Aliens.

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Muad'zin said:
We have lottery winners too. And each probably considers him or herself very lucky. But they still don't realize how lucky they were, because odds of 1 in a million or a billion are just not fathomable to the average human mind.

We are the descendents of lottery winners. We don't realize how lucky we are, because unlike with the lottery we don't see the millions upon millions who did not win. Therefore we don't know how lucky we were, if it was extraordinary lucky. We inhabit a planet in the goldilocks zone of a star that is fairly quiet and which is not bathing us that much in deadly radiation. Right now the star is fairly comfy. And we still have a core that creates a magnetic field that shields us from the suns radiation But our neighbor Mars became a dead world by losing its atmosphere, while our other neighbor was fairly hospitable a billion years ago but is now a living hell. So will the Earth be in 600 million years. In our solar system Jupiter sweeps most of the nasty asteroids out of our sky, but it could just as easily have swept Earth out of the solar system as well. Without Saturn to keep it in check Jupiter would have moved inwards to the sun, in which case Earth would have been ejected from the solar system and be a lifeless ice ball in interstellar space. And without the moon to stabilize us Earth might have been spinning so hard to have had a day lasting only a few hours. And Earth sized planets having a moon as large as the Moon is very rare. Only Pluto has a similar system with Charon. And we haven't even touched how supernova's can destroy solar systems lightyears away from. Or god forbid having a pulsar in your galaxy, in which case the entire galaxy is basically dead. There are zombie galaxies out there.

There are so many factors that go into how life can develop that we take for granted because we are lottery winners, but we don't know the odds nor what happened to the losers. For all we know life only succeeds in developing one in a trillion odds. Which could mean only one inhabited planet per galaxy. That is why we need to find out if life exist on the moons of the outer solar system and if so if it developed independently from Earth or was seeded via asteroids from Earth or some other original source. For all we know life developed on Mars or Venus first and got seeded to Earth.



The vastness of space is hard to comprehend for most people. The solar system alone is vast beyond comprehension. Even more so if you realize that the Kuijper Belt alone stretches out for even further then the distance from the sun to Neptune and the Oort Cloud could stretch out up to 1,5 lightyears if not more?

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You should look into the science behind the manipulation of gravity, there are articles on someone named Dr. Salvatore Pais who has patents backed by the US military involving the manipulation of gravity, which is achieved via microwaves (obviously way more complex) surrounding the border of the ship, but it's reliant upon technology that hasn't been fully developed yet (with the exception of the proof of concept, and some kind of model iirc, by some students @ MIT) A Room Temperature Super Conductor.

Nonetheless, the science is extremely fathomable. If you've ever looked into Bob Lazar and his explanation on how the ships that crashed at Roswell operated, he explains how they're able to shoot a particle accelerator @ something called Element 115 (something we can't produce a stable form of yet, but it's been proven to exist). Which is specifically machined into a certain type of polygon (Here's a relative article discussing a breakthough discovery in a complex geometric shape that allows complex quantum level computations to be made on a single piece of paper: Article), that when it reaches a certain temperature, it becomes insanely dense and produces it's own gravitational field, which is then essentially transmitted through gravity emitters that essentially allow you to control it. It's all within the realms of absolute possibility, but we're at a standstill due to our lack of knowledge with material science. That being said, it speaks volumes that we've had have no material science R&D within 0-gravity, but that's a whole different conversation within itself that's riddled in speculation.

We're just about to reach the realm of quantum computing in every day life as well, the next 20 years are going to be insane in terms of technological development, and I honestly cannot fucking wait.
 
Jambi said:
Totally understand your point of view here, and I’m a subscriber of the many parts of the belief myself, but there’s plenty of proof that the eye has evolved, and has evolved many times over independently of each other.
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Just to be clear, I'm not referring to micro-evolution.

Back on the main topic (someone else brought up the creation issue, btw), ever watch a cat follow a laser pointer? From the cat's POV, it moves extremely fast, makes no sound, can stop on a dime, reverse directions in a split second, and even seem to disappear, if say it gets blocked by a chair. What if what we are seeing (that doesn't cause sonic booms, and has no propulsion plume) is something like that laser?
 
The Manhattan project only took 27months and 2 billion dollars. During that time they figured out how to wipe out every living thing on the planet. The cold war arms race lasted 45 years and cost over 10 Trillion dollars(that's just what's on the books). A large portion going into R&D. We can only imagine what was developed. Seriously...there's no reason to show your entire hand to your enemies (or allies) when what's on the table is so advanced and deterrence enough. So I'm not completely sold on the whole alien conspiracy thing. I do hope to find out the truth in my lifetime tho.
 
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THREE WORDS THAT FALSIFY EVOLUTION:

Integrated Functional Complexity
———————————

- Do you Love Mathematics..??

- The probability of a fine tuned universe by
Chance:

- 1 to 10^10^123 :

- by Professor Roger Penrose Nobel prize .

- Probability for life started alone by chance:

- 1 to 10^40.000 :

- by scientists: Fred Hoyle and Chandra
Wickramansinghe .

- It is equivalent of : The chance that higher life
forms might have emerged in this way is
comparable with chance that a tornado
sweeping through a junkyard might assemble
a Boeing 747 from materials therein.
Fred Hoyle..!!

- The probability for single simple complex cell
by Chance:

- 1 to 10^41.000 :

- by Stephen Meyer (Signature in the Cell).

- The probability for single Protien by chance:

- 1 to 10^164

- The probability of just one DNA arranging
itself by chance:

- 1 to 10^119.000

- It is equivalent as you winning the LOTTERY
EVERY DAY FOR 5 BILLION consecutive
years..!!

- Good Luck
 
reclavea said:
THREE WORDS THAT FALSIFY EVOLUTION:

Integrated Functional Complexity
———————————

- Do you Love Mathematics..??

- The probability of a fine tuned universe by
Chance:

- 1 to 10^10^123 :

- by Professor Roger Penrose Nobel prize .

- Probability for life started alone by chance:

- 1 to 10^40.000 :

- by scientists: Fred Hoyle and Chandra
Wickramansinghe .

- It is equivalent of : The chance that higher life
forms might have emerged in this way is
comparable with chance that a tornado
sweeping through a junkyard might assemble
a Boeing 747 from materials therein.
Fred Hoyle..!!

- The probability for single simple complex cell
by Chance:

- 1 to 10^41.000 :

- by Stephen Meyer (Signature in the Cell).

- The probability for single Protien by chance:

- 1 to 10^164

- The probability of just one DNA arranging
itself by chance:

- 1 to 10^119.000

- It is equivalent as you winning the LOTTERY
EVERY DAY FOR 5 BILLION consecutive
years..!!

- Good Luck
Click to expand...
Don't copypasta drivel off Facebook and try to pass it off as mathematical or scientific. This is the same sort of mathematical fuckery that can prove that you only actually work 1 day a year and that X Gon' Give It To Ya. Your fun with exponents is a supposition, that's all. It's cocktail napkin, party trick math and it didn't win anyone a Nobel.

Mathematician Proves X Gonna Give It to Ya
 
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reclavea said:
THREE WORDS THAT FALSIFY EVOLUTION:

Integrated Functional Complexity
———————————

- Do you Love Mathematics..??

- The probability of a fine tuned universe by
Chance:

- 1 to 10^10^123 :

- by Professor Roger Penrose Nobel prize .

- Probability for life started alone by chance:

- 1 to 10^40.000 :

- by scientists: Fred Hoyle and Chandra
Wickramansinghe .

- It is equivalent of : The chance that higher life
forms might have emerged in this way is
comparable with chance that a tornado
sweeping through a junkyard might assemble
a Boeing 747 from materials therein.
Fred Hoyle..!!

- The probability for single simple complex cell
by Chance:

- 1 to 10^41.000 :

- by Stephen Meyer (Signature in the Cell).

- The probability for single Protien by chance:

- 1 to 10^164

- The probability of just one DNA arranging
itself by chance:

- 1 to 10^119.000

- It is equivalent as you winning the LOTTERY
EVERY DAY FOR 5 BILLION consecutive
years..!!

- Good Luck
Click to expand...

Tell me where I'm wrong:

(I) The chance of winning a fictional intergalactic lottery is 1 in 5 trillion.

(II) I win.

What now? Is the outcome invalid? It is very unlikely, but it still happened...

(I) Life starting alone by chance is 1 in 10^40000

(II) We know for certain that life exists on planet earth

(III) This means that the life lottery was won. Doesn't matter how long it took or how improbable it was, it did happen.

Where is the logical fallacy?

Let's take a look at sports:

The perfect inning (nine pitches, nine strikes, three outs) has been only achieved 102 times.

If the Baltimore Orioles (lol) achieve a perfect inning next season, would that mean that this is an invalid outcome because it's highly improbable? Last year, the Cleveland Indians scored a perfect inning, so it must be invalid as it's highly unlikely to achieve this feat.
 
SiggyCertified said:
June 1st is coming. Who's interested? Who saw the 60 minutes piece? Who's still skeptical? Lets talk it out.
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Me, definitely.

There have been several videos of UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon) released over the last 18 months, or so, that have been verified as authentic by Navy, Pentagon, etc., with two just a couple of weeks ago from a naval vessel showing a pyramid object and another disappearing into the ocean. The revelation of a 'secret government project' that went on for several years was also interesting (Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program (AATIP)).

There is a lot of credible, factual, physical evidence that there are indeed things flying around the world that absolutely defy our current knowledge of physics, gravity, propulsion, inertia, aerodynamics, and a host of other fields. That is not to say it's 'aliens, has to be' but it really is a true mystery, no doubt.

While I'm very curious as to what my be revealed next month but don't expect anything overly 'earth-shattering', I do hope there are some revelations of substance and not standard boilerplate babble.

This book is a very objective, well researched, level-headed, and factual read on UAP's:

UFOs: Generals, Pilots, and Government Officials Go on the Record by Leslie Kean

Leslie continues to research and report on the subject, and I've watched a couple recent-ish interviews with her that talk about the videos and the current 'state-of-the-art' regading UAP's....fascinating, and a very, very curious subject indeed.
 
Jambi said:
Totally understand your point of view here, and I’m a subscriber of the many parts of the belief myself, but there’s plenty of proof that the eye has evolved, and has evolved many times over independently of each other.
Click to expand...
Four times. if I remember correctly.
 
Joker said:
Tell me where I'm wrong:

(I) The chance of winning a fictional intergalactic lottery is 1 in 5 trillion.

(II) I win.

What now? Is the outcome invalid? It is very unlikely, but it still happened...

(I) Life starting alone by chance is 1 in 10^40000

(II) We know for certain that life exists on planet earth

(III) This means that the life lottery was won. Doesn't matter how long it took or how improbable it was, it did happen.

Where is the logical fallacy?

Let's take a look at sports:

The perfect inning (nine pitches, nine strikes, three outs) has been only achieved 102 times.

If the Baltimore Orioles (lol) achieve a perfect inning next season, would that mean that this is an invalid outcome because it's highly improbable? Last year, the Cleveland Indians scored a perfect inning, so it must be invalid as it's highly unlikely to achieve this feat.
Click to expand...
- The probability of just one DNA arranging
itself by chance:

- 1 to 10^119.000

- It is equivalent as you winning the LOTTERY
EVERY DAY FOR 5 BILLION consecutive
years..!!

🤷‍♂️

These are precisely why the philosophical concept of the "Multi -verse" was introduced.
 
reclavea said:
- The probability of just one DNA arranging
itself by chance:

- 1 to 10^119.000

- It is equivalent as you winning the LOTTERY
EVERY DAY FOR 5 BILLION consecutive
years..!!

🤷‍♂️

These are precisely why the philosophical concept of the "Multi -verse" was introduced.
Click to expand...

My question is not about probabilities per se. I asked where the fallacy was in my chain of reasoning.

If something can happen with a probability of P, and we know it happened, why is the outcome doubted based on the magnitude of P?

Is your argument that intelligent design is more probable in that case than this one in a gazillion chance that it happens randomly? If intelligent design is true, then what is the probability that this intelligence behind it exists in the first place? Was this intelligence the product of randomness? If not, was the intelligence behind this initial intelligence a product of randomness? Do you just presuppose a prime mover to make sense of all of this? What is the conclusion that we should reach based on these probabilities?

I'd say that the existence of the metaphysical realm is a better argument for a demiurge than these probabilities.

I'm not saying you're wrong or anything, I'm just skeptical as it still doesn't make fully sense to me, that's all.
 
SiggyCertified said:
Distance and time are only relevant to those who haven't developed the capability to manipulate it, this is an inevitability if our race continues.
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Yeah, but the thing is, most of the theories that allow for FTL travel also require solar levels of energy output. You'd have to harness the full output of the sun for many of those things to be possible. Which is why I often say that we need fusion energy. Why it is best to stop wasting money on wind mills and solar panels and start a Manhattan style project to develop nuclear fusion. As it is both clean energy, AND it will open up space travel for us.

Personally I think its far more realistic to assume that FTL travel will forever be beyond our reach and plan interstellar colonization accordingly.

reclavea said:
THREE WORDS THAT FALSIFY EVOLUTION:

Integrated Functional Complexity
———————————

- Do you Love Mathematics..??

- The probability of a fine tuned universe by
Chance:

- 1 to 10^10^123 :

- by Professor Roger Penrose Nobel prize .

- Probability for life started alone by chance:

- 1 to 10^40.000 :

- by scientists: Fred Hoyle and Chandra
Wickramansinghe .

- It is equivalent of : The chance that higher life
forms might have emerged in this way is
comparable with chance that a tornado
sweeping through a junkyard might assemble
a Boeing 747 from materials therein.
Fred Hoyle..!!

- The probability for single simple complex cell
by Chance:

- 1 to 10^41.000 :

- by Stephen Meyer (Signature in the Cell).

- The probability for single Protien by chance:

- 1 to 10^164

- The probability of just one DNA arranging
itself by chance:

- 1 to 10^119.000

- It is equivalent as you winning the LOTTERY
EVERY DAY FOR 5 BILLION consecutive
years..!!

- Good Luck
Click to expand...
Thing is though, we don't know for certain what these probabilities are as we only have a sample of 1 to judge by. And a statistic of 1 is no statistic at all. This is why I keep saying that we need to find out if life exists on the water moons in the outer solar system or if life ever existed on Mars or Venus. We need more samples before we can make a real statistical analysis of how likely life is in the universe.

Joker said:
Tell me where I'm wrong:

(I) The chance of winning a fictional intergalactic lottery is 1 in 5 trillion.

(II) I win.

What now? Is the outcome invalid? It is very unlikely, but it still happened...

(I) Life starting alone by chance is 1 in 10^40000

(II) We know for certain that life exists on planet earth

(III) This means that the life lottery was won. Doesn't matter how long it took or how improbable it was, it did happen.

Where is the logical fallacy?

Let's take a look at sports:

The perfect inning (nine pitches, nine strikes, three outs) has been only achieved 102 times.

If the Baltimore Orioles (lol) achieve a perfect inning next season, would that mean that this is an invalid outcome because it's highly improbable? Last year, the Cleveland Indians scored a perfect inning, so it must be invalid as it's highly unlikely to achieve this feat.
Click to expand...
Like I said, the lottery winner, or sole survivor of a massive disaster, only questions its luck because it knows there are billions of losers, or hundreds or thousands who did not survive the disaster. If you don't know of the existence of the losers, or all the dead, would you lose a moment's sleep over having won? Which in a way is how I suspect a lot of people who live in extreme wealth live. If you lived in extreme wealth your entire life, don't know how the poor live and/or don't know any poor, do you lose any sleep about their lives and wealth inequality?
Joker said:
My question is not about probabilities per se. I asked where the fallacy was in my chain of reasoning.

If something can happen with a probability of P, and we know it happened, why is the outcome doubted based on the magnitude of P?

Is your argument that intelligent design is more probable in that case than this one in a gazillion chance that it happens randomly? If intelligent design is true, then what is the probability that this intelligence behind it exists in the first place? Was this intelligence the product of randomness? If not, was the intelligence behind this initial intelligence a product of randomness? Do you just presuppose a prime mover to make sense of all of this? What is the conclusion that we should reach based on these probabilities?

I'd say that the existence of the metaphysical realm is a better argument for a demiurge than these probabilities.

I'm not saying you're wrong or anything, I'm just skeptical as it still doesn't make fully sense to me, that's all.
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Personally I am not concerned with what was the prime mover behind creation or not. The universe as we observe it already invalidates all the creation stories of all the holy books of all religions. Unless they were kept very very vague. It happened. I am satisfied with sheer random chance being behind everything as we live in a VAST universe where even odds of 1 in a trillion can and do happen. Our existence is proof of that.
 
Muad'zin said:
Thing is though, we don't know for certain what these probabilities are as we only have a sample of 1 to judge by. And a statistic of 1 is no statistic at all. This is why I keep saying that we need to find out if life exists on the water moons in the outer solar system or if life ever existed on Mars or Venus. We need more samples before we can make a real statistical analysis of how likely life is in the universe.

Like I said, the lottery winner, or sole survivor of a massive disaster, only questions its luck because it knows there are billions of losers, or hundreds or thousands who did not survive the disaster. If you don't know of the existence of the losers, or all the dead, would you lose a moment's sleep over having won? Which in a way is how I suspect a lot of people who live in extreme wealth live. If you lived in extreme wealth your entire life, don't know how the poor live and/or don't know any poor, do you lose any sleep about their lives and wealth inequality?

Personally I am not concerned with what was the prime mover behind creation or not. The universe as we observe it already invalidates all the creation stories of all the holy books of all religions. Unless they were kept very very vague. It happened. I am satisfied with sheer random chance being behind everything as we live in a VAST universe where even odds of 1 in a trillion can and do happen. Our existence is proof of that.
Click to expand...

Again....Fermi's Paradox...

However,...your "The universe as we observe it already invalidates all the creation stories of all the holy books of all religions."

....In actuality it's quite the OPPOSITE. ALL the observations we see confirms the creation account of Genesis 1:1

And i'm referring to observational empirical evidence and laboratory empirical evidence.

Quite astounding I might say.
 
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