Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

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This model, if accurate, predicts it may be sooner. Hopefully it will continue to predict a more optimistic outlook, as it gets updated week by week.

”Adjusted coronavirus model predicts fewer people in US will need hospitals, but 82,000 will still die by August”

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/health/ihme-updated-covid19-model/index.html
The Sourh Koreans, who developed a testing and tracking system... as soon as they lifted restrictions.. a new wave appeared.

We may adapt a similar system...idk... from the sound of it, which sounds like an idea now. To be allowed back to work... you will be tested to see if you have it, or if you have the antibodies. If your all clear, you can return to work...etc.

I dont think anyone is safe, until theres a vaccine.
Flattening the curve doesn't save you from getting the virus. The process will drag out and the risks will still exist. They now see from South Korea... that they cant loosen up the restrictions.. so they really cant pick a time to restart, when they know its suicide
 
While it's in pretty bad taste (maybe that's what you want?) that's not nearly as much of an issue as how vapid and cliche of a name it is. It's about as unimaginative as naming an album or EP "Quarantine" or "Pandemic" right now. Surely you could put a little more effort into a band name? Not trying to be a dick but I know I can't be the only one who thinks that.
Lawrence Wright The End of October...
 
While it's in pretty bad taste (maybe that's what you want?) that's not nearly as much of an issue as how vapid and cliche of a name it is. It's about as unimaginative as naming an album or EP "Quarantine" or "Pandemic" right now. Surely you could put a little more effort into a band name? Not trying to be a dick but I know I can't be the only one who thinks that.
Says death by guitar huh? ;)

(the name was scrapped, but it wasn’t lacking in creativity, idk man, you lowballing me? Lol)
 
And now more sad.
RIP John Prine
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My buddy in France... says everyone is buying up flour. They love thier bread...and so do I. They got no toilet paper...

going to buy up a bunch of flour..ASAP.
 
If you attrack the virus from someone during asymptomatic phase... considered low concentration
or you catch the virus from someone in a later phase, with a higher concentration...
this has a impact on the severity of your case, and how soon your symptoms show 2-14 days

I recently heard this from a friend in France during a conversation. I have not heard this anywhere.
 
Inside the virus. A wormhole view. Understanding what is happening inside the body, and the variations among individuals. Viral load a quantitative measurement of the virus count you have in your body to understand your exposure level, the dose... treating the virus quantitatively vs your immune individual response.

It's a mystery of why it effects some and not others.
And that it's not 100% necessarily because of poor health and old age...
 
I totally want a system in which...

(a.) You have a smartphone app which gives you an account ID and the ability to upload your photo;
(b.) You go to your doctor, get tested, and give your doctor a website you upload your results to, along with your account ID. Your doctor enters the account ID and your face appears, so he/she knows she's attaching the results to the correct person's account.
(c.) After your results are uploaded, you can go to the app and hit a button, and it'll show a QR code.
(d.) Anyone with the same app can use their phone to scan your QR code, and your photo and test-results will appear on their phone.

Going on a date? Trying to get into a bar? Trying to be let back into your workplace? Into a restaurant? Just show the QR code on your phone and they'll check you at the door.

Doesn't seem like an app/site/system of that kind would be too difficult to build. (Admittedly, though, it could take weeks to scale up the infrastructure properly to handle the traffic it would get.)

We could reopen a lot of businesses, provided that they only let in workers and patrons who...
  • have had it already, and
  • are no longer shedding viruses
...both of which are now locally testable at places like CVS pharmacy (or so I hear, though I haven't tried it yet myself).

NOTE: The doctor should, of course, test you both for antibodies (meaning you've already had it) and that you're not "virus-shedding" (meaning that you're no longer infectious. It's only people who are currently-and-for-the-near-future immune, who'd re-enter public spaces.
 
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Doesn't seem like an app/site/system of that kind would be too difficult to build. (Admittedly, though, it could take weeks to scale up the infrastructure properly to handle the traffic it would get.)

Some coders/hackers are brainstorming and developing systems right now which could support something like this. "The Global Hack is an online hackathon designed to share and rapidly develop ideas for urgently needed solutions in the face of the current crisis, as well as to build resilience post-pandemic."

Development website: https://theglobalhack.com/

TED Connects (from this morning starts at 7:00):
 
I totally want a system in which...

(a.) You have a smartphone app which gives you an account ID and the ability to upload your photo;
(b.) You go to your doctor, get tested, and give your doctor a website you upload your results to, along with your account ID. Your doctor enters the account ID and your face appears, so he/she knows she's attaching the results to the correct person's account.
(c.) After your results are uploaded, you can go to the app and hit a button, and it'll show a QR code.
(d.) Anyone with the same app can use their phone to scan your QR code, and your photo and test-results will appear on their phone.

Going on a date? Trying to get into a bar? Trying to be let back into your workplace? Into a restaurant? Just show the QR code on your phone and they'll check you at the door.

Doesn't seem like an app/site/system of that kind would be too difficult to build. (Admittedly, though, it could take weeks to scale up the infrastructure properly to handle the traffic it would get.)

We could reopen a lot of businesses, provided that they only let in workers and patrons who...
  • have had it already, and
  • are no longer shedding viruses
...both of which are now locally testable at places like CVS pharmacy (or so I hear, though I haven't tried it yet myself).

How often does someone need to get tested ? You could be corona free for a day and get infected riding the subway the next, and infect the restaurant on the third day you go in with app.

Not feasible to get repeatedly tested. This is why an antibody test is needed...but such a test without a vaccine has to be used carefully - else someone who wants to go to work and getting denied because they haven’t been infected yet is a bit nutty.
 
How often does someone need to get tested ? You could be corona free for a day and get infected riding the subway the next, and infect the restaurant on the third day you go in with app.

Not feasible to get repeatedly tested. This is why an antibody test is needed...but such a test without a vaccine has to be used carefully - else someone who wants to go to work and getting denied because they haven’t been infected yet is a bit nutty.
True, you could get exposed out and about, but I think the frame of mind would to do this under shelter in place. It will take an effort of unity to do this. We don't have that measurement of unity like the Chinese do. They almost snap thier fingers and the civilization snaps into a mode of unity to take on any challenge... watching thier ceremony during the past China Olympics was scary real.
So we would at least get two tests a month, and tested bi monthly, they have already done this in small towns in Italy... in a small town, there is a sense of community, stronger than in the cities... so they were able to become confident in this Italian town. And we would get bimonthly test in the mail, under at home situation for several months... but that's not practical either.

As far as the antibodies... they dont know how long your body retains them... previous strain has shown 6 weeks in some, and years in another... so the antibody concept is not yet a reality... they dont fully know if you can recatch this virus..again
 
Say, they were able to through testing, and quarantine to able to accomplish something... then what? Test everyone with the 5 minute instant test who crosses the border of Mexico, Canada... every international flight including flight staff, disinfect all luggage and clothing, check an elbow or bottom of shoe, persons clothing for traces of covid?

It's all going to come down to a quickly approved vaccine. And then what.. everyone will have to take a vaccine? Or only people who want to work have to test out to clear? And let the poor and people who refuse to take the vaccine... take thier chances. Would they also include the typical influenza in with the vaccine...stuff like that. Would it be a lifetime vaccine... doubt it... then a annual vaccine... you want influenza and Covid vaccine?..your doctor will say. Are they testing the reaction of Covid and influenza vaccines, or anything else... what are the future complications or side effects of this vaccine?

They will get a vaccine, and push it.... and it's not going to receive any long term studies.

I like the pathway of a effective cure, that is safe and be prescribed.
 
How often does someone need to get tested ? You could be corona free for a day and get infected riding the subway the next, and infect the restaurant on the third day you go in with app.
Not a problem.

The testing, described in my original idea, was serological antibody testing combined with tests for current virus-shedding. (I've added a note, at the end of my original post, to clarify that.)

If you have the antibodies NOW, then you've already had the virus. That means you either...
(a.) have an active case now (in which case you'll be shedding and able to infect others); or,
(b.) you have already recovered and are immune to reinfection (at least for normal-load exposures, and at least for a few years)

The "green checkmark" for letting you into a bar, or wherever, should require 3 tests:
Test 1: You test positive for antibodies
Test 2: You test negative for shedding
Test 3: You retest negative for shedding, a week later

Under those circumstances you're golden. You've had it, you're not infectious, and you're immune enough to not get it again riding the subway. *

Does that answer your objection adequately, @toneseeker911?

* Of course there'll be a 1-in-50,000 chance that you do get it on the subway because some super-spreader breaks the law, sneaks onto the subway without anybody checking his QR code, and sneezes in your face twice, thus overwhelming your existing antibodies with an overwhelming viral load. But such extreme circumstances, if they ever happen, won't happen often enough to outweigh the advantages of getting immune people back out into the economy.

NOTE: Most coronavirus antibodies provide immunity against reinfection by the same or similar viruses for at least a few years. But we don't know exactly how long the immunity lasts...yet. But by this time next year, we'll start to get predictions of how long antibody protection will last.

Therefore, I also recommend that the test-results provided by your doctor be time stamped. They should have an expiration date; after which you'd have to get retested.

But I expect that won't actually be needed. After all, by this time two years from now, every member of the human race will have had exposure and developed some small amount of antibodies (unless they died, or a vaccine came out, or they were deemed high risk and set up to live in permanent quarantine). SARS-CoV-2 is, after all, that infectious, and we're not going to stay in permanent isolation, no matter what. (Doing so would, through poverty and civilizational collapse, kill many more people than COVID-19 ever will.)
 
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I’m thinking Hippa would not like that app. ;)
I agree. But I'm thinking legislation making an exception would, uncharacteristically, fly through Congress and be signed into law the next day.

Let's keep in mind our choices. We have three options:

OPTION 1: "Gee, the current caseload is getting low enough, so, what the hey, let's let everyone back into every public space!" Result: A new wave of infections this fall, a new round of overwhelmed ICUs, and a new round of shelter-in-place orders.

OPTION 2: "Gee, if we let people back into public spaces, we'll have infectable people, infected people, and immune people in one big mix. That'll create a whole new exponential wave of infections and deaths. So let's keep 'em all home, instead." Result: A new wave of bankruptcies, a halving of GDP, a collapse of supply chains, and a depression so deep it'll be like Cliff's worst predictions come true. Hundreds of thousands die early deaths from increased poverty and hopelessness. Overall misery skyrockets.

OPTION 3: "Hmm. Both Option 1 and Option 2 suck. In the first option, we're letting all three categories of people back into public: The infectable, the infected, and the immune. In the second option, we're forcing all three categories to stay at home: The infectable, the infected, and the immune. Why not keep only the infectable and the infected at home, and encourage the immune back into public, to work and play as hard as they can?"

My app recommendation is my attempt to find a way to implement Option 3.

But, hey, maybe my idea needs some work. Maybe some additional details.

Let's call the first form of my proposal a "straw man" suggestion. It's not fleshed out; it's missing details. It's got the right basic idea, but it's the dumb version of the basic idea.

So help me out. What needs to change, to turn it into the smart version of the idea?
 
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