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  1. P

    Bought UA OX

    In the spirit of supporting the ailing US economy, I bought the UA OX. I have to say, this is the first power attenuator that I bought that doesn't suck (out of the total of 3 over the years). I haven't yet explored the actual cab/mic modeling in it, but purely as a power soak, it's pretty...
  2. P

    Experiences with Peterson Strobe Tuners

    I (and apparently Andy Timmons) use this one https://www.turbo-tuner.com/pages/slides05.htm. Great accuracy, great visibility.
  3. P

    Deep Learning for Guitar Effect Emulation

    Though right now you need like $10M and 6 months to do what they did.
  4. P

    Deep Learning for Guitar Effect Emulation

    If you're gonna do down that path, you might as well go the entire way: https://openai.com/blog/jukebox/
  5. P

    Confined Bad Horsie

    His live streams are solid gold IMO. He should have gotten onto this bandwagon long ago.
  6. P

    Is this for real?

    WTF?
  7. P

    Ended up buying a Taylor 814ce

    Going to make some, yes. It’d be a crime not to - it’s very pretty. Usually I have buyers remorse for such expensive purchases - my heightened expectations do not match reality. Not in this case.
  8. P

    Ended up buying a Taylor 814ce

    Thanks to all for valuable advice. What an incredible instrument, holy crap. I should have bought a proper acoustic years ago.
  9. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    FYI, Seattle's percentage of 65 and over is 10.2%. NYC is 14.1%
  10. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    After looking into this further, it does seem that people go elsewhere to die. The bold assumption I was making that they live in one place from birth to death was too bold. NYC itself clocks in at about 57K deaths per year. NY state is 118K per year.
  11. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    Don't know about the rest, but Kushner, Mnuchin and Lighthizer are A-players, and I'm glad they are on the team. I had some reservations about Kushner early on (nepotism and all), but after watching a few interviews with him those reservations evaporated. Trump is getting good value out of $0...
  12. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    https://www.google.com/search?q=nyc+life+expectancy&oq=nyc+life+expe&aqs=chrome.0.0j69i57j0l6.27405j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 A bunch of old farts there apparently. Could be why their C19 death rate is so high as well.
  13. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    This chart looks like hosrseshit to me. Simple arithmetic: 8.4M people in NY, assume generous 80 year life expectancy - that's 105K people dying per year, or 8750 per month. You're being lied to.
  14. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    It means no such thing. For all we know once we randomly administer antibody tests we might find out that a significant chunk of the population already had the disease asymptomatically, in which case we could open things up much sooner. Randomness lets you collect approximate, statistically...
  15. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    https://abbott.mediaroom.com/2020-04-15-Abbott-Launches-Third-COVID-19-Test-a-Laboratory-Based-Antibody-Blood-Test-That-Will-Ship-in-the-U-S-Starting-Tomorrow 1 million antibody tests this week, 1 million each week thereafter. And that's just Abbott.
  16. P

    Retirement balance with the current market?

    Yep, just checked my bank and there it is: $2900 from "IRS TREAS". After decades of paying massive amounts of taxes, it's nice to get something back for a change.
  17. P

    Retirement balance with the current market?

    Family of 3 gets something like $2900 stimulus check tho. I think I'll be getting one accidentally. My wife and I took almost all of 2018 off (by choice), and we made well below the eligibility cutoff that year. So apparently we'll be getting $2900 even though I made a ton of money last year...
  18. P

    Retirement balance with the current market?

    There really can't be a "timeline". This is an executive decision, not a scientific one, in the sense that there's no good time to re-open in the absence of a vaccine. Essentially you're screwed whichever way you go. More people will get sick. More people will die. This was the plan all along -...
  19. P

    Retirement balance with the current market?

    That's true. But it's naive to expect that the economy can just pick up where it left off after a 2+ month hiatus. There will be a drop in output, if for no other reason than there are now 16M+ people without jobs. Probably over 20 by the time the next stats are reported. I get that probably the...
  20. P

    Retirement balance with the current market?

    Market makes no sense at all right now. The economy is circling down the drain yet markets are up. Don't get me wrong, I'm OK with them being up, but the behavior is puzzling to say the least. It's as though they're anticipating something I'm not. Amazon in particular has fully recovered and...
  21. P

    Steve Vai Q&A's

    That tone is so dialed in. Would love to have a preset like that in my AxeFX 3. :)
  22. P

    Pickslanting ?

    Slanting is only a very, very small part of the puzzle. Most people (myself included) don't have sufficient hand synchronization to play very fast. And there's no quick and easy technique to build that up unfortunately.
  23. P

    Time for Fractal to go native

    There's really no way to protect the IP if you ship software. Someone will just fire up IDA disassembler and rip you off in a few days. So, not gonna happen. Same reason why lots of stuff is moving to the cloud nowadays: it's easier to sell that way.
  24. P

    If you were to buy a Taylor acoustic

    How does one even try an acoustic out properly? If I'm playing the guitar, I'm not hearing the same tone a microphone positioned in front of the guitar would pick up.
  25. P

    If you were to buy a Taylor acoustic

    I thought porn was prohibited on this forum.
  26. P

    If you were to buy a Taylor acoustic

    So, OK, 814CE looks good to me. Any model years to prefer/avoid? Or should I just get a new one?
  27. P

    If you were to buy a Taylor acoustic

    Sounds like 814CE is the "consensus" choice so far.
  28. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    I'm not saying asymptomatic for C19. I'm just saying "did not die of C19 complications". There is a difference, and not a subtle one. To get what I'm saying, assume the patient is positive and symptomatic, but shows no sign of respiratory distress. Verifiably not true. See numbers tested vs...
  29. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    Denmark is opening up next week: https://www.thelocal.dk/20200406/denmark-to-reopen-schools-and-kindergartens-next-week Although they hedge this by saying that "the epidemic might start to take off again", and they'll keep the ban on mass gatherings until at least August.
  30. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    You're presuming that @Donnie B. was trying to make a valid point. If that were the case, he'd also take into account where in their respective timelines these countries were, and normalized by population. Had he done that, the post would not be worth making. :) Number of infections is a...
  31. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    Is it a C19 death if you would have died 2 weeks from now anyway? Or to reduce this ad absurdum: if someone dies of food poisoning (5K deaths in the US each year according to CDC) and they also test C19 positive, is it a C19 death or not? Because right now in the US you can guess which counter...
  32. P

    If you were to buy a Taylor acoustic

    Say, money is not an issue, and a manageable body size is desired. Cutaway, too, so upper frets are reachable. I just want to close the "acoustic guitar" issue once and for all, as convincingly as possible, and in a way that I would not be able to meaningfully "upgrade" from 3 years down the...
  33. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    And I can get great "results" if I just get a few billion dollars to my name. Doesn't mean it's feasible. You have to always run the numbers to see how realistic your propositions are, and how long they will take to ramp up. Some drugs that are being tested are just baffling. Some monoclonal...
  34. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    And that's why they're rolling out antibody testing within the next couple of weeks. Fundamentally it's an executive decision. There won't be any time when there's no danger. Not even after they roll out the vaccine - plenty of antivax nutcases in the US won't get vaccinated, and it's a free...
  35. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    So is everyone else in the countries I mentioned. And yet, look at them piling up the body count. That's a trillion dollar question. At the moment, the answer is: nothing. Build up hospital capacity and supplies and let 'er burn slow by selectively opening things up, while maintaining social...
  36. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    We have half the death rate of Switzerland, almost 1/3rd the death rate of UK, 1/5th the death rate of Italy or Spain, 1/3rd the death rate of France, in spite of widespread political sabotage by the states. We have a surplus of hospital beds and equipment, too. That's not a "fail". That's a "win".
  37. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    It's not "insane". It's how this country was designed to work from the start at the constitutional level. All the testing capacity is held by the states. How do you propose the federal government should handle this? Seize the testing equipment from the states? I'm sure that'll go over well. Or...
  38. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    Yeah, and while you're at it, I also need 10 billion dollars. Get it done, quickly. The point is, it's not realistic to have 100x the steady state testing capacity in anticipation of an event which may or may not arrive, and ramping it up takes years, at which point this whole thing will play...
  39. P

    If you were to buy a Taylor acoustic

    I'm thinking of getting a 614ce. I have a cheap Breedlove acoustic I bought about 12 years ago, which I dread playing because it sounds kind of muffled acoustically. 614 seems like the opposite of that - bright, open tone. I do love the Breedlove neck profile though. Almost as comfortable as a...
  40. P

    If you were to buy a Taylor acoustic

    Which one would you buy and why?
  41. P

    Is internet connection essential for recording?

    I think the lack of internet connection is critical for recording. Otherwise there's too much temptation to bullshit on the forums and not enough time to do anything useful. I manage to kick this affliction from time to time, but right now I'm in full relapse. Building up the willpower to go...
  42. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    And after we have antibody tests, y'all will need to install these apps: https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/04/apple-and-google-partner-on-covid-19-contact-tracing-technology/ and report your result.
  43. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    How does “testing” that we‘re doing now help with the lockdowns? Just because you were negative today (which the vast majority of tested people are) doesn’t mean you’re still negative the day after if you or your kids are out in the public. For the tests the only useful result at which you can...
  44. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    Fake news. I have not seen a confirmation for this in any reputable source.
  45. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    Not according to the "smart person" you mentioned: Newsom has been effusive in his praise of the federal government's response efforts, in spite of it being politically inconvenient for him to offer such praise...
  46. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    According to CNN: "outbreak in South Korea has occurred among much younger people. There, only 20% of cases have been diagnosed in those 60 years old and up. The largest affected group is those in their 20s, who account for almost 30% of all cases." It ain't testing. It's that young people...
  47. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    Do you know what an "order of magnitude" even means? Korea tested 9957 per million. We've tested 7760 per million and capacity is still ramping up quickly. Taiwan tested 1908 per million, far less than us. Singapore is a city-state, you're better off comparing it to e.g. NYC which tests at a...
  48. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    I'm skeptical. A "technician" would not know these percentages - she only takes the blood or swabs. She does not see the results of the test. If this is true, they could open up very soon. Which is why I doubt this. Sounds like the usual fake news.
  49. P

    Covid-19 Pandemic Discussion

    How is it being "ignored"? We've done 2.54M+ of the most accurate tests available anywhere as of the time of this writing. All of the current testing in the US is rT-PCR, including the "15 minute" tests, which is state of the art. You can't do it any more accurately with today's technology...
  50. P

    Impressive

    Dude covers the entirety of Passion and Warfare, including all backing tracks:
  51. P

    UAD Luna

    Needs a dongle? Fuck right off with that bullshit.
  52. P

    Annoying email situation

    Pretty sure I had already unsubscribed from nearly all of these things in the past. Seems like someone in marketing is just trying to be "clever" and counting on CAN-SPAM act not being enforced.
  53. P

    Annoying email situation

    This, basically: https://preview.redd.it/najyoto8ovr41.jpg?width=640&height=664&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=ff2865fe0eb35da9258041578552bb3a42ff2bf5
  54. P

    Annoying email situation

    Every single company and government entity I've ever dealt with even peripherally is sending several emails per week about "their response to the coronavirus". Folks, for the love of god, just stop already. I don't give a shit how you deal with the coronavirus by and large. I care how my...
  55. P

    Help me choose some pickups

    Yeah, $350/pair? That's gonna be a no from me, dawg. :)
  56. P

    Help me choose some pickups

    JB is not for everyone. It has quite a bit more highs than DiMarzios I've used, which can sound brittle. It's also pretty hot as far as output, which also might not be to everyone's liking. Worth a try, it's not a bad pickup, but it's not a silver bullet. FWIW mine has been sitting in a drawer...
  57. P

    Love When Guitar matches your nails and lipstick

    A female friend of mine argued that guitar necks are too wide and piano keyboards are too large, and therefore they "discriminate" against women. Videos of Lari, Yuja Wang, and Hiromi Uehara closed the argument pretty quickly.
  58. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    HCQ is officially recommended by the Yale School of Medicine: https://files-profile.medicine.yale.edu/documents/7801c631-3dcc-48fc-a438-3aa18f3b7130 Let's see the resident virologists and epidemiologists here take this one down.
  59. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19/ 1291 patients treated with Hydrodychloroquine+Azithromycin, 1 (one) deceased. Italy is starting to treat at the onset of symptoms. Russia is starting a study using their variant of malaria drug. Hoo boy, a bunch of people are about to eat a huge...
  60. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Novartis CEO says chloroquine is their "biggest hope" as they make 130M doses: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/novartis-ceo-says-malaria-drug-072752054.html Meanwhile, the US press is engaged in the deadliest disinformation campaign in history.
  61. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    I mean 1M in the US. Looks like it’ll happen in about 4 weeks.
  62. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    It’s going to grow for a while even under the best of circumstances. At least to 1M infected I wouldn’t worry too much. That’s your yearly flu haul. If it goes beyond 1M, there maybe some reason for concern.
  63. P

    #masks4all + #StayTheFuckHome => RO<1!

    If nothing else masks prevent you from touching your mouth and nose. If you're wearing glasses as well, you can't touch your eyes either. I think the initial recommendation not to wear them was a well intentioned lie to prevent hoarding. I also heard that the WHO/CDC recommendation will change...
  64. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    For F@H stats, how often is this updated: https://stats.foldingathome.org/team/236174 ? Does anyone know? It's been less than 24 hours, but I'm seeing about 3GPUs worth of continuous workload, and CPUs are kicking in occasionally. I'd think I should be on the list at this point, no?
  65. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    95 years old, beat COVID19 with chloroquine+zpac in Switzerland: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-swiss-survivor-idUSKBN21E2OW. Refused intubation too. What a badass.
  66. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    I think that's actually not true, at least not in the US. Could be true in Europe where smoking is still more of a thing, but I haven't checked.
  67. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Did you know this until I posted it? No? I think it's safe to assume that Joe Public has no idea whatsoever about the death counts due to various causes. That's what I meant by "nobody".
  68. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Those who choose to do so can refuse treatment and wait for quadruple blind randomised studies to be completed to confirm that the results are inconclusive. For the rest, multiple small scale studies will produce results by late next week. If someone is heading towards the grave, I see no...
  69. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    “Fun” fact: every day 2200 children worldwide die of diarrhea: https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/global/diarrhea-burden.html. Just one of the things nobody noticed until now.
  70. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Not even sure of what "in ICU" means either. I'd settle for "patient cannot survive without mechanical, forced ventilation", for the definition of a "serious" case. Ventilators (and the requirement of being mechanically ventilated) seems to be one of the main factors in whether the patient will...
  71. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Um. No. China is to blame. This is not the first time this shit escapes their wet markets, and not the first time they try to cover it up. They close down the markets, and then open them right back up a few months later when epidemics blow over. This is idiotic IMO. It's not like they don't know...
  72. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Could be that they want the crisis to last for a little longer to pass a bunch of totalitarian bullshit laws. France was getting restless before the crisis. The rubes were defying the ruling class. That could end with a few strokes of a pen if situation gets a little worse than it is now, and...
  73. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    So coming back to F@H, I started that last night using Docker, but my machines are mostly idle. At the moment only 3 GPUs are used and no CPUs. Sounds to me like researchers are pissing away a golden opportunity for infinite compute.
  74. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    This is meaningless because there's no universal definition of what constitutes a "serious" case. It's also frustrating that nobody seems to give a shit about counting those who have recovered from the disease.
  75. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Germany, has fourth highest per capita healthcare spending in the world (and that money is probably better spent as well, Teutonic efficiency is a thing), Italy is 21st. Significantly more old people as well. There you go. These are very nonlinear circumstances...
  76. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    A lot more people will die, and public needs to be prepared for it psychologically. Some 160K people a year in the US, mostly seniors, succumb to lower respiratory disease. Even more die of cancer and cardiovascular disease. A lot of them die even without any coronavirus, on their own or helped...
  77. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Speaking of bending the rules, 5 minute test just got approved by the FDA: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/abbott-labs-receives-fda-approval-for-rapid-covid-19-test-2020-03-27. 50K tests a day coming as early as next week. This is a virus test, not an antibody test. It's to detect active...
  78. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Second study on hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin confirms the first: https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-IHU-2-1.pdf. Patients are able to leave hospital in ~5 days. Time to ban it in more states? :)
  79. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    People you’ve read about died from eating aquarium cleaner by the spoonful. You’ve been misled by the media. They’ve since edited the headlines and the articles. Go see for yourself. Meanwhile, the dude from the Imperial College of London whose team was predicting “500k” deaths in the U.K...
  80. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Link to in-vitro study: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15351731 as well. We should know this by mid next week for sure. Cuomo got beat over the head with a shovel a bit, so he allowed the trial to proceed in NY. Why would anyone ban a drug that could help dying patients is beyond me...
  81. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    How do you know it's "not correct"? Quote from the Bahrain News Agency (BNA): " The drug is reported to have had a profound impact when used to treat the symptoms exhibited by active Covid-19 cases. Bahrain first used the drug on Feb 26, following the registration of its first Covid-19 case on...
  82. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Belgium and Bahrain report that the Trump pills are working: https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/bahrain-hydroxychloroquine-success-response-covid-19. India (largest producer) banned export of the drug today.
  83. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Nobel Prize winner is basically saying what I'm saying wrt the importance of seeing new cases slowing down: https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate
  84. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Bad example, since journalists helped manufacture consent to get us into those wars in the first place.
  85. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    New York newspaper finding the worst affected hospital in New York and making you believe that's how it is across the board is selection bias, however. That's not to say the situation is easy there. That is to say that if they had a choice between showing a hospital which is doing OK and one...
  86. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Be aware of selection bias. The press will only show you the worst. Tragedy sells subscriptions.
  87. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Jeremy Irons' performance in that movie is breathtaking throughout IMO. It's like he was born for this role. Same as Tom Cruise in "Magnolia".
  88. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    WA and CA seem to be holding steady tho. If anything in WA the new case rate seems to be going down. Which is not surprising - most people here barely go outside at all, and all the public places are closed. Testing labs are operating below capacity here, too. Unfortunately, no effort is being...
  89. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    I know at least one way you could get it, if you have toilet paper. :)
  90. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    It's called "anchoring", he uses this technique so often that I'm baffled that people don't recognize it at this point. Oldest trick in the book. You make an insane and unacceptable first offer, and let the other party sit on it for a while, fuming. Then you make a more acceptable offer for what...
  91. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    From the WH presser today: NY folks are leaving NY and go all over the country. Crude estimate is ~1/1000 is infected. I wonder how many people with "nu yok" accent will be shot for just being in the wrong place.
  92. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Typical, misleading graph. These need to be normalized by population.
  93. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b - more good news, this time from UK. As always, this might be bullshit, of course.
  94. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    China is much like Soviet Union. If comrade Xi said there's no epidemic, there will be no epidemic, or you go to Gulag. The actual situation on the ground may vary, of course. I don't trust China numbers for a second. The only thing we can say is at least the problem is now not too big to hide...
  95. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    See my comment about the lack of disincentive for dramatic prognostications above. Those people will delete their tweets like nothing happened if we end up like Korea (which we realistically might). An actual published paper can't be deleted though. So in a way I weigh it a little more, because...
  96. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    A paper which summarizes the current situation and points out that it's basically panic fueled by fake news, and that's actively harming the response efforts: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eci.13222. Also refutes a ton of claims made on this very thread.
  97. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    What do you mean? Almost 300K tests have been performed so far. Most of them in the past few days. This is why you're seeing a ton of "new" cases in NY. Moreover, testing capacity continues to ramp up, new, faster, less invasive tests that do not require the use of protective equipment and can...
  98. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    Too bad betting markets do not accept COVID19 bets. If that were the case, people would be able to put their money where their mouth is. As things are right now, the most prudent course of action is to make the direst, most outlandish predictions possible. If you're even remotely right, you get...
  99. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    According to Cliff himself, S. Korea is the most reliable, most thoroughly tested population we have at the moment. They also have the level of medicine similar to that you will find in the US. They are also using hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir, same as China, and same as we will...
  100. P

    Help the Fight Against COVID-19

    You don't know this, seeing that we started mass-testing just 3 days ago. Also this is not true for individual states, and in particular in WA.
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