I decided to calculate the doubling intervals for the chart provided by
@Donnie B., above.
I used the numbers in that chart, focusing on Deaths as the most reliably-measurable number. Where a gap existed, I filled in a likely number by estimating from the percentage increases on either side of the missing day. Since these numbers weren't in the original data set, I put them in red:
22-Mar: up ??% to 14,641: doubled on 27-Mar (5 days to double)
23-Mar: up 13% to 16,508: doubled on 29-Mar (6 days to double)
24-Mar: up 13% to
18,700: doubled on 30-Mar (6 days to double)
25-Mar: up 13% to 21,192: doubled on 31-Mar (6 days to double)
26-Mar: up 14% to 24,054: doubled on 01-Apr (6 days to double)
27-Mar: up 13% to 27,333: doubled on 02-Apr (6 days to double)
28-Mar: up 12% to 30,780: doubled on 03-Apr (6 days to double)
29-Mar: up 10% to 33,968: doubled on 05-Apr (7 days to double)
30-Mar: up 11% to 37,686: doubled on 06-Apr (7 days to double)
31-Mar: up 12% to
42,200: will double on...? (estimate 6 days to double)
01-Apr: up 12% to 47,208: will double on...? (estimate 6 days to double)
02-Apr: up 12% to
53,080: will double on...? (estimate 6 days to double)
03-Apr: up 11% to 59,131: will double on...? (estimate 7 days to double)
04-Apr: up 09% to 64,606: will double on...? (estimate 8 days to double)
05-Apr: up 07% to 69,419: will double on...? (estimate 10 days to double)
06-Apr: up 08% to 74,679: will double on...? (estimate 9 days to double)
For
earlier dates, the number of days to double is determined by looking to future days on the calendar and finding the date on which the number of deaths had actually doubled. For
later dates, we haven't yet doubled, so an estimate is given based on the % increase.
CONCLUSIONS:
If current trends continue, the rate of
increase in accumulated deaths is
slowing. Initially the number would double in only 5 days; soon it will be unable to double in less than 10 days.
Putting the same thing another way, the % of increase from day-to-day is dropping. Initially each day would see an increase of 13% over the previous day; we're now seeing increases of only 7% or 8% over the previous day.
If it continues, this trend is good news. It's definitely a sign of a "flattening curve"; the only question is whether it's flattening
enough to avoid overshooting available medical resources.
About that, my best guess is that certain locations
will overshoot resources (indeed New York already has done so), but that the
later the epidemic peaks in any given location, the more likely that peak is to stay within the bounds of available resources. New York merely has the misfortune of going first.