Help the Fight Against COVID-19

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levipeto said:
Most of these are from Italy and they test the shit out of everybody!
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Yup, if you want significative data about spread and mortality rate you should look at the cases in Codogno, the small town in Lombardia where the spread began. They tested pretty much the entire population in that town.

Our government literally isolated the area near that town a couple days after the contagion began but obviously it was too late and cases soon started to appear across all the country and outside.
Now schools, universities, stadiums, cinemas, theaters, etc. are closed but this probably won't prevent the virus from spreading further, at best it will slow down the contagion.
I have the feeling they're always acting too late, if they really want to stop the spread they should force everyone to stay at home for 15-20 days by closing every unnecessary commercial activity and office IMHO.
 
DLC86 said:
Yup, if you want significative data about spread and mortality rate you should look at the cases in Codogno, the small town in Lombardia where the spread began. They tested pretty much the entire population in that town.
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Where can I find the spread and mortality data on that town?
 
I'm not sure if some of the comments here are ironic, or really that stupid, sorry.

Please stop panicking and spreading bs. Worse than this little virus is this stupid hysteria.
Yes, the situation is serious. No, we're not going to die.
 
yeky83 said:
Where can I find the spread and mortality data on that town?
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A few days ago I came across a website which showed the data for every single town but cannot find anymore, I'll post it if I find it again.
By a quick search I was able to find updated data by regions but it's probably not as meaningful as data from that single town.

IMG_20200307_132004.jpg
Casi confermati= number of confirmed cases
Decessi= deaths
Guarigioni= healed

Number of tests done in Lombardia alone is around 25000 as I just heard on the news.
 
shatteredsquare said:
If you start to feel funny eat 150mg of zinc. If you still feel funny that night, eat 100mg more. Then eat 100mg of zinc per day until you feel normal, you won't get sick if you eat enough zinc, not flu not the plague, zinc would probably kill cancer itself.
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Zinc’s only purpose is as a space filler to maintain super-secondary structure in the class of metalloproteins known as Zinc-Finger Proteins, or ZNF’s (also Zifs Zips). One of a certain type of ZNF’s major function in the nucleus of a cell to bind onto DNA during repair of double strand breaks. Other zinc proteins have a role in synaptic plasticity. Some play a role in programmed cell death, or apoptosis. Zinc can also have an anti-inflammatory role, but this mechanism of action is not fully understood. Products like. Zicam are sold and consumed on a “it seems to work” basis, which is totally legal. If you were deficient, then great, having some more zinc is super. If you were already at the correct level, you’re just gonna shit out the excess.
 
unix-guy said:
My point was that we don't seem to know the numbers.

If you don't really know the numbers then any calculations are pretty much just WAG (Wild Ass Guess, for those who aren't aware ;))
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The numbers won’t be real until this has been over for quite some time. It’ll take a decade to determine the true global impact.
 
parlopower said:
The "German Administration for Citizen Protection and Disaster Relief" (Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz und Katastrophenhilfe) made a risk analysis in 2012 about a hypothetical corona virus they titled "Modi-SARS". The assumptions regarding R0, letality etc. were scarily close to the actual properties of CoVid-19. The outcome of their risk analysis, for Germany alone: 3 years until a vaccine is available (on mass vaccination scale), until then 50% of the German population had contracted it, death toll 7.5 million. Can be downloaded from their website, however, only in German.
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US did a similar thing last year called "Event 201" based on a hypothetical coronavirus outbreak. Net result: 65 million deaths.

The scary part is that they did the "exercise" right around the time the SARS-Cov-2 virus would've infected patient zero. So was it an exercise or a simulation of what to expect?
 
crdark said:
I'm not sure if some of the comments here are ironic, or really that stupid, sorry.

Please stop panicking and spreading bs. Worse than this little virus is this stupid hysteria.
Yes, the situation is serious. No, we're not going to die.
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Some of us will. Simple statistics. This forum has tens of thousands of members. At least a few hundred of us will be dead when this is all over.
 
This is the likely outcome:
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/scenario.html

While the human toll will be great the economic consequences will be equally dire. Within the next few months you'll be seeing a wave of bankruptcies starting with local restaurants, movie theaters, health clubs, etc. This will paralyze the economy causing mass layoffs at larger corporations. Then the banks will start to fail.
 
FractalAudio said:
Some of us will. Simple statistics. This forum has tens of thousands of members. At least a few hundred of us will be dead when this is all over.
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Yes, but a lot of them due to hospitals lacking proper equipment. Which is bought by people who dont need or know how to use it properly.
Old and ill people are the high risk group. The ability to spread will increase, but the death rate will likely decrease.
 
Dr. Dipwad said:
Okay, so every now and then I like to throw out ideas or arguments in front of a large group of people who can poke holes in them.

I'd like to get you guys to poke some holes in the following analysis, please. That is to say: If it's wrong, help me find out all the ways it's wrong.

The data comes from a BBC television news broadcast posted on YouTube 3 hours ago (as I type this, 9:27 p.m. EST). It gives the following figures for deaths and recoveries from coronavirus:

TOTAL KNOWN CASES THUS FAR: 101,781
CASES RESOLVED BY DYING: 3,460
CASES RESOLVED BY RECOVERY: 55,866
TOTAL RESOLVED (either died or recovered): 59,326 ( = 55,866 + 3,460 )
TOTAL CASES AS-YET UNRESOLVED (still sick): 42,455

Let's presume what is probably NOT true; namely, that the 101,781 cases currently known are ALL the cases that actually exist.

Given that presumption,
and given that 3460/59326 = 0.058322,
isn't it correct to say that,
IF a person (age, country, state-of-health, and treatment-quality unknown) contracts COVID-19,
THEN he has about a 5.8322% chance -- better than 1 in 20 -- of dying from it?

That is to say: We shouldn't be measuring the dead as a percentage of total cases, but as a percentage of resolved cases; that is, cases whose final outcome is already known.

Of the cases whose outcome is NOT already known, our best guess is that their outcomes will follow similar percentages IF their age, country, state-of-health, and treatment-quality is similar to that of the already-resolved group.

(Fortunately, now that we're learning about the virus, treatment-quality will turn out to be much better in many cases.)

Okay, done. That's the analysis. I'm not wedded to it; I just want a lot of input to improve it.

So, feel free to poke holes in it, now.

Oh, but...please poke useful holes; i.e., things not already stated/implied above. For example, please don't say, "Actually, there are probably many cases not recognized as COVID-19" ...since I already said as much. (However, if you have some way to estimate how many unrecognized cases there are, and how much that would change the outcome percentages, THAT would be useful information!)
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Apologies if someone has already chipped this idea in but there's a temporal component to both deaths & recoveries that's both unknown and unknowable but which will have a pretty dramatic effect on the statistical analysis. E.g., suppose A finds neighbor B dead and calls the authorities. B's carcass tests positive for COVID-19 and A, still asymptomatic, also tests positive. B is immediately counted as a case and death. A is removed to a quarantine facility, recovers in 3 weeks, and is thus counted as an active case for 3 weeks but counts as a recovery only 3 weeks hence. Unless the relative lengths of time between being counted as an active case and either a) recovery or b) death are identical, at least on average, then any death rate statistic will necessarily be quite flawed. How much and in what direction? Depends on the unknown and unknowable timelines in the underlying data.
 
crdark said:
Not the young though
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Yes, the very young. Below about the age of 6 especially (and past puberty in general) human children’s immune system is still very much a work in progress, which is the reason why kids all of a sudden develop allergies, leukemias, and other immunological and hematology always disorders.

Bro I went to school for this. This is my field. I actually know what I’m talking about. The only errors in anything I’ve said are of omission since I judge the complexity of what I’m going to write by the knowledge base of the audience. That’s why I’m not going to get into recombinant genes in immune cell proliferation and the thousands of other details required for a true in-depth discourse on the subject.
 
For math people.
In my country, they’ve just announced that not every sample sent will be tested from now because they begin lacking of reactive products for the the tests.
Tests will be done in severe cases.
 
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