wallet... to get your intention... and they need to limit that approach.. to balance its impact
people has gotten confused with a early warning...and the lag in the wave of the epidemic.. and in between the warning and the wave is where we are now...
stay home... or thier going to crash the market again
 
if you go give blood
they will also test your blood for Covid antibodies?
they should start doing that..
that would kill two birds with one stone...
very small percentage of people reached, but if you could get yourself a free blood screening... anytime you want... would be a nice touch
 
GlennO said:
Early, swift, decisive, informed efficient decisions. Who would have guessed that having a smart person in charge would be a factor in leading to a better outcome? Set against the federal government, it reveals a striking comparison of opposites.
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Not according to the "smart person" you mentioned: Newsom has been effusive in his praise of the federal government's response efforts, in spite of it being politically inconvenient for him to offer such praise: https://www.axios.com/gavin-newsom-trump-coronavirus-cnn-71e1aa95-39fa-4b77-8fd0-9fbba45014b8.html
 
plexi59 said:
According to CNN: "outbreak in South Korea has occurred among much younger people. There, only 20% of cases have been diagnosed in those 60 years old and up. The largest affected group is those in their 20s, who account for almost 30% of all cases."

It ain't testing. It's that young people aren't dying from this.
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That's neither here nor there, that explains the low death rate. Testing is the start of containment efforts which result in a low death growth rate. We need more testing to go back to life without lockdowns, we're an order of magnitude behind other countries who are able to go without massive lockdowns.
 
How does “testing” that we‘re doing now help with the lockdowns? Just because you were negative today (which the vast majority of tested people are) doesn’t mean you’re still negative the day after if you or your kids are out in the public. For the tests the only useful result at which you can stop testing a person is the positive one. You can forget about repeatedly testing 350 million people again and again--this isn’t going to happen, it’s not feasible, and this isn’t happening anywhere in the world.

What we need are cheap, mass produced antibody tests which can be administered at point of care. These haven’t even been rolled out yet (but have been approved). That’s coming next week. After a million+ of those, administered randomly in each state, we will know statistically what we could expect when we reopen in early May. And no, staying closed beyond that is not an option. But we might have to ramp up PPE and other supplies, and stop dragging our feet on therapeutic interventions.
 
GlennO said:
Early, swift, decisive, informed efficient decisions.
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This, plus I'm beginning to think the two weeks of pretty steady rain we've had across the state (started up north and worked its way down here)
helped a little bit too. It's been pretty heavy at times now for 4-5 days.

This speaks for itself. :mad:

4S8ispj.jpg
 
plexi59 said:
How does “testing” that we‘re doing now help with the lockdowns? Just because you were negative today (which the vast majority of tested people are) doesn’t mean you’re still negative the day after if you or your kids are out in the public. For the tests the only useful result at which you can stop testing a person is the positive one. You can forget about repeatedly testing 350 million people again and again--this isn’t going to happen, it’s not feasible, and this isn’t happening anywhere in the world.

What we need are cheap, mass produced antibody tests which can be administered at point of care. These haven’t even been rolled out yet (but have been approved). That’s coming next week. After a million+ of those, administered randomly in each state, we will know statistically what we could expect when we reopen in early May. And no, staying closed beyond that is not an option. But we might have to ramp up PPE and other supplies, and stop dragging our feet on therapeutic interventions.
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South Korea and Germany gave us a road map on how to do this.

Once the curve is flat if we manage 30 million + tests a day until a vaccine we can get healthy people working while quickly quarantining the infected.

The USA is capable of such production and what are the alternatives? If you let people go back blind the virus will spike and everyone retreats back causing a great depression. Otherwise probably half of the Country will refuse to go back to work blindly which also results in a great depression. Indefinite status quo also results in a great depression.

We need the investment in this level of testing and now. People need to start being extremely vocal about this as the entire world is screwed until the USA solves this.

Please read these two articles about South Korea and Germany as well research more on your own. The current administration has their head in the sand on this topic for some reason and it is time to wake them up!

https://www.google.co.cr/amp/s/www....oronavirus-south-korea-flatten-curve.amp.html

https://apnews.com/03d48eb93fa6cb66262de6f7d57f27df
 
plexi59 said:
How is it being "ignored"? We've done 2.54M+ of the most accurate tests available anywhere as of the time of this writing. All of the current testing in the US is rT-PCR, including the "15 minute" tests, which is state of the art. You can't do it any more accurately with today's technology. That, as far as I understand, was part of the reason why testing was delayed in the first place: less sophisticated tests (such as the ones used in e.g. Russia) have a lot of false negatives, which means they're only slightly better than no testing at all.
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We need 30 million tests + a day and there seems to be one company mass producing tests at a level not near enough. We need more details as I am not seeing enough concern and production! Also per capita testing the US is still getting its ass kicked by several other Countries.

Here is Trump’s attitude on testing from just the other day and he says we don’t need mass testing. 😐

 
yeky83 said:
Do a comparison of tests/deaths between the US and countries like Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore. The US is still an order of magnitude behind.

And the notion that there was some grand intent behind why testing was delayed is laughable. Dunno where you keep getting this stuff.
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True. That was an obvious BS excuse because they thought it was another flu and it would just disappear without much notice. At the start they wanted as little testing as possible.
 
plexi59 said:
According to CNN: "outbreak in South Korea has occurred among much younger people. There, only 20% of cases have been diagnosed in those 60 years old and up. The largest affected group is those in their 20s, who account for almost 30% of all cases."

It ain't testing. It's that young people aren't dying from this.
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Iceland data is showing 50% of the infected are asymptomatic. The young people in South Korea also were mainly asymptomatic. This is another reason why mass testing is so vital. When we go back to work we will have millions of people without symptoms spreading it and then we will be back to square one.
 
DaAxeMan said:
We need 30 million tests + a day
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Yeah, and while you're at it, I also need 10 billion dollars. Get it done, quickly.

The point is, it's not realistic to have 100x the steady state testing capacity in anticipation of an event which may or may not arrive, and ramping it up takes years, at which point this whole thing will play itself out one way or another. This is why NOBODY IN THE WORLD tests everyone.
 
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