Caution, Sellers!

Robboman

Robboman

Fractal Fanatic
A few cautions before you all get over-excited and try to dump your Ultras and Standards today:

1). Demand: There could be absolutely HUGE demand for Axe-II, way bigger than Cliff's wildest dreams. We just don't know yet. On top of that you have those buttheads who buy and re-sell for profit, forcing Fractal out of stock. It's possible you won't be able to get your hands on Axe-II for a long, long, LONG time.

2). New unproven hardware: Often a new device comes out that looks awesome on paper, works great when new and then gets plagued by a recurring hardware problem of some type. If one chip or component has a high failure rate a few months into use, it could be chaos. Massive RMAs, long delays in new production to resolve. I hope not, but this happens sometimes. Anyone remember the XBox 360 overheat issues? Or the various Apple battery issues?

3). New unproven software algorthytms: This is less likely an issue, because Cliff knows what he's doing, but since the software is all new, there must be more potential for bugs and sub-optimal code. What happens if early Axe-II adopters start posting about flaws? Or they do A/B testing against the Ultra and start posting stuff to the effect that the Ultra still sounds better for some reason? If there are lots of improvements to make there will be a steady stream of tone-changing firmware updates that require you to edit all your live presets over and over. It will be like beta testing for the first 6 to 12 months. Are you sure you really want that? Fun, but not for everyone.

I think it might be wise to hang onto your vintage Axe a while longer, even if you are planning to buy Axe-II asap.
 
Good post Robboman! It should be stickied in every forum... You should also post it in every thread where someone is selling their Ultra for a lowball price ;)
 
1. I believe Cliff is fully aware of how big the demand is going to be. Otherwise he wouldn't have done the countdown. Now, if he was dumb and only ordered a couple hundred units, that's his fault. But Cliff isn't dumb. Why would he drum up this much hype and then only have a handful of units to sell? Makes no sense.

2. The same could have been said about the Gen. 1 axe-fx. But it turned out fine didn't it? You really think Cliff is going to get it wrong the second time?

3. Again, he got it right the first time. This is moot.
 
james... said:
2. The same could have been said about the Gen. 1 axe-fx. But it turned out fine didn't it? You really think Cliff is going to get it wrong the second time?

3. Again, he got it right the first time. This is moot.
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Not to mention that in its infancy the 1st gen was basically a garage-build compared to the established company he has now. While I don't want to put words in his mouth, I would bet that the testing methodology and the beta-test program were probably much more comprehensive this time around then it was oh-so-many years ago.
 
Robboman said:
A few cautions before you all get over-excited and try to dump your Ultras and Standards today:

1). Demand: There could be absolutely HUGE demand for Axe-II, way bigger than Cliff's wildest dreams. We just don't know yet. On top of that you have those buttheads who buy and re-sell for profit, forcing Fractal out of stock. It's possible you won't be able to get your hands on Axe-II for a long, long, LONG time.

2). New unproven hardware: Often a new device comes out that looks awesome on paper, works great when new and then gets plagued by a recurring hardware problem of some type. If one chip or component has a high failure rate a few months into use, it could be chaos. Massive RMAs, long delays in new production to resolve. I hope not, but this happens sometimes. Anyone remember the XBox 360 overheat issues? Or the various Apple battery issues?

3). New unproven software algorthytms: This is less likely an issue, because Cliff knows what he's doing, but since the software is all new, there must be more potential for bugs and sub-optimal code. What happens if early Axe-II adopters start posting about flaws? Or they do A/B testing against the Ultra and start posting stuff to the effect that the Ultra still sounds better for some reason? If there are lots of improvements to make there will be a steady stream of tone-changing firmware updates that require you to edit all your live presets over and over. It will be like beta testing for the first 6 to 12 months. Are you sure you really want that? Fun, but not for everyone.

I think it might be wise to hang onto your vintage Axe a while longer, even if you are planning to buy Axe-II asap.
Click to expand...

Very wise words! Well said.
 
No, I'm pretty sure the AxeII is going to be a disaster. Every body trying to sell theirs (except for me) should stop.
 
james... said:
1. I believe Cliff is fully aware of how big the demand is going to be. Otherwise he wouldn't have done the countdown. Now, if he was dumb and only ordered a couple hundred units, that's his fault. But Cliff isn't dumb. Why would he drum up this much hype and then only have a handful of units to sell? Makes no sense.

2. The same could have been said about the Gen. 1 axe-fx. But it turned out fine didn't it? You really think Cliff is going to get it wrong the second time?

3. Again, he got it right the first time. This is moot.
Click to expand...

+1

The OP is worried for no reason IMHO.
 
JustinAiken said:
No, I'm pretty sure the AxeII is going to be a disaster. Every body trying to sell theirs (except for me) should stop.
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Damn, he's onto me. :)

I didn't say how likely I think each of my scenarios is, but they are certainly possible and should be considered.
 
I have a 'honeymoon' vintage. Still have the box, manual and the display is wrapped in plastic. I paid for it with blood and waited 6 months and 3 days on the waiting list. It was the first one sold in NM. I applaud Cliff in making progress with the Axe II and I might even get one but rest assured no one is going to get my baby.
 
Im keeping My Ultra for a while. Best boat anchor I ever owned ; )
Yea it may wind up like my Vetta 2 combo, where Id have to stuff money in it to sell...
I'll be ready for the AxeIV by then ; )
 
james... said:
I believe Cliff is fully aware of how big the demand is going to be. Otherwise he wouldn't have done the countdown. Now, if he was dumb and only ordered a couple hundred units, that's his fault. But Cliff isn't dumb. Why would he drum up this much hype and then only have a handful of units to sell? Makes no sense.
Click to expand...

the fact that he did the whole countdown thing does mean that he was well aware of how big the demand would be, but that doesnt necessarily mean that there will be enough units for everyone. a lot of times, when a company is releasing a ridiculously hyped product, they make sure that there wont be enough for everyone in order to keep the hype up.
 
I'm currently gigging only with my acoustic band, so I've have had some time to think about backup strategies as I prepare to go electric again. I have a strong emotional attachment to my Bassman amp, so that was going to be my backup strategy--although it never would have worked in practice. Now the Ultra becomes a relatively inexpensive backup. And my Bassman is already up for sale (a moment of silence, please).

I'll agree that Cliff surely estimated a higher initial demand this time around, but demand will still exceed what he is able to have available the day the store opens. I'm wondering how that basic Yahoo storefront is going to handle the traffic, but I bet the cupboard is bare by the time we wake up out here in the Pacific NW.
 
My Axe-Fx Ultra is up for sale but I am in no selling panic at all, as I need and use my Ultra daily. If I can sell it for the price I want, it goes. Then my next modeller will be the Kemper Profiling Amp or maybe the Axe II.
 
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