Help the Fight Against COVID-19

Status
Not open for further replies.
That would still make it far more deadly than seasonal flu.
That may be - I wasn't making any comparisons.

My point was that we don't seem to know the numbers.

If you don't really know the numbers then any calculations are pretty much just WAG (Wild Ass Guess, for those who aren't aware ;))
 
That may be - I wasn't making any comparisons.

My point was that we don't seem to know the numbers.

If you don't really know the numbers then any calculations are pretty much just WAG (Wild Ass Guess, for those who aren't aware ;))

Yes, there is imprecision in the mortality rates. The WHO is very clear on that point. That's how statistical analysis works. There is always some imprecision. The goal isn't to eliminate imprecision. It would paralyze western civilization if we pursued the impossible goal of perfection before performing any analysis based on numbers :). Instead, you aim for precision necessary to support the analysis, and include the precision as a factor in the analysis. In this case, the precision is sufficient to support the conclusion that it is deadly. So, while you're correct that there is imprecision in the numbers, it isn't accurate to say the WHO doesn't know the numbers.

In any case, as I mentioned, it's the lack of herd immunity, not the precise mortality rate, that will be the bigger factor in the number of deaths. And hence the importance of social distancing when trying to achieve containment.

P.S.
You asked "What if?" and I was trying to answer your question. If you only meant that question rhetorically and I took you too literally, my apologies :).
 
Last edited:
Social distancing is out the window if you commute on public transit, which is a fact of life for businesses in downtown Boston unless everyone works at home.
 
I don't want to sound ignorant, or to attract the "wrath of the forumites", but... Isn't it possible the media are blowing this out of proportion and causing an unneeded widespread panic because it results in higher readership? I mean, the plain old influenza caused 21,000 deaths in Germany alone in the 2014/2015 season (but influenza doesn't sell newspapers). Couldn't it be the case that this "new" virus will eventually become just "another flu", coming back every year, while humans carry on with their business? I'm not trying to downplay the tragedy of these recent victims, but I am genuinely wondering if perhaps a bit of perspective is badly needed...
 
> The WHO is very clear on that point

The WHO may be, but the press and the public pick the scariest number and run with it, pretty consistently. The scariest I heard (from WHO) is 3.4%, which Joe Sixpack will interpret as 350M * 0.034 = 11.9M deaths in the US alone. Which is, quite obviously, bullshit, because what WHO meant in that case was the "case fatality rate", and not even the US case fatality rate.
 
I don't want to sound ignorant, or to attract the "wrath of the forumites", but... Isn't it possible the media are blowing this out of proportion and causing an unneeded widespread panic because it results in higher readership? I mean, the plain old influenza caused 21,000 deaths in Germany alone in the 2014/2015 season (but influenza doesn't sell newspapers). Couldn't it be the case that this "new" virus will eventually become just "another flu", coming back every year, while humans carry on with their business? I'm not trying to downplay the tragedy of these recent victims, but I am genuinely wondering if perhaps a bit of perspective is badly needed...


I personally don't care about what the media says. I did the math and that what scares me.

Don't worry about what others say. Do your math and you will get clarity!
 
I don't want to sound ignorant, or to attract the "wrath of the forumites", but... Isn't it possible the media are blowing this out of proportion and causing an unneeded widespread panic because it results in higher readership? I mean, the plain old influenza caused 21,000 deaths in Germany alone in the 2014/2015 season (but influenza doesn't sell newspapers). Couldn't it be the case that this "new" virus will eventually become just "another flu", coming back every year, while humans carry on with their business? I'm not trying to downplay the tragedy of these recent victims, but I am genuinely wondering if perhaps a bit of perspective is badly needed...

That's a good question, and I think a lot of people are wondering the same thing. It has similar symptoms and spreads in a similar manner to the flu, so could it be just another flu? The answer is: COVID19 is far more serious than seasonal flu.

First, the only reason seasonal flu doesn’t kill millions of people, instead of thousands, every year is because many people have immunity from previous years and from vaccines. This herd immunity serves as a brake to limit the seasonal flu outbreak every year. There is no such immunity in the population for COVID19 to prevent it from spreading widely.

Second, it has a higher mortality rate than seasonal flu. You can debate the exact number, but it is clearly a deadly virus.

Between these two factors, COVID19 is a far more serious threat to all of us than seasonal flu.
 
I don't want to sound ignorant, or to attract the "wrath of the forumites", but... Isn't it possible the media are blowing this out of proportion and causing an unneeded widespread panic because it results in higher readership? I mean, the plain old influenza caused 21,000 deaths in Germany alone in the 2014/2015 season (but influenza doesn't sell newspapers). Couldn't it be the case that this "new" virus will eventually become just "another flu", coming back every year, while humans carry on with their business? I'm not trying to downplay the tragedy of these recent victims, but I am genuinely wondering if perhaps a bit of perspective is badly needed...
We’re seeing exponential growth of a disease that has no cure at the moment.
 
We’re seeing exponential growth of a disease that has no cure at the moment.

Where are you seeing that? I'm seeing roughly linear growth overall, with small exponential growth in some places.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

An easy way to check if it's linear or exponential is by switching to log scale. If it were exponential (which it is not), log scale would "linearize" it. I guess you could say there is a slight exponent towards the end of the curve, but nowhere near as bad as a month ago.
 
Another thing to keep in mind, that when they say "fully recovered", they include the people who had permanent lung and/or heart damage in the process!
 
Where are you seeing that? I'm seeing roughly linear growth overall, with small exponential growth in some places.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

An easy way to check if it's linear or exponential is by switching to log scale. If it were exponential (which it is not), log scale would "linearize" it. I guess you could say there is a slight exponent towards the end of the curve, but nowhere near as bad as a month ago.
You already asked and it was answered here:
https://forum.fractalaudio.com/thre...es-options-trading.158524/page-5#post-1898771

If you need a clearer picture, go to this link, click the blue arrow and select “outside mainland China”:
https://covid19info.live/
 
I guess we'll see in a few weeks. The figure "outside China" is currently meaningless because it represents the rate of testing, not the rate of infection. As of 2 weeks ago nobody was tested. As those efforts are ramping up, you'll see exponential growth in cases even in the absence of additional infection. South Korea is linear already, and the slope is decreasing.
 
I guess we'll see in a few weeks. The figure "outside China" is currently meaningless because it represents the rate of testing, not the rate of infection. As of 2 weeks ago nobody was tested. As those efforts are ramping up, you'll see exponential growth in cases even in the absence of additional infection. South Korea is linear already, and the slope is decreasing.

Since you are lazy to take a look, here is the number of deaths outside of China, which has nothing to do with testing:

1583572784187.png
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom