Timeline for when tube guitar amps become obselete

I figure they'll go, but people will still hang onto them. People will brag "I still use an amp", like people who still record analog. I don't know.
 
zenaxe said:
High end audio guys and boutique tube amps will always be around and there will always be people who like stuff just because it's different, old, or collectible (just like a lot of other "obsolete" technology).
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Yea...I've got a couple of old tube Hallicrafters shortwave radios, and several others from different companies, that I light up every now and then for fun.

I love the green glow of the tuning window, and the "Boris Karloff" knobs, on a Halli that I've got...it's a blast. It's a great sounding radio to listen to voice broadcasts on...
 
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+1 on the Hallicrafters. I used to have one, and there was a real joy and nostalgia to firing it up, smelling the dust cooking inside, tweaking the BFO to tune the sideband, and just generally putting it through its paces. Then I bought an Icom solid-state job with a digital tuner. The Icom outperformed the Hallicrafters in every way, including audio quality and ease of use. It was more stable, way more versatile, and able to to do helpful things with a poor signal that the Hallicrafters couldn't touch. As fun as it was to tweak that 20-ton boat anchor, I never used it after I got the Icom, and I wound up selling it a few years later.

I think it's the same way with guitar amps. They're fun to play with, and satisfying to use, if that's what you grew up with. Now digital circuitry is overtaking the capabilities of tube amps, and that's where the market will head.
 
We are already nearly 5 years in. I give the valve amp 10 years Maybe less for most mainstream bands and guitarist. For the big concert acts? A bit longer. I can't see the big guys turfing marshall stacks out for a couple of FRFRs.
But then again, if Marshall come out with a mean FRFR stack? Well I'm in!
 
Adder said:
We are already nearly 5 years in. I give the valve amp 10 years Maybe less for most mainstream bands and guitarist. For the big concert acts? A bit longer. I can't see the big guys turfing marshall stacks out for a couple of FRFRs.
But then again, if Marshall come out with a mean FRFR stack? Well I'm in!
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The big amp stack will still be there on stage, it just might have a modeler behind it which is supplying the sound, with the real amps nothing more than stage props, as they often are today.

Tube amps will still be around though, just more of a niche product than ever before, probably catering to the higher end market.

Musicians have a love for old stuff after all. Just as folks still record on tape, there are people who will always use valve amps.
 
Adder said:
We are already nearly 5 years in. I give the valve amp 10 years Maybe less for most mainstream bands and guitarist. For the big concert acts? A bit longer. I can't see the big guys turfing marshall stacks out for a couple of FRFRs.
But then again, if Marshall come out with a mean FRFR stack? Well I'm in!
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Wow... 7 year old necro-thread bump!

And "5 years in" ? To what? The thread itself is 7 years old and the Axe Fx is obviously older than that...

I don't think tube amps will ever go away. At least, not for another 20-30 years.

Think about classic cars... Similar analogies.
 
Holy thread necroing Batman! Word to the wise for any newbie, any thread you find using the search function should be read, but not be responded too. CHECK THE LAST RESPONSE DATE! Old conversations are old because they have run their course.

As for the OP, it's not a question of when guitar tube amps will become obsolete, the real question is, when will guitar players become obsolete. Because rock music ceased being relevant decades ago. Guitar driven music is the new jazz, loved by its practitioners and a niche crowd, irrelevant to the masses.
 
unix-guy said:
Wow... 7 year old necro-thread bump!
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Whoa yea I was surprised to see my post from 2011 while reading this revived thread...heh.

Rex said:
+1 on the Hallicrafters. I used to have one, and there was a real joy and nostalgia to firing it up, smelling the dust cooking inside, tweaking the BFO to tune the sideband, and just generally putting it through its paces. Then I bought an Icom solid-state job with a digital tuner. The Icom outperformed the Hallicrafters in every way, including audio quality and ease of use. It was more stable, way more versatile, and able to to do helpful things with a poor signal that the Hallicrafters couldn't touch. As fun as it was to tweak that 20-ton boat anchor, I never used it after I got the Icom, and I wound up selling it a few years later.
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Nice...I've always wanted a nice Icom or Yaesu receiver...never got around to getting one as the ones I wanted were a fair bit of $$$.

And now you can buy an SDR (software-defined radio) device for a couple of hundred $$$, use it with a laptop/computer and you pretty much have the ultimate wide-band receiver. Those things are amazing.


There are even SDR web stations with front ends to the SDR/antenna(s):

http://websdr.org/
https://www.dxzone.com/catalog/Internet_and_Radio/WebSDR/

The waterfall graph and identification markers make for finding signals and exploring the various shortwave bands easy and fun. Most people don't have the physical space to install proper sized antennas for the various bands so WebSDR stations are great because you can take advantage of the 'super cool' antennas connected at the sites. Lot's of wacky signals to listen to..
 
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For a very minimal amount of money...

I have
1. A guitar processor that can emulate any sound ever recording on guitar pretty damn well
2. A keyboard with every instrument in the world sampled perfectly
3. Software and samples for anything/everything else
4. Software and samples for every kind of drum machine or drum sound imaginable
5. Software that in real time can add a billion dollars worth of signal chain into my microphone and emulate the best of the best outboard gear out there

And... it's so affordable for the price of a decent guitar someone else could have all of that...

And... we live in an age of terrible, awful music- new generations are looking backwards
I don't think a new band has come out to any real success in 4-5 years at least... and rock is basically dead

So... while tube amps will always be there despite being antiquated technology.... it's simple, easy, perfect.

BUT more options clearly doesn't do anyone any good.

A $50 interface gets you more tracks and recording possibilities than the beatles ever had

and- there isn't anything most of us can't do- BUT- with all we have- most people can't do shit with it.

So- it's the people, not the gear- that's the problem.
 
Jeries said:
For a very minimal amount of money...

I have
1. A guitar processor that can emulate any sound ever recording on guitar pretty damn well
2. A keyboard with every instrument in the world sampled perfectly
3. Software and samples for anything/everything else
4. Software and samples for every kind of drum machine or drum sound imaginable
5. Software that in real time can add a billion dollars worth of signal chain into my microphone and emulate the best of the best outboard gear out there

And... it's so affordable for the price of a decent guitar someone else could have all of that...

And... we live in an age of terrible, awful music- new generations are looking backwards
I don't think a new band has come out to any real success in 4-5 years at least... and rock is basically dead

So... while tube amps will always be there despite being antiquated technology.... it's simple, easy, perfect.

BUT more options clearly doesn't do anyone any good.

A $50 interface gets you more tracks and recording possibilities than the beatles ever had

and- there isn't anything most of us can't do- BUT- with all we have- most people can't do shit with it.

So- it's the people, not the gear- that's the problem.
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I reckon its because we are standing on the shoulders of giants, and find it to be intimidating. We indeed have options that the greats of the past could only dream of. But we are also burdened by what they have done. It stifles our creativity in ways that they weren't. To them rock 'n' roll was new. And when they wanted to break out of the mold, they only had to abandon the I-IV-V chord progression. Or take the first huge ass amplifiers that were coming out and start playing with feedback. We can't even do that any more because no venue will allow a huge ass stack to be cranked up to full, and if you did the sound engineer will commit gross acts of murder upon you. I don't subscribe to the idea that everything has already been done, that's just an excuse to rehash more of the same. But it takes more effort to find something new.

At the same time the great democratization of recording allows for a shitload of mediocrity to inundate us. Because most of us do not have the creativity to do something new and original with it. Neither could most musicians in the past, as I recon that 99% were just cover bands playing in the many dancehalls night after night, but at least, for better or for worse, record companies and radio stations acted as a great filter to separate the wheat from the chaff. Youtube doesn't, so we are bombarded with tone chasers and/or copy cats doing covers to show off their tone and/or skills, but not much else. And of course it also doesn't help that neither the music industry nor radio stations give one flying f*** about rock music anymore, other then exploiting what has already been published, classic rock.
 
The fact that there hasn't been a US, Canadian, or UK based factory for at least a generation or two tells you something about vacuum tube technology demand in the grand scheme of things. The few plants left producing tubes are in China, Russia, and Eastern Europe. There will never be another vacuum tube manufacturing plant opening in North America or Western Europe due to people's "not in my backyard sensibilities " combined with not a lot of demand compared to other components used in a broader range of devices.

Once the demand for tubes gets to the point where it makes no economic sense to have a big factory open, you will see the amount of tube amps decrease and become rarefied like classic cars. If it becomes really expensive or a tight market to get tubes, how many players do you think will forge ahead on a difficult road and how many will take a cheaper and easier path?

At the most optimistic, it will become niche like cassettes and vinyl are today. At the most pessimistic, it will become like market for Model A Ford clutches.

The advances in tech and the fact you could put on a convincing tube sound showing for less then $3K usd with lower noise floor and more tonal flexibility means the economics for making tube amps will reach a tipping point.

Since we are already seeing a soft market for the big cabs where many manufacturers are starting to have the internal debate as to when to stop making them, I will give it 10 years before the tube amps themselves have their manufacturing debated as not being economically feasible.

Of the yonger generations, as a sizeable population of players are female. When they hit their late 30s or 40s or 50s, how many of them do you think will be keen to heft around 30 lbs of amp and even 30 thru 100 lbs of cab? That will be the true tipping point for the amp industry when the machismo and luddite attitudes are removed.
 
dr bonkers said:
Of the yonger generations, as a sizeable population of players are female. When they hit their late 30s or 40s or 50s, how many of them do you think will be keen to heft around 30 lbs of amp and even 30 thru 100 lbs of cab? That will be the true tipping point for the amp industry when the machismo and luddite attitudes are removed.
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I don't even want to haul that much weight in amps around. And I reached that point ten years ago.
 
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