Axe-Fx IV release estimate?

I want to invest into a Fractal but do not want to buy something which will be replaced in a year.

Legit concern. Keep in mind that the processing power of the 3 compared to all prior units is
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much more of a jump than between prior units. I also would like to know for sure that there won't be new releases making the 3 extinct any time soon. You can still see the Ultra and early models with resale value so at some point you just have to know what you want and buy it. If you want a potential for less loss wait for the FM3. They will be selling for a similar value as new for a long time even if they do come out with an FM3 II. You are getting in early so it appears that there will be many years before something new needs to come out. Many updates until then.
 
Right now, I don't think the III is bumping up against a technical limitation wall. The hardware is likely good for a while. Software updates will keep coming, and the product will improve even more over time.

Competition also drives innovation, and until there are units from competitors that are doing something the III can't do, I don't know if we'll see a replacement. As long as it's selling well, they are probably happy supporting it rather than trying to replace it for the sake of a cash infusion.
 
Personally, I think Fractal are trying to avoid having different versions if the same basic machine this time. I just get the feeling that they went all in on the hardware side of the III to avoid having Ultra and XL versions down the line. They will probably continue to make little changes like the fan temperature control that they did recently without calling it MKII or whatever.

Of course, there might be yet development in available hardware or customer demand that might result in significant revisions resulting in a new III. I am fairly confident that Axe-Fx IV is at least a couple of years out though. The III is just over a year old after all.
 
It's par for the course with just about any purchase you might make. The newer/updated version will always be around the corner. You eventually wind up with purchase paralysis and never buy anything. If you're married, your wife will love this.

Unless you're one of those folks that always has to have the latest and greatest thing I would say buy the 3 and start enjoying it. If the previous iterations of the AxeFx are any indication, you will get plenty of mileage out of the unit long after it isn't the current version.
 
I don't foresee a new unit for at least a few more years. Heck it's only over a year old. This industry is not like high-volume consumer products. We don't release new versions every year or two.

And excellent and honest answer.

I'm a hobbyist, I've had the III since it first was available in the UK and if the IV came out tomorrow I'd be fine with it. I've got so much pleasure and enjoyment from the III already - more than happy, and the residuals are good on Fractal partly because of the excellent support.

If you're worried, it's the same answer as all technology - either buy as early as you can to maximise the time you're current or frankly don't buy at all, buy one and keep it forever.

Same with computers, TVs anything else
 
wow these answers baffle me. Are none of you part of a business? Where I work, when we release new products we always guestimate at a lifecycle. Pretty much all businesses do this and im 100% certain Cliff at fractal does the same. Often you can look at their release history to get a guestimate. Do things change...YES, but it doesn't hurt to be informed before buying. Just doing my homework. I have a Helix and it is serving me ok...and if there was a likely hood the AXE IV would come out this year then id hold off but if it is very unlikely then im jumping in.

A business that operates the way you are suggesting won’t be in business long, at least not in a competitive product driven market space. GM just announced the new vette at roughly the same price as the previous model (not unlike FAS has done previously) ..I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that the design/ prototyping phase took longer than a year before the announcement. If they announced those spec’s more than a year ago, how do you think that would effect sales of the existing model? Business’ exist to make a profit, giving market competitors strategic info and self sabotaging sales doesn’t serve that end.

Worst case scenario, you get a 3 and shortly thereafter the IV is announced... you flip the 3 and your out a couple hundred bucks...seems like a fair risk in exchange for having the bleeding edge now. None of the flagship product cycles have been anywhere near the timeline we are at now.
 
Surely a successor to the AX8 is on the way to rival the new Kemper or is that the FM3 + FC6?
you mean the kemper all-in-one that was just announced this week? you think Fractal immediately has something comparable to that format within days? just trying to understand.

when is the Axe4 coming out? tomorrow. the answer always is tomorrow. and if it doesn't come out, it's the next tomorrow. don't ever buy anything!
 
I don't foresee a new unit for at least a few more years.

... with the potential caveat that if they release a chip tomorrow that triples the CPU power vs. an FXIII using the same coding, generates no heat, fits on the head of a thumbtack and costs $50... I put money that a new fractal product may soon follow. And I will gladly purchase it...
 
you mean the kemper all-in-one that was just announced this week? you think Fractal immediately has something comparable to that format within days? just trying to understand.

Yeah, the answer to the new Kemper floor board
 
I don't foresee a new unit for at least a few more years. Heck it's only over a year old. This industry is not like high-volume consumer products. We don't release new versions every year or two.
Well there you have it from the man himself. He said “At least a few more years”. In my book “few” would mean something like 3, maybe 4. That would put you somewhere in roughly 5-6 years for an overall Axe III life cycle.

The “in between” (e.g. XL+) releases as I recall were largely iterative expansions driven by either minor modifications or due to changes in parts availability. As an example IIRC the main difference between the XL and the XL+ was the main LCD screen that was used. They could no longer source the screen used on the XL and when they went over to a different screen they renamed the XL to XL+.
 
The way I see it all new units came out for a logical reason, not a business reason. There was the Standard, then there was the chance to put a stronger DSP in it, so the Ultra was created. But that one soon wasn't strong enough and had too little memory, so two DSPs were put in and the memory increased once more. The II Mark 1 had some design flaws, that were fixed in the Mark 2. There was an ever increasing demand for more memory and e.g. better a/d-converters were released (?), hence the XL, but soon the display ran out of production, hence the XL+. But even with two DSPs (Tiger Sharks) the processing power wasn't enough anymore and more importantly that one also ran out of production, so Cliff was kind of forced to switch to a new platform. All that is out of memory

Now, the interesting questions (imho) are:
  1. Would the III exist, if the Tiger Shark wouldn't have gone out of production? I think it would have come out eventually, but maybe a bit later.
  2. Why did Cliff not only increase the processing power, but also the memory by a BIG amont? He could have left the memory much lower and then release a III Mark 2 with the amount it has now. Sure, he could have put in even more, but I think it's easier for him to predict how far the requirements will / can go compared to earlier days.
  3. Are there any design flaws, which should lead to a Mark 2? I can't remember seeing complaints about the hardware. Again, Cliff surely has learned from the past.
  4. Can the current processing power become too weak? Sure, but the III seems to be SOOO close to transparency, I think that's ok. More processor cores aren't an option because of latency, switching to yet another DSP vendor would be silly. Rewriting the damn thing again? Oh boy!
The III seems to be a solid choice! And this is coming from an absolutely non-fanboy, who quite often criticises and questions things and decisions.
 
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