Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

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Donnie B.

Experienced
First off, just a reminder to everyone, including myself!

Rules to remember
  1. Be civil and courteous. Attacks, insults or harassment will not be tolerated.
  2. No religion.
  3. NO POLITICS.

This is the latest as of last night. Fatality rate is #dead divided by #cases.
Sadly, the only number to show doubling+ over both weeks is the deaths column.

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Again note that I've missed some days but will be sure to log each 1 week mark.
 
Good luck with the quoted rules. The usual suspects will soon turn up in their droves and I give it 3 pages before the mods are required to “do their duty”.
Carry on.

Edit. The mods on here have the patience of saints. Kudos to all concerned.
 
I asked @electronpirate permission before starting the thread and noted I'd be quoting those rules,
so I'm sure there will be zero tolerance.

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Saw a couple reports this morning that are saying death rates are starting to show trends
that a person's race (as well as gender) might be playing a role in Covid-19 deaths.
 
I decided to calculate the doubling intervals for the chart provided by @Donnie B., above.

I used the numbers in that chart, focusing on Deaths as the most reliably-measurable number. Where a gap existed, I filled in a likely number by estimating from the percentage increases on either side of the missing day. Since these numbers weren't in the original data set, I put them in red:

22-Mar: up ??% to 14,641: doubled on 27-Mar (5 days to double)
23-Mar: up 13% to 16,508: doubled on 29-Mar (6 days to double)
24-Mar: up 13% to 18,700: doubled on 30-Mar (6 days to double)
25-Mar: up 13% to 21,192: doubled on 31-Mar (6 days to double)
26-Mar: up 14% to 24,054: doubled on 01-Apr (6 days to double)
27-Mar: up 13% to 27,333: doubled on 02-Apr (6 days to double)
28-Mar: up 12% to 30,780: doubled on 03-Apr (6 days to double)
29-Mar: up 10% to 33,968: doubled on 05-Apr (7 days to double)
30-Mar: up 11% to 37,686: doubled on 06-Apr (7 days to double)
31-Mar: up 12% to 42,200: will double on...? (estimate 6 days to double)
01-Apr: up 12% to 47,208: will double on...? (estimate 6 days to double)
02-Apr: up 12% to 53,080: will double on...? (estimate 6 days to double)
03-Apr: up 11% to 59,131: will double on...? (estimate 7 days to double)
04-Apr: up 09% to 64,606: will double on...? (estimate 8 days to double)
05-Apr: up 07% to 69,419: will double on...? (estimate 10 days to double)
06-Apr: up 08% to 74,679: will double on...? (estimate 9 days to double)

For earlier dates, the number of days to double is determined by looking to future days on the calendar and finding the date on which the number of deaths had actually doubled. For later dates, we haven't yet doubled, so an estimate is given based on the % increase.

CONCLUSIONS:
If current trends continue, the rate of increase in accumulated deaths is slowing. Initially the number would double in only 5 days; soon it will be unable to double in less than 10 days.

Putting the same thing another way, the % of increase from day-to-day is dropping. Initially each day would see an increase of 13% over the previous day; we're now seeing increases of only 7% or 8% over the previous day.

If it continues, this trend is good news. It's definitely a sign of a "flattening curve"; the only question is whether it's flattening enough to avoid overshooting available medical resources.

About that, my best guess is that certain locations will overshoot resources (indeed New York already has done so), but that the later the epidemic peaks in any given location, the more likely that peak is to stay within the bounds of available resources. New York merely has the misfortune of going first.
 
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@Dr. Dipwad
Agreed but I fear the reporting by those involved all over the planet might be lagging
a bit due to everyone simply being overwhelmed and exhausted both physically and mentally.
I'd imagine their days are so beyond insane right now. And they keep getting worse.
 
@Dr. Dipwad
Agreed but I fear the reporting by those involved all over the planet might be lagging
a bit due to everyone simply being overwhelmed and exhausted both physically and mentally.
I'd imagine their days are so beyond insane right now. And they keep getting worse.
Certainly possible.

But, we don't want to embrace the available data in full breast-beating lament when it gives us bad news,
only to pooh-pooh it when it gives us (a little bit of) good news! :p

I agree with you: The data is what it is: Collected by tired people in haphazard ways, with cases not included because of lack of testing, and cause-of-death marked as COVID-19 in some locations merely because a person who died of his chronic condition had also tested positive; and not marked as COVID-19 in other places merely because the person had a chronic condition and his death could be explained in terms of that alone.

I'm just hoping it's not completely meaningless or misleading! (But if it is, then neither we nor anyone else has any real clue what's going on, outside the range of our own eyes and ears.)

So, let's make that a caveat to the guarded optimism of my previous post: IF we assume this data is somehow proportionate to reality, and that any understating/overstating remains in similar proportions as time passes, THEN things are looking a bit better than they were last month.
 
I like that the other thread was closed for about 3 hours - before a new one had to be created.
Hasn't this been analyzed literally to death?
 
I agree with you: The data is what it is: Collected by tired people in haphazard ways, with cases not included because of lack of testing, and cause-of-death marked as COVID-19 in some locations merely because a person who died of his chronic condition had also tested positive; and not marked as COVID-19 in other places merely because the person had a chronic condition and his death could be explained in terms of that alone.

My slight pessimism is based on doing reading on the Spanish flu.
100 years later and the death toll is listed as 17 to 50 million.
That's quite a tolerance range: 33.5 million +/- 16.5 million.

Certainly record keeping has improved in all that time - but the situations these people
are working under must be quite similar.

I like that the other thread was closed for about 3 hours - before a new one had to be created.
Hasn't this been analyzed literally to death?

There's a number here participating in the discussion.
If you're not interested in the thread just ignore it.
 
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I like that the other thread was closed for about 3 hours - before a new one had to be created.
Hasn't this been analyzed literally to death?
No. There is constant news, updated data, theories, predictions etc. I mean, it’s the crisis of the hour affecting everyone, so it’s natural that people want to talk about it.
Since this thread has a title that matches its content, it’s easy for anyone uninterested to skip reading.
 
I like how politics is third, but CAPITALIZED!

actually, this is a great place for me to ask a question I wanted to ask but didn’t want to create a thread for...:

Is it in bad taste to name my new band project “COBIT-19”? (You saw the name here first folks so I claim creation and initial use credit in case of copywriting, April 7, 2020)
 
I was singled out in the other post... and I respectfully listened and politely obeyed.

And then it was other people who ruined it.

And then that guy who taunted the moderators was the straw that broke the camels back. no fun
 
Plus depending where you go to seek discussing, the discussion almost always DOES turn into finger pointing and second guessing, which I get. I'd rather look towards unity against a common enemy than read a bunch of hate driven rhetoric. Hopefully, this thread stays it's course and I can get a perspective of how it's affecting others and how they are coping.

For me, I live in Houston, Tx: It has not blown up here yet. The city and surrounding counties have issues stay at home orders, meaning only essential people should go to work. I'm in the development and construction industry, which has been deemed essential, fortunately for me. So our industry is working, mostly from home at about a 70% efficiency. I'm hoping that when it does hit the stay at home order diminishes the outbreak and we are spared somewhat. We're the 4th largest city but we're spread out. The nursing homes are seeing it though and that's really sad.

So, I work...play guitar...make a few calls, answer emails....play guitar...always got the forum page up...play guitar. Rinse repeat. I usually tweak the AxeIII later in the day if I do it at all.
 
Plus depending where you go to seek discussing, the discussion almost always DOES turn into finger pointing and second guessing, which I get. I'd rather look towards unity against a common enemy than read a bunch of hate driven rhetoric. Hopefully, this thread stays it's course and I can get a perspective of how it's affecting others and how they are coping.

For me, I live in Houston, Tx: It has not blown up here yet. The city and surrounding counties have issues stay at home orders, meaning only essential people should go to work. I'm in the development and construction industry, which has been deemed essential, fortunately for me. So our industry is working, mostly from home at about a 70% efficiency. I'm hoping that when it does hit the stay at home order diminishes the outbreak and we are spared somewhat. We're the 4th largest city but we're spread out. The nursing homes are seeing it though and that's really sad.

So, I work...play guitar...make a few calls, answer emails....play guitar...always got the forum page up...play guitar. Rinse repeat. I usually tweak the AxeIII later in the day if I do it at all.
There's one more thing your doing and dont be ashamed to admit that...everyone does it
 
Is it in bad taste to name my new band project “COBIT-19”? (You saw the name here first folks so I claim creation and initial use credit in case of copywriting, April 7, 2020)
I don't know if it's in bad taste, but it feels to me like it's either missing some additional referential humor it ought to have...or maybe I just don't get the reference.

To wit: Why "COBIT-19" specifically? Does BIT refer to something or mean something?

I think if you say something that's arguably in bad taste, there has to be some justification that helps it get past people's "bad taste antennae." Usually, in English-speaking countries, that's humor. If it's funny enough, you can get away with saying almost anything. (It's why Dave Chapelle's career exists.)

So if BIT had been something funny, I think the name would be fine. But since I can't figure out what it is referencing, it falls flat. (To me, at least.)
 
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