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Jimmytwotimes

Experienced
I think it is important to point out that this virus is no worse that the flu. The death toll will soar because the rate will soar but it is still around 2%....The lack of population immunity is the reason its spreading so fast. The biggest worry will be that everyone is sick at once. If your going to go full quarantine on this, then what about all of the other bugs that we're constantly exposed to that carry the same threat level?
Agreed - I think this is a knee jerk reaction - you can catch the common flu just as easily if not more so...
This is a good article for everyone that's freaking out -

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/26/opinions/colleen-kraft-coronavirus-best-defense/index.html
 

sheky

Experienced
Flu has a fatality rate of .1%which is a lot lower than 2%, though the 2% is likely inflated due to undiagnosed mild infections.

They don't know yet what meds if any are effective.
 

electronpirate

Moderator
Moderator
Yes. (Quick voice of reason...). The mortality rate is still low at 2% which will most likely come down as many have it and experience not more than mild flu symptoms...easily treatable once recognized early. Couple this with the relative poverty, vulnerable populations, and lower rates of health in China, and we get inflated numbers.

It's worth watching, but it is by no means a reason to panic.
 

levipeto

Fractal Fanatic
1, Spreads way faster than flu.
2, Spreads before symptoms show.
3, There is no cure, yet.
4, Mortality rate is very high. Don't use the ratio how many people got infected vs how many died, because it's irrelevant. Use the recovered vs died.
5, Data is useless anyway, since the Chinese government can't provide factual data.

Most likely 60+% of the earth's population will catch it. With 2% death ration (which is waaay underestimated) means at least 4.5 billion people will get infected. So minimum 90 million people will die.

6, It seems like you can catch it more than once.

So yeah, it's not like the flu.

Edit: 7, We haven't even see the mutations yet, that's mortality rate could go much higher!
 
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chris

Legend!
1, Spreads way faster than flu.
2, Spreads before symptoms show.
3, There is no cure, yet.
4, Mortality rate is very high. Don't use the ratio how many people got infected vs how many died, because it's irrelevant. Use the recovered vs died.
5, Data is useless anyway, since the Chinese government can't provide factual data.

Most likely 60+% of the earth's population will catch it. With 2% death ration (which is waaay underestimated) means at least 4.5 billion people will get infected. So minimum 90 million people will die.

6, It seems like you can catch it more than once.

So yeah, it's not like the flu.
i've been watching this closely, whatever information is available. i agree with almost all points, but i think 60% is a high number at this point. if people continue to ignore the severity, we will see that number. it can definitely happen. but i don't think it's likely if quarantines and other preventative measures are enforced and followed.

the latency in symptoms showing up is the most frightening part, where you can have it and spread it yet not show any issues yourself.

we need to all be diligent and the agencies need to share information as it comes, not cover it up to prevent a panic. majority will not panic if well-delivered information and real data is shared. people WILL panic if it's "suddenly" rampantly spreading... we need to avoid that with information sharing.
 

levipeto

Fractal Fanatic
i've been watching this closely, whatever information is available. i agree with almost all points, but i think 60% is a high number at this point. if people continue to ignore the severity, we will see that number. it can definitely happen. but i don't think it's likely if quarantines and other preventative measures are enforced and followed.

the latency in symptoms showing up is the most frightening part, where you can have it and spread it yet not show any issues yourself.

we need to all be diligent and the agencies need to share information as it comes, not cover it up to prevent a panic. majority will not panic if well-delivered information and real data is shared. people WILL panic if it's "suddenly" rampantly spreading... we need to avoid that with information sharing.
60% is generous even in the U.S.
In China, India, Africa will be much higher and that's 3.9 billion people right there.

We can't prevent it, only delay it.

BTW my goal is not to argue, but because I care about you guys and when I see "It's no big deal, people are just paranoid" makes me worried, because you can get in trouble with that attitude.

8, Even if the virus disappeared by tomorrow, the economy would be still hurt by the damage what it caused so far (and the big wave is in front of us)
 
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levipeto

Fractal Fanatic
The music business will be hurt by it a lot.
Concerts will be cancelled.
Tours will be cancelled
Famous musicians will die.
It will take a long time until people will show up at venues again. :(
 

sheky

Experienced
Can the Diamond Princess serve as an ideal closed case study? 700 infections, all tested and monitored. So far 4 deaths. Once all the cases resolve one way or another within a week or so, won't we have the fatality rate? I guess you'd have to adjust for the fact that cruise passengers tend to be older and the vast majority of deaths are over the age of 60-65.
 

Jimmytwotimes

Experienced
60% is generous even in the U.S.
In China, India, Africa will be much higher and that's 3.9 billion people right there.

We can't prevent it, only delay it.

BTW my goal is not to argue, but because I care about you guys and when I see "It's no big deal, people are just paranoid" makes me worried, because you can get in trouble with that attitude.

8, Even if the virus disappeared by tomorrow, the economy would be still hurt by the damage what it caused so far (and the big wave is in front of us)
Yeah -not arguing, just that its a LOT of speculation there.
 

chris

Legend!
Can the Diamond Princess serve as an ideal closed case study? 700 infections, all tested and monitored. So far 4 deaths. Once all the cases resolve one way or another within a week or so, won't we have the fatality rate? I guess you'd have to adjust for the fact that cruise passengers tend to be older and the vast majority of deaths are over the age of 60-65.
i don't think you can get an accurate R0 from an isolated situation like that. at some point it will run out of people to infect, and we know that it spreads so easily already, the number may be meaningless. what a horrible situation that all is/was.
 

sheky

Experienced
i don't think you can get an accurate R0 from an isolated situation like that. at some point it will run out of people to infect, and we know that it spreads so easily already, the number may be meaningless. what a horrible situation that all is/was.
I had to google it, but I see R0 is the rate of infection spread. But what I was wondering if it would yield a more or less accurate fatality rate since we have a defined group of infected people. I don't mean to be insensitive, it was such a nightmare I couldn't bring myself to read the articles.
 

chris

Legend!
I had to google it, but I see R0 is the rate of infection spread. But what I was wondering if it would yield a more or less accurate fatality rate since we have a defined group of infected people. I don't mean to be insensitive, it was such a nightmare I couldn't bring myself to read the articles.
yeah that's the "R Naught" or rate of infection/spread. how many people 1 person spreads it to. under 1 and it's going away, above and it's spreading. that's the number i'm watching. it's around 6.7 or so last i saw, probably higher outside of china, but apparently it should be coming down within china. but it could change in a moment with new data. this is all crazy.
 

JJunkie

Power User

plexi59

Power User
Masks also help only if you are infected, to prevent transmission to others. They do bupkis if you want to protect yourself. Respirators help, but viruses can enter your body through your eyes as well. Anyway, if we can't deal with this shit any better than we could 17 years ago, we suck as a species, and deserve to die. :)
 

BaronVonGrim

Experienced
Not one, but two antiviral drugs have been found to work: remdesivir (by Gilead, so you know it's gonna cost an arm and a leg) and chloroquine. The latter is very cheap and common in the US (used to treat malaria, 50 cents a pill). The former is already being made in China as we speak, ignoring US patents. That's probably why the stock market is up.
I heard that people are drinking like 20:1 diluted chlorine with water.... because of choroquine.
 

Rich G.

Experienced
Ouch... todays market
would have been nice to sell on Cliffs advice.
problem is my portfolio is too big... and dumping everything would bump be up into insane tax brackets and capital gaines
This has been painful. We're now down 12% over the past week. Hate waking up to see another 3% drop before the market opens.
 
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