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Anyone know Stock Market software (ThinkorSwim) procedures? Options Trading?

yeky83

Power User
Also Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Whenever shit hits the fan in China, those serve as a good indicator there's something big rolling downhill. But they are steady at the moment, from which I conclude things are manageable there.
China might've kept things manageable by their quarantines, who knows. But the troublesome data point seems to me what Cliff said before, that the infection rate has gone exponential outside of China. Who knows what'll happen, but I can't imagine quarantines being carried out nearly as well in non-authoritarian parts of the world.
 

plexi59

Power User
Where do you see that? I check this page on a daily basis: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. "Exponentially" doesn't mean much unless the base of the exponent is large, and it's not, outside of China, and in China it's not exponential since they literally welded people inside their homes by now. Nor are there a lot of deaths outside China either. China fucked up their first response, and their high population density isn't doing them any favors. Others did not. Remember, we can cure ebola nowadays. A disease that just a few years ago would make one bleed out of their eyes and shit their guts straight out.
 

FractalAudio

Administrator
Fractal Audio Systems
Moderator
Where do you see that? I check this page on a daily basis: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. "Exponentially" doesn't mean much unless the base of the exponent is large, and it's not, outside of China, and in China it's not exponential since they literally welded people inside their homes by now. Nor are there a lot of deaths outside China either. China fucked up their first response, and their high population density isn't doing them any favors. Others did not. Remember, we can cure ebola nowadays. A disease that just a few years ago would make one bleed out of their eyes and shit their guts straight out.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The base of the exponent outside China is somewhere around 1.2. That's huge. That means in 30 days there will be 237 times as many cases. Since there's about 5K cases outside China that's 1.2 million.

Ebola is far less infectious than coronavirus. Ebola's weakness is that it kills its victims too quickly so they can't spread it.

This has the potential to be another Spanish flu. Million of deaths. Certainly a major economic shock.
 

yeky83

Power User
Where do you see that? I check this page on a daily basis: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. "Exponentially" doesn't mean much unless the base of the exponent is large, and it's not, outside of China, and in China it's not exponential since they literally welded people inside their homes by now. Nor are there a lot of deaths outside China either. China fucked up their first response, and their high population density isn't doing them any favors. Others did not. Remember, we can cure ebola nowadays. A disease that just a few years ago would make one bleed out of their eyes and shit their guts straight out.
In addition to the arcgis page, I like this page as well: https://covid19info.live/
 

bjjp2

Experienced
I remember being on vacation in our RV in 1999 and I just had to make sure I ordered a generator sufficient enough to power my house because at 12:00 am on 1/1/1999, the computers were going to shut down and power grid was going to collapse.

It could have happened, but it didn't.

This kind of reminds me of that and I hope we have the same outcome.
It didn’t happen not because it was a false alarm but because billions of dollars were spent to fix it.
 

plexi59

Power User
There was an article the other day on why Arcgis visualization is completely misleading to the point of being bogus. Contrary to what it’d make you believe, not even all of China is severely affected.
 

creativespiral

Inspired
Sadly, most people have no concept of the art of information design. It should be required learning for all communication professionals, and should be publicly ridiculed when done incompetently. It has become a major problem over the past few years with the rise of meme culture, where everyone wants to share a single image/graph to summarize a complex issue. So much bad information design leading to mischaracterization of statistics and the truth. Everyone should go read some Edward Tufte.
 

plexi59

Power User
One man's problem is another man's source of income. I'm pretty sure this shit is being done deliberately to drive clicks nowadays. And hoo boy does it ever drive those clicks.
 

creativespiral

Inspired
Brutal to have young kids at a time like this... (1, 5, and 7 here) We've currently got a mild flu bug doing the rounds in our house... Keeping the kids home from school. If there is a Covid-19 outbreak in Los Angeles, its gonna be the germ factory that is elementary school that gets us all sick. Hoping the CDC and LAUSD School District are on top of it. I'm already feeling hesitant of sending kids back to school next week.
 

creativespiral

Inspired
One man's problem is another man's source of income. I'm pretty sure this shit is being done deliberately to drive clicks nowadays. And hoo boy does it ever drive those clicks.
Yeah, certainly some of it is intentional / propaganda - the weaponization of information design.... that shit should be illegal!

Lies, damn lies and statistics...
 

plexi59

Power User
If you look at stats, you'll see that it's overwhelmingly the elderly who are kicking the bucket because of this, and often also with pre-existing conditions. I'm pretty sure schools and daycares would be closed in case there is an outbreak, though, precisely because of that. There are 60 cases and no deaths in the US so far. You have a higher chance of winning a lottery than getting infected, at least under the current circumstances.
 

Jimmytwotimes

Experienced
The market was long overdue for a correction - people were just looking for a reason. Well they found their scapegoat in the coronavirus.
We saw it ( not on quite the same scale) with SARS, bird flu, pig virus, zika.. mad cow.... Whatever - the death rate is same or lower than the common flu. Unless you're really old or really young or immune compromised, you're gonna be fine. Wash your hands, use hand sanitizer, don't touch your face - blah blah blah. The market will be back - typically there is a "V" shaped correction when this has happened in the past.. Everyone needs to stop freaking out.
 

creativespiral

Inspired
If you look at stats, you'll see that it's overwhelmingly the elderly who are kicking the bucket because of this, and often also with pre-existing conditions. I'm pretty sure schools and daycares would be closed in case there is an outbreak, though, precisely because of that. There are 60 cases and no deaths in the US so far. You have a higher chance of winning a lottery than getting infected, at least under the current circumstances.
Not sure about the lottery analogy... as Covid-19 is a rapidly changing situation, just starting to hit the States... It appears the mortality rate is somewhere around 20x higher than the common flu bug (2.5% death rate compared to 0.1% death rate), the transmission rate is high: 2.3 R0?

Yeah, schools will certainly close if its reactionary to spread in the community... the trick is going to be for the CDC and school district to monitor the situation and decide when its good to be "proactive" and close down schools before a spread. Elementary schools are total germ factories... if just one infected kid comes to school, with the incubation periods and transmission rate as they are now, its likely that it will be a disaster for the community.

Also, my middle daughter (5) and I have mild asthma issues.
 
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yeky83

Power User
Not sure about the lottery metaphor... as Covid-19 is a rapidly changing situation, just starting to hit the States... It appears the mortality rate is somewhere around 20x higher than the common flu bug (2.5% death rate compared to 0.1% death rate), the transmission rate is high: 2.3 R0?

Yeah, schools will certainly close if its reactionary to spread in the community... the trick is going to be for the CDC and school district to monitor the situation and decide when its good to be "pro-active" and close down schools before a spread. Elementary schools are total germ factories... if just one infected kid comes to school, with the incubation periods and transmission rate as they are now, its likely that it will be a disaster for the community.

Also, my middle daughter (5) and I have mild asthma issues.
My, your daughter's asthma issues must have you concerned. We've been sick like 5 times this winter cus of our baby, and he doesn't even go to school yet.

I'm almost certain there's going to be an outbreak in LA... That Korean Air flight attendant with the virus, she is said to have serviced two flights to LA as well as going to a bunch of the popular restaurants in K-town. With the seeming ease of transmission of this virus... My norcal Korean community is certainly worried and talking about it.

As a tidbit, in Korea, apparently there's a few elevator-ride infection cases that show the effectiveness of wearing masks. In one case, it's said that three people shared a ride in an elevator. Two had masks on, one didn't. One of the masked person had the virus, and the other person with the mask wasn't infected while the person without was. I wasn't going to buy masks cus of the "you don't need it if you don't have the virus" advice I'd heard, but I'll probably try to get some now.
 

creativespiral

Inspired
My, your daughter's asthma issues must have you concerned. We've been sick like 5 times this winter cus of our baby, and he doesn't even go to school yet.
Yeah, before kids I would sometimes go several years without catching a flu bug... now its multiple rounds per year. Once they get into daycare/preschool/elementary school, there's no avoiding it.

We've got a 1yr old, a 5yr old and a 7yr old - once one of them becomes sick, our house becomes a petri dish and we all get sick, no matter how hard we try to disinfect things... with the 5yr and 7yr old, they will try to do their best to do vampire sneeze, but invariably, they'll forget 1 out of 5 times... and when the 1yr old gets sick, she just slimes everything. Ah, the fun of parenthood.
 

BaronVonGrim

Experienced
You dont need to invest in a winner to make a little monies. If you have patience and learn to follow your gut.... after you crunch a few numbers of course.Screenshot_20200228-163839_Gallery.jpgScreenshot_20200228-163603_Gallery.jpg
 

Rich G.

Experienced
What did you make last year?

A capital gain rate of 15% applies if your taxable income is $78,750 or more but less than $434,550 for single; $488,850 for married filing jointly
For clarification on 2019 Capital Gains tax rates, for single it's:

0% for taxable income of $0 to $39,375
15% for taxable income of $39,376 to $434,550
20% for taxable income $434551 or more

Source: https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/taxes/capital-gains-tax-rates/
 
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